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Investor’s Political Daily Scoreboard: If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate; Democrats have 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority; there are 5 toss up seats. Investors Political Daily, John Davis Political Report

Post: September 14, 2010, by John Davis

Investors Political Daily Says NC Senate Majority is the Republicans to Lose

INVESTORS POLITICAL DAILY: Today, the John Davis Political Report is introducing the Investors Political Daily Senate Scoreboard.  Today’s report includes the Top 10 opportunity races in the Senate those looking for free-market candidates that need help.  Investors Political Daily provides you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.  Here is today’s Senate report:

ONLY 13 NC SENATE RACES IN PLAY: Out of the 50 North Carolina Senate races, only 13 are still in play.  In 8 of the 13 races in play, one of the two candidates is “favored” … but the advantage is not an “uncontestable advantage.” There are only 5 “toss up races” out of the 50 Senate races.

DEMOCRATS HAVE 19 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily shows that Democrats have 19 of the 26 seats needed to maintain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Only one Democrat has “no opposition;” 16 are “likely winners” … because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  The most common “uncontestable advantage” is the fact that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.  An additional 2 Democrats are “favored” to win, in both cases because the voters in their district are a bit more likely to favor one party over the other … but in the volatility of 2010 politics, it’s not a sure bet.

REPUBLICANS HAVE 26 OF 26 NEEDED FOR MAJORITY: Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Republicans have 26 of the 26 seats needed to gain the majority in the North Carolina Senate.  Eleven (11) Republicans have “no opposition;” 9 are “likely winners” because they have an “uncontestable advantage.”  Once again, the most common “uncontestable advantage” is that the voters in the district strongly favor one party over the other.   Six (6) Republicans are “favored” to win.

DEMOCRATS MUST WIN ALL 5 “TOSS UP” RACES: The bottom line is this:  Democrats will have to win all 5 of the “toss up races,” and win two additional races that are now more likely to elect the Republican candidate, in order to hold the majority in the North Carolina Senate.    Republicans only need to win the races where they are “likely winners” or are “favored” in order to lead the NC Senate for the first time since 1898.

OPPORTUNITY RACES: Another feature of the Investors Political Daily is the list of Top 10 Opportunity Races for free-market advocates.  They are noted with a green checkmark.

WHAT’S DIFFERENT ABOUT 2010 THAT FAVORS A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY?

• In October of 2008, Democrats had a 47% to 37% advantage on the generic ballot question, “If the election for North Carolina legislature were held today, would you be voting for the Democrat or the Republican.”
• In September of 2010, Republicans have a 49% to 41% advantage on the generic ballot question in a recent poll by the Democratic leaning polling firm, Public Policy Polling.
• Obama has no coattails in 2010 for Democratic candidates.
• Obama had 47 headquarters in North Carolina in 2008 staffed by over 400 paid field organizers. Where are the 47 headquarters and 400 paid field organizers?
• Independent voters have flipped from 2-to-1 for the Democrats to 2-to-1 for the Republicans. Independent voters helped elect new GOP governors in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a Republican to Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat.
• Obama’s all-important base of young voters, African American voters and women, are showing significantly less interest in turning out for Democrats.
• A leadership shakeup in the Democratic Party in North Carolina, driven by scandal, retirements, a Senate caucus coup, and new leadership in the state party headquarters, has weakened the party’s ability to do battle.
• Democrats now own the economy, and at best the economy is sputtering to recover.
• Republicans are better organized than ever before and are showing clear evidence of unprecedented fundraising success.  If Republicans minimize the disparity in campaign funding that has historically helped Democrats win close races, they will win much more than a simple majority of the state Senate races.

Well, there you have it.  If the election were held today, Republicans would win the 26 seats needed for the majority in the 50-member NC Senate.  Democrats would win 19 of the 26 Senate seats needed for the majority, and the parties would likely split the 5 toss up seats, giving the GOP at least a 28 to 22 ruling majority.

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