John Davis Consulting

In Today’s Divided State and Nation, You Have to Start Throwing Punches Earlier and Harder to Win

 January 24, 2023       Vol. XVI, No. 1       10:13 am

“Retire or Get Fired” TV Ads Already Running for 2024 Races

“Retire or Get Fired:” It never ends. Politics. A news story in The Hill last week reported that the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee is already running attack ads against Democratic US Senators from Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three Republican-friendly states carried by former GOP President Donald Trump in 2020.

The ad campaign, titled, “Retire or Get Fired,” is targeting Montana Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin. The attack ad issues? An army of 87,000 new IRS agents. Open borders. Higher taxes. More spending. Votes with Biden.

Alarming at first glance. November 2024 is lightyears away. On the other hand, it might be working. US Sen. Joe Manchin indicated in an interview Sunday on Meet the Press that he may run as a Republican in 2024, saying, “Everything is on the table.”

Under the U.S. Constitution, you can’t govern if you don’t win a campaign for public office. And in today’s divided America, where neither political party has a guaranteed political advantage, you have to start throwing punches earlier and harder to win.

Who Really Wields the Power in US Politics?

$1.66 billion spent on US Senate races: Political fights have gotten especially ugly since the advent of unlimited campaign spending by wealthy individuals, corporations, labor unions, and independent groups following the US Supreme Court decision Citizens United in 2010. The 2022 US Senate races saw $1.66 billion spent (Democrats $898 million; GOP $743 million), per OpenSecrets.

All that money spent, $1.66 billion, yet only one seat flipped parties, retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s seat in Pennsylvania. Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz with 51% of the vote. North Carolina’s US Senate race saw Democrat Cheri Beasley and allied groups spend $57.4 million, losing to Republican Ted Budd and allies who spent $83 million to win with only 50.7%.

Who really wields the power in US politics?: But think for a minute who all that money is spent on. It’s not upper class voters. There are not enough upper class voters to win a campaign in any state or congressional district in the United States. Most ad money is spent on middle and working class voters. They are the dominant market share of the most important commodity in politics, individual votes.

Every four years, presidential contenders who dream of being the most influential political leader in the world must humble themselves for the votes of middle and working class Americans, voters who can’t afford to make a political contribution. A Bankrate national survey in 2022 revealed that only six-of-ten Americans had enough in savings to cover a $1,000 unexpected family emergency.

Yet these same voters, who live from paycheck to paycheck, have refused to allow either party to serve more than two terms in the White House since World War II, with one exception, when GOP President GHW Bush followed President Ronald Reagan in 1988, giving the GOP three terms.

In 2020, $6.5 billion was spent on the presidential race alone. Most of that money was spent by candidates who lost the argument to middle and working class voters that they were the better choice. Only $1.6 billion of the $6.5 billion in presidential campaign spending was spent either by the Joe Biden campaign ($1.04 billion) or outside groups on Biden’s behalf ($572 million).

President Donald Trump and his allies, despite wielding the power of the White House, spent $1.091 billion on a failed effort to persuade American voters that he had earned another term.

So, who really wields the power in U.S. politics? In the final analysis, power in America is in the hands of middle and working class voters. They decide who will be president, who will lead the US Senate, and who serves as Speaker of the US House.

Seven Speakers in 25 Years: Just in the last 25 years, there have been seven US House Speakerships: Republicans Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Republicans John Boehner and Paul Ryan, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, and Republican Kevin McCarthy. The U.S. House flipped from Democrat to Republican in 1994, then back to the Democrats in 2006, then back to the Republicans in 2010, then back to the Democrats in 2018, then back to the Republicans in 2022.

After nearly five decades of experience in the political vineyards, the most invaluable conclusion I have drawn is that average American middle and working class voters are absolutely in control of our national, state and local governments. They are the reason our democracy is not in peril!

In America, all leaders are accountable to middle and working class voters. In today’s divided state and nation, they are the reason you have to start throwing punches earlier and harder to win.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Check John Davis’s availability to speak in 2023 at www.johndavisconsulting.com

NC GOP Gains Supreme Court Majority and NC Senate Supermajority; Likely to Flip US House

 November 9, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 11       10:13 am

Republicans Win 5-2 Majority on NC Supreme Court

NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Republicans won the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races, flipping the NC Supreme Court from a 4 – 3 Democratic majority to a 5 – 2 Republican majority. The two new justices are Richard Dietz, who defeated Lucy Inman, and Trey Allen, who defeated Sam Ervin, IV.

Implications: Republicans will now be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please (governor can’t veto maps), expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates.

For background on the winners of the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races, see North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.

GOP Wins Supermajority in NC Senate; One Seat Short in NC House

NC SENATE & HOUSE: Republicans won a 30-seat supermajority in the 50-member NC Senate but fell one seat short in the 120-member NC House, giving Gov. Cooper the power of the veto for his final two years as governor and forcing the GOP to bargain.

DEMOCRATS WIN 35-of-37 WAKE AND MECKLENBURG SEATS: North Carolina’s two largest urban counties continue to be strongholds for Democrats running for the General Assembly, favoring Democrats in 35-of-37 of the combined state Senate and House races from Wake and Mecklenburg counties.

Democrats won 6-of-6 of the NC Senate races in Wake County, and 5-of-5 NC Senate races in Mecklenburg County. (Note: Although NC Senate 37 was won by Republican Vickie Sawyer, only 4-of-33 precincts are in Mecklenburg County; Iredell County 29 precincts.)

