John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.” Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” 8/20/2010

Post: August 20, 2010, by John Davis

WEEK IN REVIEW: This week ended as it began, with Republicans enjoying favorable political winds in their sails.  On Tuesday, I pointed out that “underemployment” … which includes Americans who are unemployed and those who are working part-time but wanting full-time work … is over 18%.  Among Americans without college degrees, 23% are underemployed. Among young people in the 18-to-29-year-old age range, underemployment is at 28%.  But the most startling number is this:  almost 4 in 10 of the youngest of the young voters … those 18-to-24 years old … are underemployed.  Those voters, who were filled with enthusiasm in 2008 because of the inspiring campaign of President Obama, are now disenchanted.

Compounding the negative political fallout for Democrats of high “underemployment” is a lack of job security among those who are employed.  According  to a new study released by Gallup this week, almost 40% of those who are employed are worried that their benefits will be reduced; one in four are worried that they will be laid off or have to accept a cut in pay.

“UNDEREMPLOYMENT” TAKEAWAY: “Underemployed” voters, along with those who lack job security, are going to do one of two things on Election Day this November:  not vote or vote against the establishment … Democrats.

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL PLUMMETING: Other new numbers this week that bode ill for Democrats include President Obama’s job approval.   According to Real Clear Politics, a website that keeps a rolling average of all national polls during the previous two weeks, Obama’s job approval reached a weekly average low of only 44%.  Today, Friday, August 20, Gallup has Obama’s job approval at a three-day rolling average of only 41%, with 52% of Americans disapproving.

It’s no wonder that we are also seeing enthusiasm trending more favorably for Republicans than Democrats. This week, 44% of Republicans told Gallup that they were very enthusiastic about voting this fall. Among Democrats, only 28% said they were very enthusiastic.

WEALTHY LIBERALS SITTING ON WALLETS: According to a story in today’s Politico, “GOP outside cash has Dems scrambling,” the Democratic Party’s lack of enthusiasm is a donor phenomenon as well.[i] “Democratic operatives trying to raise money for expensive ad campaigns report that the wealthy liberals (and, to some extent, labor unions) who wrote huge checks to independent groups for advertising campaigns in the past three election cycles, are sitting on their wallets.”  The article attributes the decline in liberal money to the “lingering recession,” the “absence of a single unifying enemy” like President George W. Bush, disenchantment with the Obama political operation, and tension between the White House and organized labor.

Politico writer Kenneth Vogel notes that 7-out-of-10 of the largest and most successful independent Democratic-leaning groups from the past three election cycles are behind in their fundraising … “some by a wide margin.”

NC DEMOCRATS AND LABOR FEUDING OVER PAY-TO-PLAY POLITICS: The growing tension between organized labor and the White House became very apparent in Arkansas in June, when unions spent $3.1 million trying to defeat White House-backed US Sen. Blanche Lincoln … because she didn’t support their agenda on health care.  After being criticized by the White House for their failed effort to defeat Lincoln, AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale said, “Labor isn’t an arm of the Democratic Party.”[ii] Those are feuding words.

We have seen similar tension grow this year between organized labor in North Carolina and the state Democratic Party.  SEANC, the state employees association … an affiliate of the Service Employees International Union, worked with SEIU to create a new political party called North Carolina First.  Why?  To teach the state’s three conservative Democratic US Congressmen a lesson … because they voted against the union position on Obama’s healthcare bill.

Historically, it is Republicans who have diluted their political effectiveness with internal feuding. This year it’s the Democrats. This week we saw evidence of that split in the Democratic Party when Dana Cope, head of SEANC, attacked former state party chairman Ken Eudy for “pay to play” politics … because Eudy, who has received numerous lucrative state contracts, is planning a fundraiser at his home featuring NC Senate Democratic Caucus leaders.

NC SENATE MARTIN NESBITT SAID: About the accusation of “pay-to-play” impropriety, Senate Majority Leader Martin Nesbitt from Buncombe County said, “You can’t deny someone the right to participate in politics simply because they do business with the state.”  I agree with Sen. Nesbitt.  But I also think he should have added the following sentence: “You can deny someone business with the state if they don’t participate in Democratic Party fundraisers.”

DEMOCRATS HAVE TOUGHER HILL TO CLIMB: Democrats are masters at using the leverage of power to gain the financial advantage necessary to win close races in years when the political winds favor Republicans. But this year their challenges are far greater. They have lost their old warrior general in former Senator Tony Rand, and six members of their caucus retired leaving novice candidates in Republican-friendly territories … like the seats being vacated by Sen. Hoyle from Gaston County, Sen. Bozeman from New Hanover County, and Sen. RC Soles from Columbus County.

Several others in the Senate Democratic Caucus are seriously threatened … including four in seats once held by Republicans like Sen. John Snow from Cherokee County, Sen. Joe Sam Queen from Haywood County, Sen. Steve Goss from Watauga County and Sen. Tony Foriest  from Alamance County.

All in all, if the political trends continue the Republican friendly track of this week, we just may see Republicans make history in November with the takeover of the state senate and house.

Thanks for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

[i] http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8C2FC588-18FE-70B2-A8D1B9A2F56EB579

[ii] http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0610/AFL_to_White_House_Labor_isnt_an_arm_of_the_Democratic_Party.html