Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-HOUSE-UPDATE.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC HOUSE UPDATE] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29: According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, “Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.
Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today. Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.
However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”
The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%). Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.
This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors
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[audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-29-NC-Senate.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 29 NC Senate] “Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: See handicap for all 50 Senate races and all 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily report graphics above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC Senate Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 29
Post: October 29, 2010
No changes since last week’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate report, which showed the NC Senate Republican Caucus with a likely majority of 29 senators. All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 11 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 7 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 29 wins next Tuesday, with a possibility of 30 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 26 seats in the 50-member Senate to rule.
NOTE: All 50 NC Senate races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily NC Senate report.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have only 1 candidate with NO OPPOSITION, 16 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 1 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 18 wins next Tuesday, 20 if they split the 3 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy an 18-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
The Big Differences between 2008 and 2010: The big differences in Senate races this year are money, momentum and leadership:
- The Senate Democratic Caucus’ national model political war machine fall apart with a half-dozen key retirements, especially the loss of the old war general Tony Rand.
- The Senate Republican Caucus has grown exponentially in strength and effectiveness in all areas of campaign fundamentals this cycle, from recruiting and fundraising to strategic planning and united leadership.
- Republicans have the political momentum advantage.
- Republicans have neutralized the one advantage that Democrats have always managed to dominate and parlay into winning the majority: money.
- Democratic scandals, involving Senators and caucus alums including Tony Rand, R.C. Soles and Gov. Beverly Perdue, have been a major distraction.
- Governor Perdue is a drag on all Democratic candidates with her dismal 21% “Favorable” rating.
- The big money corporate folks are hedging their bets and helping Republicans big time.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
- Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
- Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
- Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
- Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010 NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above. Investors Political Daily North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64 Post: October 28, 2010 NC House GOP
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“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010
NOTE: View all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily chart above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64
Post: October 28, 2010
NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly. All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.
Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will 
Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.
NOTE: All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.
Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates. That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.
The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.
Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” Democratic candidates. That brings their likely total to 52 wins next Tuesday, 54 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.
GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was writing yesterday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer. The headline read: N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats
Here are the highlights:
· Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October
· Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections
· Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008
· Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006
Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage. That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts. Democrats no longer have the financial advantage. Game over.
Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Please consider subscribing.
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-21.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 21] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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Advantage Democrats
“Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.” John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard
GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential
Post: Thursday, October 21, 2010, by John Davis
MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR SOLID IN NC FOR MONTHS: When I created the Late Breaking Trends tracking charts in mid-August, I expected that the double-digit advantage favoring North Carolina Republicans would tighten up as Election Day neared. It always does. It has not.
Take a look at the graphs below from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts and you will see that not only has the partisan momentum advantage favored the GOP for many months, the advantage has not dropped below 18% since early September for NC Senate races, or below 12% for NC House races.
Here are two new numbers from Gallup this week that are indicative of the overall dissatisfaction with the policies of the nation’s political leadership … numbers that are driving the GOP-friendly trend:
Obama’s Ratings at New Low: Today, Gallup reports that, “President Barack Obama’s job approval average of 44.7% marks a new quarterly low.” Gallup also reports that Obama’s “favorable rating has also reached a new low as president, at 47%,” with a majority saying he does not deserve re-election.
Satisfaction with Direction of U.S. Lowest in 30 Years: On Monday of this week, Gallup reported that only 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and that “If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years….”
The GOP is favored by 11 out of 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.
For emphasis: Not once in two months have NC Senate Democrats had an advantage on any of the 12 economic and political variables used to create the Late Breaking Trends trend line. The same is true for the NC House Democrats with one exception: the mid-year campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections showed NC House Democrats with a 2-to-1 Cash on Hand advantage. The new reports will be out next week. Look for a major tightening of the campaign funding gap, as Republicans are likely to report their best fundraising election cycle ever.
Today’s NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point advantage.
Today’s NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point advantage.
GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential
The two smartest decisions made this year by the North Carolina Republican political war generals are: #1 – To focus on economic concerns and stay away from the issues that have driven independents over to the Democrats for many election cycles; and, #2 – To invest early and heavily in a voter turnout operation designed to give them the advantage in early voting and Election Day turnout.
They’ve done a good job with decision #1. We’ll have to wait until Election Day to see what kind of job they are doing with decision #2 … the turnout operation. That will decide their fate.