Wake County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. Erin Pare the only GOP winner. Mecklenburg County has 13 NC House districts. Democrats won 12-of-13, with Rep. John Bradford, III the only GOP winner.

Urban Growth Implications: Although at first glance it appears exponential urban growth is the North Carolina GOP’s greatest political threat, surrounding Republican-friendly counties are growing exponentially too, keeping the state a level playing field.

Rumor: It is rumored that several NC House Democrats are considering switching to the GOP before the 2023 session begins. If one switched, Republicans would have a 72-seat supermajority in the NC House, and the ink in Gov. Cooper’s veto pen would dry up.

Meanwhile, Republicans will enjoy a solid 71-49 advantage in the NC House. The GOP caucus will elect the Speaker, and all committee chairs will be Republican.

GOP’s Budd Wins US Senate Race; Democrat Nickel Wins US House 13

US SENATE MAJORITY YET UNDETERMINED: Republican Ted Budd defeated Democrat Cheri Beasley 50.71% to 47.08% in the race for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr.

As of this hour, the U.S. Senate majority is yet undetermined, with the majority likely decided on December 6 in a Georgia runoff election between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

As of 10:13 am this morning, Sen. Warnock had 49.4% to Walker’s 48.5%. Georgia election laws require a winning margin of at least 50%.

Democrats flipped Pennsylvania and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Arizona. The GOP flipped Nevada and are likely to hold once-vulnerable Wisconsin.

NC REPUBLICANS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there was never any doubt the Republican nominee would win. Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.

NC DEMOCRATS WON FAVORABLE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there was never any doubt the Democratic nominee would win. Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).

DEMOCRATS WIN NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, was won by Democrat Wiley Nickel, 51.32% to 48.68% for Republican Bo Hines. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hines hurt him badly in urban and suburban Wake County precincts. Plus, he simply could not overcome the fact that he was an inexperienced carpetbagger.

Messages Voters Sent With Their Votes on November 8, 2022

On November 8, 2022, there was no red wave sweeping Democrats out of power from sea to shining sea. Just as important, there was no blue wave. Nothing about the election results on Tuesday says that either party has a partisan or ideological mandate.

The economy and crime mattered a lot. So did abortion. In the suburbs, MAGA mattered; Trump hurt more than he helped. But there was no party mandate.

Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a 50-50 US Senate, or even a Senate where one of the parties has a 51 or 52 seat majority? Where is the partisan or ideological mandate in a U.S. House where one of the parties has a single digit majority out of 435 members?

The NBC News October poll included a question asking American voters what message they would be sending with their votes to those candidates who won on November 8, 2022. Six of the top eight answers were about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas.

The six messages sent to yesterday’s winners by voters are:

• Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
• More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
• Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
• Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
• Focus on the Problems Within the United States
• Listen to Your Constituents

These are cautionary political messages for both parties. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Part 2: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

October 28, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 10, Part 2       10:13 am

NOTE: This is Part 2 of a report titled, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focused on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate races. Part 2 covers races for the NC Appellate Judiciary, US House, and the NC General Assembly.

NC Supreme Court Seats Most Politically Consequential Races of 2022

WILL THE COURT FLIP? The two most politically consequential races in North Carolina this fall are for two seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court. If Republicans win one of the two, the court will flip from 4 – 3 Democratic to a 4 – 3 Republican majority.

Why is that so important? Because Republicans will then be able to redraw the congressional and legislative maps as they please, expanding their advantage in the number of districts that favor the election of GOP candidates for the remainder of the decade.

The US Supreme Court is now out of the partisan gerrymandering cases, leaving those issues to the states. Equally important, the governor of North Carolina has no authority to veto remapping legislation. Remove the Democratic state Supreme Court as an obstacle to Republican gerrymandering, and you will see new maps that boost GOP power.

WHO IS LIKELY TO WIN? If Democratic early voting turnout continues to trend below 2018 and 2020 levels, and if Republican early voting turnout continues to trend above 2018 and 2020, that plus a shift in independent voters towards GOP candidates signals it’s going to be a good night on November 8, 2022 for Republicans in the two state Supreme Court races and the four North Carolina Court of Appeals races.

EARLY VOTING TURNOUT OCT 28: 8th-day early voting turnout trends compared to same day 2018 and 2020, compliments of Mike Rusher, The Results Company:

• Democrats: down7% compared to 2018 early voting; 2.3% under 2020 turnout.
• Republicans: up8% over 2018; up 2.0% over 2020.
• Black voters: 18.5% of early voters, down from 20.3% in 2018 and 21.0% in 2020.
• Women: 52% of total, down5% below 2018 and 0.3% below 2020 (trending upward)
• Men: down3% from 2018 early voting share; up 3.4% over 2020 share.
• Unaffiliated voters are up over 2018 and 2020 (Note: independent voters breaking Republican nationally and in NC public opinion polls).
• The more Democrat-friendly under-45 age voters are lagging (31-44 age group is 9.1% of turnout; 18-30 age group only 5.5%). Over-45 year old voters are 85.4% of total.
• Over half (50.6%) of early voters thus far are the more GOP-friendly 65+ age group.

Democratic Justice Sam Ervin, IV may buck the Republican-friendly trends. He has unique positive statewide name identity because of his grandfather, Senator Sam Ervin. On the other hand, voters are so hyper-partisan right now that almost all Republicans/Lean Republican voters are more likely to vote a straight ticket in the six Appellate Judiciary races.

For background and contact for the two Supreme Court and four Court of Appeals races See the North Carolina Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide 2022.

