John Davis Consulting

North Carolina Democrats Will Suffer Politically if Biden and DC Democrats Continue to Claim Liberal Mandate

January 28, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 2       7:13 am

Biden no longer seen as competent and effective

Many North Carolina Democrats will lose their campaigns in 2022 if President Biden and other national party leaders continue to disappoint their base and alienate independent voters by governing as if they were given a liberal mandate by voters in 2020.

How bad is it for Democrats? Well, when Chuck Todd of NBC’s Meet the Press, says that President Biden is “no longer seen as competent and effective, no longer seen as a good commander in chief,” it’s pretty bad. Todd said Biden’s low job approval could lead to a “shellacking” for Democrats this fall.

Chuck Todd’s opening commentary Sunday, January 23, 2022, was based on the results of the latest NBC News poll, conducted January 14-18, 2022, by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, Democratic and Republican polling firms respectively. The poll results show that President Biden’s job approval has plummeted by 25 points from a 14-point net positive (53% approve, 39% disapprove) in April 2021 to an 11-point net negative (43% approve, 54% disapprove).

Biden’s job approval on the economy is a dismal 38%, not surprising in light of 7% overall inflation in 2021, a 30-year high, with energy prices up 29.3% and gas prices up 49.6%, per BLS.

But the worst news for Democrats in the NBC News poll is that only 33% of Americans rank Biden as having “the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Only 32% rank Biden as having “strong leadership qualities,” or see Biden as “being competent and effective as president.”

Biden’s growing reputation for lacking competence and effectiveness has not only cost him the support of the all-important independent voters (from 68% last April to 36% in the new NBC News poll), but it’s costing him the support of base Democrats. The NBC News poll shows Biden’s job approval among Black voters down from 83% to 64%; down among young voters from 56% to 40%; down among Latino voters from 59% to 48%, and down among women voters from 61% to 51%.

Low Biden job approval means low Democratic turnout this fall

Why are Biden’s low job approval numbers so potentially catastrophic for Democrats this fall? Because the results of close political races in non-presidential election years are historically driven by the president’s job approval. If the president’s job approval is low (Biden’s 43% job approval is the second lowest in the 30-year history of the NBC News poll; second only to Trump), then party loyalists are less enthusiastic about turning out to vote.

Chuck Todd made that point Sunday, reporting that “there has been a significant drop in interest among the Democrats’ core voting groups since October: urban voters down 16 points, young voters down 17 points and African Americans down 21 points,” giving the GOP a double-digit advantage in “interest in the 2022 elections.”

Certainly President Biden has some bragging rights after his first year in office, like reversing many of President Trump’s executive orders, getting the $1.9 trillion American Rescue bill passed ($1,400 stimulus checks) and helping pass a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.

Biden can also tout the drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 3.9%, and news that the US economy grew last year by 5.7%, the fastest pace since 1984. He can take pride in the number of Americans vaccinated against Covid, from 2 million when he took office to 210 million today.

Unfortunately (for all of us), the number of Covid cases and hospitalizations has spiked this month to record highs, which explains why Biden’s job approval on his handling of the Coronavirus crashed by 25 points in the NBC News poll, from a positive of 69% last April to today’s 44%.

Democrats were not given a liberal mandate

The NBC News poll also asked voters why they voted the way they did for president in 2020. More Biden voters voted for him because they “did not like Trump or his policies” (26%) than voted for him because they “liked him or his policies” (21%). Biden did not win a liberal electoral mandate.

Congressional Democrats did not win a liberal mandate either. The US Senate is 50-50; the US House Democratic majority is 222-213. Where is the liberal mandate in those results? Furthermore, only 27% of the respondents in the NBC poll say they are liberal (32% moderate; 38% conservative).

The real reason President Biden and liberal Democrats have lost favor with voters is that they have governed as if they had a liberal mandate. The $2.2 trillion Build Back Better Act failed because there was not a liberal mandate for such a massive new social welfare and climate change bill. Where is the liberal mandate in a Senate that’s 50% Republican?

Likewise, the failure to pass the combined John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Freedom to Vote Act was because there was no liberal mandate for such a massive federalization of elections laws. Where is the liberal mandate in a 50-50 Senate with two moderate Democrats, Joe Manchin, WV, and Kristen Sinema, AZ, who frequently side with Republicans?

The arrogance of presuming a liberal mandate when one does not exist, in claiming moral authority that you have not earned, is why Biden and congressional Democrats have lost favor with voters and bungled their legislative agenda. It’s why Virginia Democrats lost all statewide offices in 2021, including governor, and Republicans recaptured the majority in the House of Delegates.

It’s why many Democrats here and around the county are at risk of losing their races in 2022.

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John N. Davis

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