The GOP leaders in the state and nation should thank their lucky stars for the Tea Party movement, and should be commended for embracing them rather than trying to convert them. The Tea Partiers set the agenda for this election cycle and kept it focused on economic matters. That’s why it has been so successful.
Tea Party detractors, from day one, have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down. Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.
That’s where we are in America today. Tea Partiers are voters who, like our Boston ancestors in 1773, feel like their concerns are not being respected by governmental leaders. Unlike their Boston ancestors, they are looking for something to throw overboard besides tea.
If the GOP is given the opportunity to lead in Raleigh and Washington, they just may be able to keep the powerful new conservative/independent majority coalition together for many election cycles to come … IF, and only if, they keep their economic agenda front and center and do not allow themselves to be defined by their social agenda.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
For a profile of the Tea Party folks read my April 13, 2010 John Davis Political Report titled, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard.
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Thursday, October 21, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
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Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-19.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 19] “Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last
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“Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men among early voters since last Thursday.
Post: October 19, 2010, by John Davis
NOTE: View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.
Investors Political Daily
North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast
NC House GOP Likely to Win 62 Seats; Final Count Likely a 65/55 GOP Majority
Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House chart and you will see for the first time that the North Carolina House Republican Caucus now has 62 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today. Democrats have 52 seats that they would likely win if the elections were held today.
If the two parties split the 6 toss-up races, the final count will be 65 Republicans in the North Carolina House, 55 Democrats.
The two changes on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House charts are:
- House District 116: This Buncombe County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Jane Whilden against GOP challenger Tim Moffitt, has been moved from “Toss up” to Moffitt “Favored.” The move was based on new polling released Monday, the voting history of the district (held for six terms by Republican Rep. Wilma Sherrill), and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.
- House District 9: This Pitt County race, pitting incumbent Democrat Marian McLawhorn against GOP challenger Stan Larson, has now been moved from McLawhorn “Favored” to a “Toss-up.” The move was based on recent polling that showed McLawhorn trailing her Republican opponent outside the margin of error, and the overall 2010 GOP-friendly trends … especially those relating to the constituencies most likely to vote in higher numbers.
What the 55 State Legislative Polls Say: A historic number of state legislative polls have been conducted this election cycle: 23 Senate races; 32 House races. Here is the consistent pattern:
- There is greater enthusiasm among Republicans for Republican candidates than among Democrats for Democratic candidates
- Unaffiliated and self-described independent voters are breaking 2-to-1 Republican
- Republicans are consistently shown to be the most likely to vote by far in 2010
- There is a universal dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and nation and the “Job Approval” of those with power in Washington and Raleigh … all Democrats.
Thanks to the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, all of the 55 legislative poll results can be seen by linking to the NCFEF Poll Tracker report.
Most of the polling has been done by Civitas and the Carolina Strategy Group. Check out the Civitas polls here. Check out the Carolina Strategy Group polls here.
Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a 12-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
NC Senate GOP Likely to Win 29 Seats; Final Count Likely a 30/20 GOP Majority
The change on today’s Investors Political Daily NC Senate chart is in Senate District 116, a Pitt, Wayne, Green County race pitting incumbent Democrat Don Davis against GOP challenger Rep. Louis Pate. The race has been moved from “Toss up” to Pate “Favored.”
The move was based on these facts:
- Davis won by only 53% of the vote in 2008, in one of the most Democratic-dominated turnout of voters in modern political history in North Carolina … driven by a year-long commitment of resources by the Obama campaign. Without the historic voter registration and turnout machine of 2008, Davis cannot win.
- Davis is from Green County, which has less than 10% of the district’s voters. Pate is from Wayne County, which, along with Pitt County, split the lion’s share of the voters in the district.
- As of the first three days of early voting, Wayne County is in the top 10 counties in the state for early voting of white Republican men.
Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate chart and you will see that NC Senate Republicans continue to enjoy a 16-point partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.
White Republican Men Lead Record Pace of Early Voting was the headline of yesterday’s Democracy North Carolina press release, reporting the results of the first three days of early voting. “Two years ago, black Democratic women led all groups in the 17-day early voting period,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, noting the remarkable shift to white Republican men.
What caused the dramatic shift in political fortunes? An economy in crisis was the driving force in 2008; the economy is the driving force in 2010.