US House: Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast

US HOUSE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. House, thereby ending 82-year-old Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reign as the most powerful Democrat in the United States Congress and most powerful woman in America.

The average net loss of the party in the White House in a midterm year is 26 House seats, suggesting the GOP will win a majority in the range of 239 seats (218 needed for majority).

NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE FAVORED: In North Carolina’s congressional races, 7-of-14 districts so clearly favor the election of Republicans that there is no doubt the Republican nominee will win. Those likely Republican winners: Representatives Virginia Foxx, Patrick McHenry, Richard Hudson, Dan Bishop, David Rouser and Greg Murphy, along with newcomer Republican Chuck Edwards, who defeated former Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the GOP primary.

NC CONGRESSIONAL RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE FAVORED: Six of NC’s 14 congressional districts so clearly favor the election of Democrats that there is no doubt the Democratic nominee will win. Those likely Democratic winners: Representatives Kathy Manning, Alma Adams and Deborah Ross, along with likely newcomers to the U.S. House Valerie Foushee (Rep. David Price’s district), Jeff Jackson (new district 14), and Don Davis (Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district).

NC’s ONLY TOSS UP DISTRICT IS U.S. HOUSE 13: U.S. House District 13, a newly reconfigured swing district that includes southern Wake County, all of Johnston County, and portions of Harnett and Wayne Counties, is likely to be won by Republican newcomer Bo Hines. Hines’s advantages include President Biden’s low job approval on the most important problems facing the country, especially the cost of living and crime.

Note: North Carolina’s court-imposed maps are for one election only. New maps next cycle.

NC General Assembly: Supermajorities Yes or No?

The growing national Republican-friendly momentum in the final days of the 2022 midterm elections is why GOP candidates are more likely than Democrats to win the swing districts in races for the North Carolina Senate and House of Representatives.

NC SENATE: Republicans have a 28-seat majority in the 50-member Senate. They need to win two swing seats to reach the supermajority threshold of 30 seats. The GOP holds all seats in districts carried by former President Trump. Flipping two Democrat-held seats is not a tall order for seasoned NC Senate political pros. Supermajority likely.

NC HOUSE: Republicans have a 69-seat majority in the 120-member House, three short of a 72-seat supermajority. A GOP supermajority has been improbable all year. Now, a rising red wave creates a real opportunity for a Republican supermajority in the NC House.

Messages Voters Will Be Sending With Their Votes This Year

The NBC News October poll includes a question asking American voters what message they will be sending with their votes to those candidates who win. Six of the top eight answers are about the importance of political leaders to focus on solving problems on the mind of most voters rather than partisan or ideological agendas. The six messages are:

• Be More Effective/Productive/Do More
• More Bipartisanship/Work for the People
• Save This Country/Turn This Country Around
• Honesty/Integrity/Trust Matters
• Focus on the Problems Within the United States
• Listen to Your Constituents

These are cautionary political messages for both parties. Contrary to what many leaders say, no one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

October 27, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 10       8:13 am

NOTE: This is Part 1 of two reports under the title, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focuses on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate majority and North Carolina’s US Senate race. Part 2 will cover the US House, the North Carolina General Assembly, and the North Carolina Appellate Judiciary races.

#1 Political Mistake Made by Democrats

DEMOCRATS’ #1 MISTAKE: The number one reason Democrats are now on track to lose majorities in both the US Senate and House, taking down many North Carolina Democrats with them, is that they have governed as if most voters are “very liberal,” when in fact, only 14% of Americans consider themselves “very liberal” (total “liberal” is  28%), per the new NBC News October poll, released Sunday.

Democrats will pay dearly on November 8 because they allowed their agenda to be dictated by the radical “woke” liberal extremists who say voters are racists if they raise concerns about rising violent crime rates and declining education achievement scores.

Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Jim Messina, former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, acknowledged the problem with Democratic extremists when he said, “We’ve got to stop listening to a very small minority of the party.”

DEMOCRATS WERE WELL WARNED: Pollsters have reported all year that voters were more concerned about the cost of living, immigration, and rising violent crime rates than about the January 6 Committee, abortion, or climate change. All year.

In my report on January 28, 2022, North Carolina Democrats Will Suffer Politically If Biden and DC Democrats Continue to Claim Liberal Mandate, I wrote, “Many North Carolina Democrats will lose their campaigns in 2022 if President Biden and other national party leaders continue to disappoint their base and alienate independent voters by governing as if they were given a liberal mandate by voters in 2020.”

The #1 problem facing the nation then and now? Inflation. The cost of living.

The new NBC News poll, jointly conducted by Democratic and Republican firms, Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, respectively, reveals that 71% of voters surveyed still say the country is “off on the wrong track,” the same number found in the March NBC News poll, with only 20% saying the country is “headed in the right direction.”

Democrats drove the country off on the wrong track by governing as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate to govern as they pleased without regard for the most important concerns of American voters.

There never was a Democratic mandate in America. Only 4-in-10 Americans think of themselves as Democrats/Lean Democratic. And, there certainly never was a “very liberal” mandate, as only 14% of Americans claim the “very liberal” label.

The GOP is about to gain power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats pay dearly for putting the priorities of a small minority of “woke” Democrats ahead of those of most voters.

Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast: US Senate

US SENATE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. Senate, thereby elevating 80-year-old GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell back to the enviable position as the most powerful Member of Congress.

