John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Compare today’s 11% of Americans who rate the economy as “excellent or good” to the 74% who rated the economy as “excellent or good” during election year 2000.  All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, the last time Americans rated the economy at 11% “excellent or good, and they are not safe today.”             Late Breaking Trends, September 13, 2010

Post: September 13, 2010   by John Davis

LATE BREAKING TRENDS – NORTH CAROLINA’S DAILY PARTISAN POLITICAL ADVANTAGE FORECAST

UNDEREMPLOYMENT:  Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts you will see that Gallup reports that underemployment is back up to 18.5%, moving in the wrong direction for any vulnerable incumbent seeking reelection. Underemployment is a combination of unemployment and those who are working part-time but wishing to work full-time.

If underemployment is at 18.5% for all Americans, it’s around 28% for young Americans in the 18 to 29-year-old age group; around 38% for the youngest American workers in the 18 to 24 year-old age group. It’s little wonder that young people are disillusioned with Pres. Obama and are opting out of this election cycle.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:  Gallup also reports today that only 11% of Americans rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good.” Almost half, 46%, rate economic conditions in the country today as “poor.” The last time only 11% of Americans rated the economic conditions of the country is either “excellent or good” was 1994 … the election year that a Republican tide swept Democrats out of office throughout the 50 states. Compare that 11% to the 74% who rated the economy as either “excellent or good” in election year 2000. That was during the longest period of economic expansion in U.S. history. All incumbents were safe in the year 2000. They were not safe in 1994, and they are not safe today.

OBAMA “JOB APPROVAL”: Real Clear Politics reports today that president Obama’s average job approval continues to hover well below 50% … now at 46.3% approving and 49.3% disapproving.  Here in North Carolina, Obama’s average job disapproval is 55%, with only 43% approving of the job that he is doing as president.

CONGRESSIONAL “JOB APPROVAL”:  Congressional job approval continues to be dismal, with only 23% approving and a whopping 72% disapproving. On the generic ballot question, “If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for Congress,” Republicans enjoy a 48% to 40% advantage. Why are Democrats in such trouble? The answer is in another number from Real Clear Politics: only 29% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction; 63% say that the country is on the wrong track.

KISSELL MOST VULNERABLE NC CONGRESSMAN:  There is no question that members of Congress will take the brunt of American voter ire in November. Here in North Carolina, the most likely member of the U.S. Congress to lose is Congressman Larry Kissell, a Montgomery County Democrat, who holds the seat held by Robin Hayes, a Cabarrus County Republican, for five terms.  Kissell’s opponent is Harold Johnson, who was a sportscaster on Charlotte-based WSOC TV for decades.  According to today’s Hotline political report, Kissell is on the short list of vulnerable Democrats who will receive over $1 million to buy air time.  Hummm, he just may have a fighting chance.  Oh, wait a minute, there is a story in today’s News & Observer about a group named Americans for Job Security that plans to spend $600,000 against Kissell.  It’s all about who votes, and right now it’s the Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting.

In 2008, Democratic voters made up 55% of the voters to 45% for Republicans … in one of the most successful years for Democrats in modern political history.  However, in 2006, 2004 and 2002, more Republicans turned out than Democrats in this district.  The last election year that Republicans enjoyed the partisan momentum was 2002.  President Bush had high job approval numbers and Elizabeth Dole, who won the US Senate race, was treated like a rock star everywhere she went.  That year 54% of the voters who turned out in this district were Republicans; 46% were Democrats.  Kissell is very vulnerable.

BURR ON TRACK TO WIN REELECTION:  In the U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina, there is little doubt that U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is the odds-on favorite in his race with Sec. of State Elaine Marshall.  Burr reported $6.3 million cash-on-hand to the Federal Election Commission as of June 30; Marshall reported $188,000. Insiders say that Cal Cunningham, the Davidson County attorney who lost the primary to Marshall in May, was the preferred nominee of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington … having been perceived as the only one of the two who could defeat Sen. Burr.  Without the financial backing of the DSCC, Marshall has little hope of winning.

GOP LIKELY TO WIN MAJORITY U.S. HOUSE:  Overall, Republicans only need a net gain of 39 seats to take over the U.S. House of Representatives. Charlie Cook, the country’s most seasoned prognosticator, says that Republicans will pick up a minimum of 40 seats.  Bottom line: Republicans are very likely to take over the U.S. House.  They are not as likely to take over the U.S. Senate. Look for divided power and gridlock in Washington during the next couple of years … gridlock seasoned with the hot sauce of partisan recalcitrance.

GOP MAY WIN MAJORITY IN N.C. HOUSE:  Republicans are also on track to win a majority of the seats in the North Carolina House. If you haven’t already, take a look at my new feature Investors Political Daily. Investors Political Daily gives you a scoreboard that shows where the Democrats and Republicans are in their battle for the all-important 61 seats out of the 120-member North Carolina House.

Republicans have 59 seats that they have either already won (29), are likely to win (22), or are favored to win (8).  Democrats are trailing at 51 seats that they have either already won (11), are likely to win (28), or are favored to win (12).  Democrats will have to win all 10 of the tossup races in order to keep the majority.

NC SENATE SCOREBOARD IN TOMORROW’S INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Tomorrow you will receive the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard. One of the key variables used to forecast the outcome of state Senate and House races is the Late Breaking Trends partisan political advantage. Today, September 13, 2010, Republicans have solid partisan political advantage over Democrats in North Carolina … an advantage that translates into enthusiasm which translates into money and volunteers and fired-up candidates.

Well there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends for Monday, September 13, 2010.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.