John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.^[i] Democratic consultant Gary Pearce, Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, April 7, 2010

Post: August 24, 2010, by John Davis

DEMOCRATIC LEADERS IN CRISIS – A STORM SURGE THREATENS

North Carolina Democrats have been successful for decades because of leadership, unity, and the willingness to work hard to raise the money needed to keep the majority in the state Senate and House … as well as the majority on the Council of State.  This year, an anti-establishment storm surge is threatening their shores.  However, a stormy election year is not new.  They have survived many of those.  What is new is that at a time that they need strong leadership the most, many of their leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.

EMBATTLED STATE BOARD OF ELECTIONS FINES PERDUE $30,000 TODAY: Today, the Democratic-led North Carolina State Board of Elections met in Asheville to consider evidence that Democratic Gov. Perdue cheated on her campaign finance reports by failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.  Ruling: She was fined $30,000 for failure to report the 42 campaign flights on private aircraft.  Former Democratic Gov. Mike Easley has already been fined $100,000 for breaking the rules with regards to reporting private flights.  Ironically, the Democratic Chairman of the State Board of Elections is being accused of interjecting himself improperly into a staff investigation of Gov. Perdue’s campaign reporting, and the Democratic Executive Director of the State Board of Elections is under scrutiny for allowing his partisan bias to influence his decisions in the Perdue case.  All in all, a political nightmare.

SEANC PROTESTING AT NC SENATE FUNDRAISER TONIGHT:  Tonight, the State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) will be picketing outside the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, who is hosting a fundraiser for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  SEANC has accused Eudy, CEO of a PR firm named Capstrat, of “pay-to-play” politics, for having received millions of dollars in state contracts.

NC DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN DAVID YOUNG UNDER FIRE:  Meanwhile, according to Tom Campbell in last week’s NC SPIN online report, current state Democratic Party Chairman David Young, “… has been relegated to the back seat because of the internal grumbling about his low-profile performance and the lack of any type of aggressive communication effort.”^[i] Campbell writes that a coordinate campaign for the fall is being headed up by others to pick up the slack.  Not good folks.

Young also faced criticism back home in Asheville in May because of a complaint about orange-colored water in a mobile home park he owns in Weaverville.  The Asheville Citizen-Times columnist John Boyle scolded Young in a May 27 commentary titled, Time for David Young to do the right thing, saying, “You’ve been a politician for two decades, and you head the party that stakes a claim to helping the least affluent among us. And this is how you treat the people who live in your trailer park?”  Ouch!

NC GOP CHAIRMAN TOM FETZER A “HEAT-SEEKING MISSILE”

While Young struggles to get his footing during his first election year as the head of the NC Democratic Party, Tom Fetzer, new head of the NC Republican Party, is getting high marks for successes in uniting the party, raising money, and driving the Democrats nuts.  Fetzer’s modus operandi is best described as an unrelenting, in-your-face, attack-dog style of partisan combat.

Even long-time Democratic consultant Gary Pearce has been complimentary of Fetzer’s performance as GOP chairman.  In April, Pearce wrote in his blog titled Talking About Politics, “North Carolina Republicans have an asset this year Democrats don’t have: Tom Fetzer.^[ii] Pearce noted that Fetzer was going around the state like a “heat-seeking missile,” while his Democratic counterpart is “clearly not comfortable playing the role of political hit man.”

THE STORM SURGE IS IN THE DETAILS

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you can clearly see the storm surge that threatens Democrats this fall.

• Aug. 23: Gallup says Obama’s weekly “job approval” average at a new low of 43%, and that this is his first weekly average “job disapproval” above 50%.
• “If Perdue’s numbers continue to be this poor, she will likely be a drag on Democratic legislative candidates this fall,” said Tom Jensen with Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling in April.  According to today’s POLLSTER.COM,  Perdue’s rolling average “unfavorable” is 40%; “favorable 33.3%.^[iii]
• Economic conditions are perceived as “Excellent/Good” by only 12% of Americans.
• Shakeup in the NC Senate Caucus has resulted in the departure of Sen. Basnight’s closest allies and savviest political generals.  Add the eight retirements in the Senate Democratic Caucus and you can readily see an unprecedented degree of difficulty in 2010.
• Senate Republicans are at virtual parity in mid-year Cash-on-Hand, reporting $2.4 million Cash-on-Hand to $2.5 for all Democratic candidates.
• House Republicans have the strongest and most disciplined tag-team in memory, with Minority Leader Skip Stam sharing the war duties with Minority Whip Thom Tillis.
• Republicans have stolen Obama’s playbook and say they will not be beat in early voting turnout.
• Democratic fundraising prowess is weakened by three things:  the economy, the intense investigations into campaign finance violations, and … everyone is hedging their bets.
• Loyalty dies as power wanes.  Remember, in politics, there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends.

But most of all, what is truly different about North Carolina politics as we near the Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaigns, is that at a time the Democrats need strong leadership the most, many of their top leaders are embroiled in one crisis after another.  You can handle a political storm surge provided you have strong leaders.  Without leaders, you’re in a whole lot of trouble.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

[i] http://www.ncspin.com August 19, 2010 post

[ii] Talking About Politics, The Fetzer Factor, Posted April 7, 2010

[iii] http://www.pollster.com/polls/nc/fav-perdue.php