The average midterm election year loss of the party in the White House is four U.S. Senate seats, giving the GOP a potential majority of 54 to 46 Democrats (includes independents who caucus with Democrats, Sen. Angus King, ME, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, VT).

REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO HOLD WI, PA, OH: Republicans are now on track to hold seats once thought vulnerable, including Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson), Pennsylvania, where GOP newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz is now, after Tuesday night’s debate, likely to defeat Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who was weakened by a stroke in May, and Ohio, where polls show Republican J.D. Vance now leading with 47.3% in the Real Clear Politics average to 45.3% for Democrat Tim Ryan.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican Ted Budd, who leads Democrat Cheri Beasley by 48.5% to 44% in the RCP average, is now likely to win North Carolina’s US Senate race.

The latest North Carolina Marist poll, conducted from October 17-20, shows inflation as the #1 “top of mind” issue facing voters and President Biden’s job approval at only 38% overall among registered voters. Even worse for Beasley, only 29% of independent voters approve of Biden’s job performance, contributing to Budd’s growing advantage in the race.

THREE GOP US SENATE PICKUPS: Three US Senate Democratic incumbents are so clearly threatened by the growing national Republican momentum that they are now more likely to lose. The three most at-risk Democrats are Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

GEORGIA: Not enough has been said about the fact that Georgia Republican US Senate nominee Herschel Walker will benefit greatly from the fact that Georgia Republicans know that they cost the GOP the U.S. Senate majority by not turning out in the two U.S. Senate runoff elections in January 2021. They will not make that mistake again.

Biden carried Georgia by only 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Look for lower turnout among likely Democratic voters for three reasons: one, cost-of-living is the number one issue on the minds of voters, two, Atlanta is number two on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 11.7%, and three, President Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average.

Walker also benefits from a well-executed campaign by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who leads Democratic challenger Stacy Abrams 51% to 44.3%, per the RCP average.

ARIZONA: Biden also carried Arizona by a slim 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the RCP average, at a time when Phoenix is number one  on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 13%.

Arizona Republican Blake Masters is also likely to defeat incumbent US Sen. Mark Kelly because of the added factor of the crisis at the border with Mexico. Only 35.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, with 60.2% disapproving.

NEVADA: Nevada GOP nominee Adam Laxalt is now leading in the polls with 46.3% to 46% for Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, per Real Clear Politics. An incumbent running behind a challenger bodes ill for Cortez Masto, especially with Republicans gaining momentum nationwide as voters lose confidence in the ability of Biden and Democrats to manage the triple threats of inflation, immigration and crime.

Democrats are likely to lose the US Senate and House because they governed as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Forecasting Likely 2022 State and Federal Election Results by the Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons

Top Ten Reasons Voters Say Nation is On the Wrong Track

September 23, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 9 8:13 am

Voters say US on Wrong Track: The September 2022 NBC News national political poll shows that almost 7-of-10 registered voters (68%) think things in the nation are off on the wrong track.

Note: I trust the NBC News poll more than most because they always have a Democratic firm (Hart Research Associates) and a Republican firm (Public Opinion Strategies) collaborate on a balanced selection of participants, an unbiased questionnaire, and a fair interpretation of the results.

Top 10 Wrong Track Reasons: The top 10 reasons, in their own words, why voters think the nation is on the wrong track are, #1. Economy/Inflation, #2. Divided Nation/Political Division, #3. Border Control/Immigration, #4. Joe Biden, #5. Gas Prices, #6. Crime/Violence/Killings, #7. Government Overreach/Corruption, #8. Cost of Living, #9. Food Prices, #10. Women’s Reproductive Rights.

Other than the two issues, Divided Nation/Political Division and Women’s Reproductive Rights, eight of the ten reasons why voters say the nation is on the wrong track are advantageous to Republicans.

Cost-of-living vs. Abortion: Question 16 in the September 2022 NBC News poll just might be the most telling. The question asked voters if “cost-of-living” or “abortion” was more important in deciding their vote for Congress. Cost-of-living was more important to 59%; abortion more important to 37%.

So why is that question so significant? Because most voters disapprove (61%) of the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, only 37% approve. Yet, cost-of-living still matters more (59%) than abortion (37%) in choosing who to vote for in a congressional race.

Bottom line, most Americans are fearful of growing inflation. The poll shows that 63% said their family income was “falling behind” the cost-of-living; only 30% said their income was “about even.”

Biden Job Approval a Drag on Democrats: Although President Biden’s overall job approval in the NBC News poll is 45%, it plummets on the issues that matter most. Only 30% approve of his handling of cost-of-living; only 40% approve of his handling of the economy in general.

Even worse, only 23% think Biden’s policies have improved economic conditions, with 47% saying Biden’s policies have hurt economic conditions. By comparison, 41% of voters said former Pres. Trump’s policies helped the economy, with only 26% saying Trump’s policies hurt the economy.

Trump Support Declining Among Republicans: Unfortunately for Trump, the same poll showing voters favoring his economic policies over Biden’s policies also shows that 56% of voters think the investigations into “alleged wrongdoing” by Trump should continue; 41% said they should not.

Most significantly, when only Republicans were asked if they were more a supporter of Donald Trump or the Republican Party, only 33% said “Supporter of Donald Trump,” with a strong GOP majority of 58% saying “Supporter of the Republican Party.”

Many Republicans are tiring of the wake of chaos that follows Trump wherever he goes. Privately, many are probably hoping that enough clear evidence of Trump’s wrongdoings will surface from the ongoing civil and criminal investigations to keep him from running in the 2024 presidential race.

