John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Pres.Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency.” Late Breaking Trends, Sept. 28, 2010

Post:  Tuesday, September 28, 2010, by John Davis

Pres. Obama blasts politically indifferent Democrats as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.”

Pres. Obama admonished unenthusiastic Democrats today by describing their lack of interest in voting as “inexcusable” and “irresponsible.” Unfortunately for Pres. Obama, that’s exactly how many Democrats would describe his priorities since taking over the presidency … “inexcusable” and “irresponsible” … especially as they relate to his handling of the economic crisis.

According to Gallup today, only 10% of Americans would rate the economic conditions of the country as either “excellent or good” combined. A total of 47% rate economic conditions in the US today as “poor.”  Especially hard-hit are the youngest of American workers.

That’s why the president is at the University of Wisconsin today … trying to shore up his relationship with young voters. Today’s Gallup.com website also shows Underemployment at 18.8% (unemployed plus those who are working part-time but seeking full-time employment.)  If you adjust the Underemployment figure for only young workers in the 18-to-24-year-old crowd, Underemployment jumps to 38%. Little wonder that the president is having such a tough time keeping his base of young voters committed to his agenda.

On the political front, according to Real Clear Politics.com today, September 28, 2010, Pres. Obama’s “job approval” is only 45%; congressional “job approval” is only 23%.  That explains why 61% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

The biggest news of the week thus far is the announcement yesterday by Civitas that Republicans now have an 11% lead on the legislative generic ballot question in North Carolina.  The question was asked, “If the election were held today for state legislature, would you be voting for the Republican or the Democrat.”  A total of 44% of North Carolina registered voters said that they would vote for the Republican; 33% said they would vote for the Democrat.

The most startling number coming out of the new Civitas poll is that Unaffiliated voters, now totaling 1,450,285 in the Ole North State (24% of all voters), favor Republicans over Democrats by a 49% to 14% advantage.

How does it all impact North Carolina’s dual battles for the majority in the state Senate and House?   Today’s Late Breaking Trends charts show North Carolina Republicans with a solid momentum advantage. On the North Carolina Senate chart, Republicans have a 59% to 41% momentum advantage. On the North Carolina House chart, Republicans have a 56% to 44% momentum advantage.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state Senate races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 27 seats in the 50 member North Carolina Senate … giving them the majority of the first time since 1898.  There are five tossup races which, if split evenly, would give the North Carolina Senate Republicans a 29 seat majority.

If you add the partisan momentum to the state house races, you will see that if the elections were held today Republicans would win at least 59 seats in the 120 member North Carolina House … with 61 needed for the majority. If Democrats and Republicans split the 10 tossup races evenly, Republicans would wind up with a majority of 64 seats to 56 seats for the Democrats.

To my dear Democrat friends I have this to say:  I know that what you are experiencing seems like an undue piling on of bad news from every front. Well, it is a piling on of bad news from every front.  But it’s critical for you to remember that the sources of the bad news are the same sources that said that you were going to have a good year in 2006 and 2008.

Since August 16, I have gone to the most respected and reliable sources for political research on a daily basis and compiled the 12 numbers that make up the Late Breaking Trends report.  These sources include Gallup, Real Clear Politics, Civitas, Pollster.com, Public Policy Polling, North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, and the NC State Board of Elections.

The trend line created by the daily compilation of these 12 numbers from these reliable sources is solid. The prevailing political winds of 2010 favor Republicans … the trends say it’s so.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, September 28, 2010.

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