John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.” Late Breaking Trends, September 27, 2010

September 27, 2010, by John Davis

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins political races.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

The great irony of 2010 is this: the same circumstances and decisions that drove President George W. Bush’s “Job Approval” down well below 50% — thereby hurting all Republicans — are the circumstances and decisions that have driven President Barack Obama’s “Job Approval” down below 50% — thereby hurting all Democrats.

Both Presidents Bush and Obama were/are plagued by an economic crisis, a housing crisis, a banking crisis, a loss of consumer confidence, high unemployment, an unpopular war, an unpopular congress, and unpopular decisions like financial bailouts … all leading to a loss of trust in their leadership.

The greatest irony of 2010 is this:  President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

While updating today’s Late Breaking Trends charts, I decided to take a look at where things were in North Carolina this time two years ago just to see if there were trends in place that predicted the November outcome.  During September 17 – 19, 2008, Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed GOP presidential nominee John McCain and Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama tied in North Carolina 46% to 46%.  During September 17-20, 2008, the Civitas Institute, a Republican-leaning organization based in Raleigh, conducted a statewide poll that showed McCain and Obama tied at 45% to 45%.

Public Policy Polling, the Democrat-leaning polling firm, conducted another statewide poll in North Carolina during October 25 – 26, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 49% to 48%. The Civitas Institute, the Republican-leaning group, conducted a statewide poll October 27 – 29, 2008, that showed Obama leading McCain by one point, 47% to 46%.

That’s why it came as no surprise that Obama carried the state … the trends of the day said it was coming.  That’s why today’s trends are so significant.  There is universal agreement in September of 2010 among all polling groups that the economy is the #1 concern, that the state and nation are headed in the wrong direction, that this congress is doing a lousy job, and that Obama is a drag on Democratic candidates.

Pollster.com, one of the three primary sources I use daily to update the Late Breaking Trends charts, shows President Barack Obama with a North Carolina “Favorable” rating of only 39.2%; “Unfavorable” 48.2%.  As to the all-important “Job approval,” only 43.2% of North Carolinians approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54.2% “Disapprove.”

Nationally, according to Pollster.com, Obama’s “Job Approval” is 45.4%; 50.5% “Disapprove.”  As a matter of fact, there have been 362 national polls conducted in the United States just since January, and in only 26 of the 362 is Obama’s “Job Approval” above 50%.  If you average all 362 “Job Approval” ratings, President Obama’s 2010 average is 46.9%.

One of the best known predictors in modern American political history is that if the presidents “Job Approval” is below 50% during a mid-term election year, the party of the president loses an average of 36 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.  That trend has been tracked since 1946, and holds true in 14 of the 16 midterm election years.

North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as in 2008.  Instead, what Democrats are forced to see this year is a president plagued by the same circumstances and decisions as his predecessor … and proving himself no more capable of managing the crises of the day, whether they be the war, the gulf oil spill, or the economy.

President Obama has become the president that he ran against.

There is no greater an example of that sentiment among voters than the audience member at last week’s CNBC town hall meeting, an African American woman, who said, “I’m one of your middle-class Americans.  Quite frankly, I’m exhausted. Exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the man for change I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are right now.”

Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance.  Likewise, timing has a lot to do with who wins campaigns.  Election years 2006 and 2008, were not a good time to be a Republican. This election year, 2010, is a good time to be a Republican.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Monday, September 27, 2010.

The GOP is very likely to fair well on Election Day here in North Carolina this fall, maybe even winning the majority of the seats in both houses of the General Assembly.

But don’t take my word for it.  It’s the trends of the day that say it’s coming.

Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

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