There are plenty of rising stars in the Republican Party who support Trump’s views on public policy but are not as likely to leave a path of destruction in their dealings with others, including other Republicans.

MAGA Turnout: Meanwhile, the MAGA crowd is furious over the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and are likely to turn out in droves this fall. Politically, Democrats are making a big mistake thinking they can get away with indicting Republicans while running interference for their criminals.

Forecast: When voters were asked if they favored one party over the other, the answer was 40% Democrats/Leaning Democrat and 40% Republican/Leaning Republican. The same 50-50 split appeared again when voters were asked if they would prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats. Answer? 46% preferred Republican control, 46% Democratic control.

However, per the new Cook Political Report ratings of congressional races released Wednesday, Republicans have 212 seats of the 218 needed for the majority that favor the GOP candidate. Democrats have a less favorable 192 friendly districts. That means Republicans need to win only six of the 31 remaining tossup races in order to wrest control of the U.S. House from Speaker Pelosi and company.

If economic concerns of voters like cost-of-living continue as most important when deciding how to vote, and if Biden’s job approval on economic issues remains low, and if 7-of-10 Americans continue to say the country is on the wrong track, then Republicans will win most of the toss up races, giving them majorities in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, as well as solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.

END –

Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

To sign up for the John Davis Political Report and check John Davis’s availability to speak this fall, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Trump May Be a Rogue, But He’s Their Rogue, With the Same Redemptive Support You Give Your Rogues

August 15, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 8       9:13 am

Understanding the MAGA Crowd’s Loyalty to Trump

FBI Raid Boosts Trump’s GOP Support for President 2024: Despite the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago, the House January 6 Committee, charges of tax evasion, and numerous other ongoing civil and criminal investigations, 58% of Republicans now say they would back Trump for president in 2024, a new high per an August 10 Morning Consult poll. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Trump’s support among Republicans at 56%; DeSantis 18%, Pence 8%, and all others 2% or less.

To illustrate why the MAGA crowd remains loyal to Trump, I would like to tell you about former DC mayor Marion Barry. I worked in DC during his rise to power and followed his career until his death.

Marion Barry, “Mayor for Life:” Marion Barry, an African American Democrat, served four terms as mayor of Washington DC. Per Wikipedia, his first three terms from 1978 through 1990, were marred by allegations of womanizing and drug abuse, slurred words and glassy eyes during public appearances, graft and embezzlement among his employees, and the highest murder rate in the United States.

Incredibly, Marion Barry was elected to his fourth term as mayor in 1994, after serving time in federal prison on a cocaine conviction. Despite a lifetime of personal mistakes, including numerous criminal charges and convictions, he was revered by the people of DC as “Mayor for life.”

He may not be perfect, but he’s perfect for DC

FBI Sting: In 1990, Mayor Marion Barry was arrested in an FBI sting when a former-girlfriend-turned-informant lured him to a hotel room, bugged with cameras, for cocaine and sex. At trial, the judge was forced to declare a mistrial on all counts resulting from the FBI sting, because half the jury believed the prosecution had set Barry up as a part of a conspiracy. Sound familiar?

Prison: Barry was convicted in 1990 of one cocaine possession incident which had occurred the previous year. That conviction led to time in federal prison from October 1991 to April 1992.

Not perfect, but: In 1992, Marion Barry ran for City Council under the slogan, “He may not be perfect, but he’s perfect for DC.” He won with 70% of the vote. In 1994, he ran for mayor and won. Although he did not run for mayor in 1998, he did run for City Council in 2004, receiving 95% of the vote, after having been caught with marijuana and cocaine in his car by the US Park Police.

IRS Problems: In 2007, Barry was chosen as one of 50 statues for Madame Trousseau’s Wax Museum in DC, even after he plead guilty to failing to file federal tax returns. He was not sentenced to jail because it could not be proved that he willfully failed to file taxes eight years in a row.

In 2010, the Council of the District of Columbia voted 12-0 in favor of stripping Barry of all committee assignments after investigations revealed that he had benefited personally from city contract deals. In 2011, the IRS put a federal tax lien against his property because of unpaid taxes. In 2014, Barry had $2,800 in unpaid tickets for speeding and parking violations.

Racist: By today’s standards, Barry was homophobic, racist, and xenophobic, having voted against a bill to recognize same-sex marriages, and frequently expressing his resentment of immigrants, like Filipino nurses taking jobs from locals in hospitals and “those Asian people and their dirty shops.”

The rest of the Marion Barry story

Civil Rights: Marion Barry earned a master’s degree in organic chemistry from Fisk University. He became active in the civil rights movement and was arrested on numerous occasions while protesting.

In 1960, Barry was elected chairman of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC), and in 1964 became one of the founders of the Southern Student Organizing Committee (SSOC). In 1965, Barry moved to Washington DC to run the local chapter of SNCC and lead civil rights demonstrations.

Food for the Poor: In the aftermath of the 1968 riots following the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., Barry organized a program for free food distribution to poor blacks in DC neighborhoods that had been burned. He convinced the Giant Food supermarket chain to donate food, which he personally delivered. He was a member of DC’s Economic Development Committee, where he helped secure federal grants and private capital to rebuild black-owned businesses destroyed during the riots.

Education and Civic Leader: In 1971, Barry won a seat on the DC Board of Education, where he was elected president. He fought for larger budgets for education and raises for teachers. In 1974, Barry was elected as an at-large member of the DC City Council, followed by the four terms as Mayor.

