John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Republican average weekly advantages over Democrats during August are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.” Gallup News Release, August 30, 2010

Post: August 31, 2010, by John Davis

GOP HEAT WAVE BREAKS 68-YEAR-OLD RECORD DATING TO 1942

It has been hot here in Raleigh this year.  As a matter of fact, this summer we had a 102° day that broke a 61-year-old record for heat in the Triangle.  Politically, throughout the United States, it has been a long, hot summer too … especially for Republicans.  According to Gallup, when it comes to political heat, the Grand Ole Party has broken a 68-year-old record.

Yesterday, Monday, August 30, 2010, Gallup announced that Republicans had a 51% to 41% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup’s weekly tracking of 2010 congressional generic ballot.  Gallup stated that Republican weekly leads over Democrats in August “are higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942.  That’s 68 years ago … a fact that cannot be overemphasized.

August has not ended well for Democrats.  Just last week, on the economic/political fronts:

• Sales of existing homes dropped 27% from June to July, the lowest point since 1999.
• The Dow closed just below 10,000 for the first time since early July.
• On Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described the nation’s economic outlook as “inherently uncertain” and said the economy “remains vulnerable to unexpected developments.”
• ON THE POLITICAL FRONT:  In Florida last Tuesday, the Democratic Senate primary drew just over 900,000 voters; the Republican primary, more than 1,250,000.  National political observers said that independents went Republican on Tuesday in huge numbers; and that Republicans turned out big … a lot of Democrats stayed home.
• ALASKA UPSET:  Perhaps the biggest news of the day last Tuesday was the apparent upset of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who outspent her Sarah Palin and Tea Party backed opponent 20-to-1 … the outcome to be decided this week by absentee ballots.
• Also on Tuesday, the North Carolina State Board of Elections fined Democratic Gov. Perdue $30,000 for failing to disclose 42 private airplane flights in a timely manner.
• Wake County DA Colon Willoughby is reviewing the records to see if any further action is warranted.  Listen for the roar of airplane engines in those political ads this fall.
• DISSENTION IN THE DEMOCRATIC RANKS: The State Employees Association of North Carolina (SEANC) picketed the home of Ken Eudy, former head of the state Democratic Party, during a fundraiser last week for the state Senate Democratic Caucus.  According to Tom Campbell with NCSPIN, there were more uninvited protestors than invited guests.
• Campbell also reported that another NC Senate Caucus fundraiser in Linville was attended by mostly Appalachian State University folks … and that both Senators Marc Basnight and David Hoyle were reportedly pessimistic about the fall elections.
  

As if last week’s news wasn’t bad enough, now, Gallup makes two major political announcements on Monday: the GOP’s record-breaking lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot question, and, Gallup announced on Monday that Republicans have a 25-point lead over Democrats when it comes to voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall … the largest advantage of the year.

Republicans are poised to take the US House this fall; not as likely to take the US Senate … the opportunities just are not there.  However, here in North Carolina, Republicans have their best shot since 1994 of winning a majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

Coming soon to the John Davis Political Report:  Investors Political Daily.  This new feature will highlight free-market candidates who will win IF you will invest in their candidacy.  I will also keep a running count of where both parties are in the battle for the legislative majority.

WEBSITE REMODELING NEAR COMPLETION – LOOK FOR LABOR DAY LAUNCH

When you finish this report, take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see two changes:

• First, I have consolidated the two campaign finance variables … mid-year “Cash on Hand” of all candidates by party along with “Party Fundraising.”  I did this because historically candidates who do not need all of their money pass it on to the party who uses it to help other party candidates.  Ultimately, it’s all the same war chest.
• However, knowing the importance of the financial advantage in a campaign, I quadrupled the weight of the combined fundraising in the algorithm. No other variable weighs more.
• Finally, I have added the NC Obama “Job Approval” variable.  After pouring over polls all last week, it became very clear that this election is a referendum on President Obama.  This variable is tripled in the “Late Breaking Trends” algorithm.

Well, there you have it.  The week began with North Carolina Republicans continuing their partisan political advantage … by 16 points in the Senate chart, and by 12 points in the House chart.  All else being equal, the Republican momentum going into the General Election races adds 8 points to GOP state Senate candidates and 6 points to GOP state house candidates.  Remember, momentum translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.  It’s the winning difference in close races.

Thanks again for reading and listening to the John Davis political report.