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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”^[1] David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, The Audacity to Win, 2009

Post: August 27, 2010, by John Davis

HOW WILL OBAMA’S FALL FROM FAVOR IMPACT NC’s RACES IN 2010

Have you ever been turned off by one of those cocky conservatives … one of those sanctimonious know-it-alls who behave as if their notions of what’s best for our state and nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed?  I thought you might have.  So now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

President Obama’s job approval is at record lows because he comes across like a sanctimonious know-it-all who thinks his left-of-center notions of what’s best for our nation should be enacted with righteous indifference to the will of the governed … most of whom are either conservative or moderate.

According to a study of national ideological identity released by Gallup earlier this month, “Americans are much more likely to identify themselves politically as conservative than as liberal in 49 of 50 states.^[ii] On average, conservatives outnumber liberals by about 20 percentage points across all states. Only in the District of Columbia and Rhode Island did liberals outnumber conservatives during the first half of 2010.

The Gallup study shows that 42% of respondents this year said that they are either “conservative” or “very conservative.”  Only 20% have told Gallup they are “liberal,” with 35% of Americans say they are “moderate.”  It’s no wonder that President Obama, the highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate before winning a set of keys to the Oval Office, is struggling with high negative job approval numbers.

In his book, The Audacity to Win, President Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe writes about Obama’s “substantial ego,” recalling their first meeting in Chicago back in 2004.  He was trying to persuade Obama of the importance of allowing campaign professionals to run his U.S. Senate campaign.  “You just have to let go and trust,” Plouffe told him.  “I understand that intellectually,” said Obama, “but this is my life and career.  And I think I could probably do every job on the campaign better than the people I’ll hire to do it.”^[iii]

Sound familiar?  That’s why he is in trouble with the American public, and hurting the chances of Democrats in North Carolina this fall.  He acts as if he and the other 20% of the “liberal” voters in America know better how to solve the problems of the day than the 80% who are either conservative or moderate.

What about North Carolina … our ideological identity?  Well, according to Gallup, “Liberals” total only 16% as of mid-year 2010; “Conservatives” total 43%; “moderates” total 37%.  Looking only at the all-important Unaffiliated voters, now numbering 1.44 million in our state … nearly one in four of all voters … only 15% are “Liberals,” with 41% saying they are  “Conservatives” and with “moderates” totaling another 41%.  These are the folks who carried the state for Obama and Perdue and Hagan in 2008 … they kept the Democrats in the drivers seat.

Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst with the John W. Pope Civitas Institute in Raleigh is doing a politically invaluable four-part study of North Carolina’s “Unaffiliated” voters in a series titled, “Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling.”^[iv] In Part 3 of the series, subtitled “The Obama Effect,” Hayes makes the following startling comparison of Obama’s favorability ratings among “Unaffiliated” voters in North Carolina today as compared to 2008:

“In an October 2008 Civitas poll, weeks before the presidential election, Obama’s favorability rating with Unaffiliated voters was +15 (54% favorable, 39% unfavorable).  But in just under two years time, the tables have turned.  In a Civitas August 2010 poll of Unaffiliated voters, Obama’s favorability rating had fallen to -7 (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable).  Obama has suffered a net loss of 22 percentage points in his favorability rating and his prospects for recovery do not seem to be improving,” concludes Hayes.

Imagine running Down East this fall as a Democrat.  Does anyone really believe that those conservative Eastern North Carolina yellow-dog Democrats … formerly AKA Jessecrats … are just going to roll over like trained puppies and support the party’s candidates after being insulted time and again by the indifference of this White House to their notions of what’s right?  Many of those Down East legislative districts that have always elected Democrats are now in play.

President Obama still has a chance to minimize the negative impact his fall from favor is having on the political fortunes of North Carolina Democrats.  First, he must accept the fact that you can’t do as you please in a nation founded on the principle of respect for the “consent of the governed.”  Second, he must accept the fact that conservatives outnumber liberals by statistically significant margins in 49 of the 50 states … and that nationally and here in the old North State, 80% of us are not liberal.

Well, there you have it, now you know why the country is mad at President Barack Obama … and why North Carolina Democrats are likely to pay dearly this fall.

Thank you for reading … and listening to … the John Davis Political Report.

^[i] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

^[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/141677/Wyoming-Mississippi-Utah-Rank-Conservative-States.aspx#2

^[iii] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Viking Press, Pg. 8.

^[iv] Analyzing the State Legislative District Polling, The Obama Effect, by Chris Hayes, Senior Legislative Analyst, Civitas.