Death and Memorial: Marion Barry died in 2014 at the age of 78. His tombstone reads, “Mayor for life, beloved forever.” His memorial includes a quote from Maya Angelou, “Marion Barry changed America with his unmitigated gall to stand up in the ashes of where he had fallen and came back to win.” He is buried in the Congressional Cemetery on a row with former FBI director J. Edgar Hoover.

Marion Barry’s story illustrates why the MAGA crowd remains loyal to former President Trump. He may be a rogue, but he’s their rogue, with the same redemptive support you give your rogues.

END –

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John N. Davis

 John Davis Political Report is complimentary. Feel free to circulate. Quote with attribution to John Davis, Editor, John Davis Political Report. Sign up for the John Davis Political Report or check John Davis’s availability to speak to your group this fall at www.johndavisconsulting.com

Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage

July 20, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 7       1:13 pm

Three Ticks to the Right of Center is Not Enough

North Carolina is Middle America: Per the Cook Political Report’s just-released 2022 PVI (Partisan Voter Index) study, there are 25 states more Republican-friendly than North Carolina and 25 more Democratic-friendly (includes DC). North Carolina has a slight but not failsafe advantage for Republicans (PVI score is R+3, meaning the statewide Republican average for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections is 3 points higher than the national Republican average).

For comparison: Wyoming, the most Republican of all states, has a PVI score of R+25. On the other end of the partisan spectrum, the District of Columbia has a PVI score of D+43, meaning the Democratic average is 43 points higher than the national Democratic average. Any idea how many Registered Republicans in DC? A whopping 5.37%.

More Republican than NC: The 25 states where the GOP has a greater advantage than North Carolina are Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota, Alabama, Tennessee, Nebraska, Utah, Louisiana, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, Alaska, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

More Democratic than NC: The Democratic advantage is greater than in North Carolina in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, California, New York, Washington, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Connecticut, Oregon, New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

Democrats/Republicans Share Statewide Wins: In North Carolina, Democrats and Republicans have practically an even chance of winning statewide. We have a Democratic Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor on the Council of State, along with a Republican Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and Commissioners of Agriculture, Labor, and Insurance.

Other examples demonstrating North Carolina’s shared partisan advantage: We have a Democrat majority on the Supreme Court with a Republican Chief Justice who won by 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast; Trump (49.93%) barely beat Biden (48.59%) in 2020, and GOP US Sen. Thom Tillis won only by 1.8% despite his opponent’s sensational sex scandal.

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race is Ted Budd’s to Lose

R+3 PVI + Red Wave Election Year = Advantage Republican: North Carolina is only three ticks to the right of center politically, not enough to give the GOP a predictable advantage in the U.S. Senate race to replace Sen. Richard Burr. However, the following facts from a July New York Times/Siena College Poll argue for a red wave election year, which combined with the R+3 PVI, give Republican Ted Budd the edge over Democrat Cheri Beasley:

• Biden’s overall job approval is only 33%; disapproval 60%
• 77% of Americans say the US is heading in the wrong direction
• 64% of Democrats prefer another presidential nominee in 2024
• An astounding 94% of 18 to 29-year-old Democrats want someone else

Most national forecasters agree that Budd has the advantage:

• FiveThirtyEight says the odds Ted Budd wins is 74 in 100
• Cook Political Report gives Budd “the edge” over Beasley
• RealClear Politics average of all polls shows Budd 45.6%; Beasley 41.8%
• UVA’s Sabato Crystal Ball says “Leans Republican”
• Inside Elections says “Lean Republican”

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is Ted Budd’s to lose.

The positive side of being a swing state square in the middle of all states on the partisan political spectrum is that our 35 statewide races are so competitive that we are blessed with strong leaders. Only rarely do political circumstances allow a weak candidate to prevail.

Oh sure, Democrats think all the Republicans are weak and Republicans think all the Democrats are weak. Thankfully, they are both wrong.

In the Darwinian world of North Carolina politics, only the strong survive.

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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

For complimentary copy of the John Davis Political Report, or to check John Davis’s availability to speak, go to www.johndavisconsulting.com

Swing State Republicans Create Model for Winning in November 2022 by Managing “The Trump Factor”

June 3, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 6       3:13 pm

Republicans Quietly Shift Priority to Winning Over Loyalty to Trump

GA Republicans Have Winning on Their Minds: After losing the presidential race in 2020 and both US Senate races in 2021, Georgia Republicans are now putting winning over all other considerations, including former President Trump’s vindictive primary endorsements. A May Fox News poll asked Georgia Republicans what was more important in their choice for governor, “winning,” “Trump,” or “abortion.” Those who said “Can win in November” totaled 65%. Those who said “Supports Georgia abortion ban” totaled 35%. Those who said “Is a strong Trump supporter” totaled only 25%.

Trump’s Favorability Unfazed: Now get this, the same poll that showed Georgia Republicans rejecting Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue in the race for governor by 2-to1, opting instead to stick with incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, also showed Trump with a higher favorability score than Gov. Kemp (Trump 78% favorability; 72% for Kemp).

Managing “The Trump Factor:” Republicans learned a great lesson on how to manage “The Trump Factor” from Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 campaign. The key: Youngkin neither repudiated Trump nor kissed his ring. Youngkin focused on issues important to Virginia Republicans, like the economy, taxes, virus mandates, and K-12 education issues. That strategy helped Youngkin hold Republican voters in the General Election, including Trump voters, without alienating suburban swing voters.

Trump Attacked GA Gov. Kemp Relentlessly: Ever since former GOP President Donald Trump lost his race for a second term in the White House, he has attacked Georgia GOP Governor Brian Kemp for not accepting his claim that the election in Georgia was stolen. Trump called Kemp a “fool.” He said Kemp was “a disgrace to the great people of Georgia.”

This Time GA Republicans Weren’t Having It: Despite losing 61 lawsuits claiming voter fraud and numerous recounts in states like Georgia, Trump insisted Kemp cost him the Peach State. He even told a MAGA crowd in Perry, Georgia, last September, “Georgia must replace the disaster Brian Kemp.” He even said the Democratic nominee for governor, “might be better.” But this time, Georgia Republicans weren’t having it.

May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race over 21.8% for Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue. Four of Trumps statewide candidates lost.

Republican Turnout Up; Most Trump-Endorsed Candidates Win

Republican Turnout Up; Democrats Down: Per The Washington Post, turnout among Republicans in the 10 states that have held primaries is up 32% over 2018; Democrats down 3%. In North Carolina, 55% of the May 17 primary voters voted Republican (only 43% voted in the GOP primary in the 2018 midterm elections). And, despite the high-profile losses of Trump-endorsed candidates, most are winning (list includes Trump picks with no opposition):

March 1, TX: 32 of 33 Trump candidates won. Trump-backed AG Ken Paxton won a runoff election on May 24 against George P. Bush.

May 3, OH and IN: All 22 Trump Endorsements won, including J.D. Vance, a long-shot Ohio GOP US Sen. candidate.

May 10, NE and WV: 3-of-4 Trump candidates won (lost NE gov primary).

May 17, NC, PA, ID, KY: 23 of 25 Trump candidates won, including North Carolina GOP Primary picks, US Senate candidate Ted Budd (defeated fmr Gov McCrory), and US 13 pick Bo Hines (defeated K Daughtry/R Elmers). US 11: Rep. M Cawthorn lost to Sen. Chuck Edwards, while all other GOP incumbents endorsed by Trump won their races (Reps Greg Murphy, Virginia Foxx, David Rouzer, Dan Bishop, Richard Hudson, and Patrick McHenry).

In PA, Trump’s GOP US Senate candidate Dr. Oz won following a recount; PA State Sen. Doug Mastriano won GOP nod for Gov. In ID, Sen Mike Crapo won, while ID gov Trump pick, Lt Gov Janice McGeachin, lost. KY Sen Rand Paul won.

May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race, trouncing Trump’s hand-picked challenger. Trump’s favorability score among Georgia Republicans? 78%.

Republicans in swing states have created a new model for winning in the 2022 General Election. They neither repudiate Trump nor kiss his ring. Instead, they focus on issues most important to their voters, thereby keeping loyalists enthusiastic without alienating independents.

END –

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John N. Davis

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Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17?

April 13, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 5       8:13 am

Why Only One-in-Five Republicans Support McCrory in GOP Primary

• NC GOP “Trump Republicans:” 60% of NC’s likely GOP primary voters consider themselves more a “Trump Republican” than a traditional conservative, per an April Civitas poll (Apr 1-3). Those saying, “More traditional Republican,” totaled 34.7%.
• US Senate Race: This explains why 65-year-old former Gov. Pat McCrory has only 21% support in the GOP primary race, trailing Trump-endorsed candidate, 51-year-old US Rep. Ted Budd, a Davie County gun store owner, who leads with 32%. Undecided: 39%. (Only 30% is required to win the May 17 Republican primary.)
• Key Question: Why does someone as well-known among Republicans as former Gov. McCrory have only 21% support in the GOP primary? Here is the either/or answer:
• Either his campaign team is saving its ammunition for a specific date to launch ads (timing is everything in politics and McCrory’s team knows what they are doing, having helped both Senator Richard Burr and Senator Thom Tillis win all their races);
• Or, likely GOP primary voters, the most conservative of the party faithful, think McCrory is a RINO (Republican In Name Only) who has lost two races for governor (2008 loss to Beverly Perdue and 2016 loss to Roy Cooper) and made the “mistake” of saying that Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election was “destroying democracy.”
• WRAL-TV Poll: A new WRAL-TV poll (Apr 6-10) also shows Budd leading McCrory by 10 pts (Budd 33% to McCrory’s 23%; 33% Undecided).
• Endorsements: In addition to Trump’s endorsement, Budd has the primary support of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Club for Growth Action, a conservative political fund that has spent $3.7 million on Budd’s behalf this election cycle.
• Betting Odds: Bet against McCrory? Maybe. But I would not bet against his team of seasoned pros, led by Paul Shumaker, Capitol Communications. Look for a barrage of well-targeted, data-driven ads about three weeks out.

Political Implications of New CPI Report for Cheri Beasley’s Chances

• CPI Politics: The two most politically devastating numbers in the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released Tuesday, April 12, are the 10% increase in “food at home” prices since March 2021 and the 48% year-over-year increase in gas prices.
• Biden’s Job Approval: High food and gas prices will drive down job approval numbers for all Democratic US House and Senate incumbents and weaken the potential of their newcomer candidates. Biden’s job approval, already in a downward spiral (Real Clear Politics average April 13 is 41.3% approve; 52.7% disapprove), is about to drop below 40%.
• “Putin did it!” No one is going to believe the Biden/DNC line, “Putin did it.” Bad news for Democrats in close races, like former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court Cheri Beasley, the presumptive Democratic nominee for US Senate.
• Democrat Cheri Beasley, who lost the 2020 race for NC Chief Justice to Republican Paul Newby by only 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast, will likely have an even more difficult time in 2022 considering Biden’s lousy job approval.
• Forecasts: There is a growing consensus among the nation’s leading prognosticators that the GOP nominee in NC’s US Senate race is favored to win this fall. Cook Political Report says North Carolina’s US Senate race is “Lean Republican;” Inside Elections says “Lean Republican,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball says “Lean Republican.”
• The new CPI report from the BLS, showing a year-over-year increase of 10% in “food at home” prices and 48% increase in gas prices, is what is driving the #1 problem facing the nation, “High cost of living/inflation,” so says Gallup’s March 2022 national survey.
• Bottom line: If the GOP primary were held today, Congressman Ted Budd would win with greater than 30% of the vote. If the General Election were held today, the GOP nominee would defeat the presumptive Democratic nominee, Cheri Beasley.
• Voting Information: North Carolina’s Democratic and Republican primaries are May 17. Vote by mail instructions here. In-person early voting begins Thursday, April 28, 2022, ending on Saturday, May 14, 2022. Find your early voting site here.

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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

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Democrats’ Loss of National Moral Authority Threatens Their Candidates in North Carolina this Fall

March 31, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 4       1:13 pm

Biden is the Democratic Party’s Biggest Problem

I’m not quite sure how President Biden and congressional Democrats get out of the political hole they’ve dug themselves into in time to stop a Republican takeover of the US House and Senate this fall. On their watch, per the March NBC News poll, a staggering 71% of Americans said the country is “off on the wrong track.” Democrats have lost the moral authority to lead the nation.

The #1 problem facing the nation? Inflation. The cost of living.

Per the NBC News poll, “cost of living” is the #1 problem facing the nation, with six-of-ten (62%) Americans who said they are “falling behind” the cost of living; 31% said they were “staying about even.” Only 6% said they were staying ahead of inflation.

And who or what do voters blame for the rising cost of goods and services? “President Biden and his policies” leads the list in the March NBC News poll. Only 33% of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy; 63% disapprove. Not good for Democrats when historically the results of midterm elections are driven by presidential job approval.

Following “Cost of living” and “Jobs and the economy” on the most important problems list is the “War between Russia and Ukraine.” How much confidence do Americans have in Biden’s ability to manage this crisis? Only 12% say “A great deal of confidence; 16% say “Quite a bit of confidence.” That leaves 71% who have either “Very little confidence” (44%) or “Just some confidence” (27%).

President Biden has become the Democratic Party’s biggest problem.

Growing Likelihood of Biden Resignation; President Kamala Harris

The lack of confidence in Biden’s ability to manage the nation’s reaction to the war in Ukraine will likely be even lower after the President’s recent gaffe-prone trip to Belgium and Poland, gaffes that even the Washington Post described as “a frightening pattern.”

Biden set off alarms worldwide when he suggested to members of the North Carolina-based 82^nd Airborne Division that they would soon be fighting in Ukraine, saying, “You’re going to see when you’re there ….” Biden shocked his own White House staff by saying that NATO would respond “in kind” with chemical weapons if Russia used them first.

There has been an ongoing pattern of behavior that suggests Biden is not physically fit or mentally acute enough to effectively serve out his first term as president, much less a second term. Many polls have documented voter concerns about Bidens fitness, including the NBC News poll this January that found only 33% of Americans who thought President Biden had “the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Observations like these over time led to my July 9, 2021 report titled,  Why Americans Can Expect and Republicans Should Prepare for President Kamala Harris Before 2024.

Democrats simply cannot take the risk that an 82-year-old Joe Biden will be strong enough to win a second term in 2024. Nor can they risk another Hillary Clinton disaster in the event Vice President Harris proves lacking as a presidential contender.

Unfortunately for Harris, playing second fiddle to a weak president jeopardizes her candidacy in 2024. Harris is likely more capable than the Biden White House staff will allow. She has been given the Administration’s worst self-imposed problems, like the crisis at the border with Mexico, without the authority or resources to solve them for fear she will upstage the president.

Responsibility without authority. That’s what this White House has given Harris. It’s no wonder she too is struggling with low job approval numbers.

On the other hand, to achieve the party’s aspirational goal of having a woman in the Oval Office, look for Biden to resign after the 2022 midterm elections, giving the Democratic Party what will likely be his greatest legacy, the first woman President of the United States of America.

Biden’s resignation will also give Harris the opportunity to develop the presidential timbre needed to be an effective candidate in 2024 for a full term in the White House. Frankly, it’s her only hope after being severely weakened politically by her association with Biden and his White House staff.

Weak Democrats in DC Threaten Party Nominees in NC

 A year ago, the April 2021 NBC News poll showed President Biden’s overall job approval at 53%, with only 39% disapproving. Today, only 40% approve of Biden’s job performance; 55% disapprove.

Will Democratic voters turn out when their top party leaders are such a disappointment?

The April 2021 NBC News poll showed Biden’s job approval among Black voters at 83%; it was down to 62% this March. Biden’s job approval among Latinos has dropped 20 points from 59% last April to 39%. Women from 61% approval last April to 44% in the latest NBC News poll.

Worst yet, among independent voters Biden’s job approval has plummeted 36 points from 68% last April down to 32% this March. Politically, it’s very difficult to get voters back after you lose them.

These negative trends are bad timing for Democrats everywhere, leaving little doubt that Democrats’ loss of national moral authority threatens their candidates in North Carolina this fall.

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John N. Davis

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