In 2008, we were disappointed with our leaders in Washington, especially Republicans, and we made our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box. In 2010, we are again disappointed with our leaders, who happen to be Democrats both in Washington and Raleigh. You can count on us to make our sentiments perfectly clear at the ballot box throughout early voting and on Election Day.
The Democrats are in trouble for exactly the same reasons that got the Republicans in hot water during the past two election cycles. They have failed to make the case that they can govern better.
Timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance. Timing also has a lot to do with who wins campaigns. In 2010, timing favors Republicans.
Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool
Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics. You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district. It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina. Click here to try it out.
Well, there you have it. Investors Political Daily, October 19, 2010.
Republicans can count on 62 seats in the 120-member NC House, 65 if the “toss-up” races split.
Republicans can count on 29 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Late-Breaking-Trends-Oct-15.mp3|titles=Late Breaking Trends Oct 15] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “But it [anger of the electorate] is not inchoate irrational anger — a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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“But it [anger of the electorate] is not inchoate irrational anger — a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.” Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 15, 2010
Beware of Stampeding Elephants
Post: Friday, October 15, 2010, by John Davis
Public debt has political consequences. That’s the #1 takeaway from the 2010 election cycle. Here is #2: Run over conservative and moderate 
Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril. If you do, beware; you may just create a retaliatory herd of stampeding elephants.
Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see that North Carolina Republicans continue a partisan momentum advantage that has not wavered for months
Here are the latest economic numbers driving the stampede:
Economic News Keeps Obama & Democrats on Defensive
- U.S. budget deficit over $1 trillion two consecutive years
- Over 100,000 foreclosures in September, record high
- U.S. trade deficit $46.35 billion in August
- U.S. imports jumped 2.1%, while exports rose 0.2%.
- Unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 462,000 in the latest week
- Only 13% of Americans rate the country’s economic as “Excellent/Good”
Public debt has consequences. As Charles Krauthammer noted in today’s Washington Post, the anger of the electorate today is not “a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.”
Obamamania Wanes Among College Students: A new Associated Press-mtvU poll released Wednesday of this week found that President Obama’s “Job Approval” among college students has plummeted from 60% in May 2009 to 44% today. According to Alan Fram with the Huffington Post, these new numbers are “a fresh sign of trouble for Democrats struggling to rekindle enthusiasm among many of these newest voters for the crucial midterm elections.”
Last night, at an event hosted by MTV, CMT and BET, the president was put on the spot by young voters who questioned why they should vote for him again in 2012.
Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts were Early Signals of a New “Change” Agenda: Clear evidence of disillusioned young Obama zealots could be seen last November in Virginia, where only 10% of 18 to 24-year old voters turned out compared to 21% in 2008. Obama’s 2-to-1 advantage among young people melted into a 51% support for the Democrat. The Republican won.
New Jersey Independents: As significant as the Democratic loss of enthusiastic young voters is the loss of Independent voters. In New Jersey, Independent voters were 2-to-1 behind Obama in 2008. Last November, 58% of the Independent voters chose the Republican Chris Christie in the governor’s race. Christie won.
Massachusetts Independents: Democrats also lost their advantage among Independent voters in Massachusetts, where Democrats enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters who flip-flopped 2-to-1 to Scott Brown, the GOP nominee. A Republican in a pickup truck won Ted Kennedy’s seat with the message “we need to change Washington.” Sound familiar?
Top takeaways from the 2010 election cycle are likely to be:
- Public debt has political consequences.
- Obama voters cannot be presumed to be Democratic voters.
- If you are the #1 highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate, and you become president, run over conservative and moderate Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril.
- Beware of wishing for all of the power; you just may wind up with all of the blame.
- Obama lost the “change” agenda when he became the president he ran against. (See slides below)
How did Obama and the Democrats lose the “change” message?
Take a look at these two slides from my latest speech, North Carolina Politics 2010 – Battle for the Majority in the Senate and House, and you will see that most of problems that lead to the Republican disaster in 2008 are now the problems leading to a disastrous year for the Democrats in 2010.
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Well, there you have it. Late Breaking Trends, Friday, October 15, 2010. All indicators point to a stampede of angry Republicans to the polls, dominating early voting between now and Election Day … driven by lack of respect shown by the current leadership in Washington and Raleigh for the simple notion that public debt has consequence.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
URGE YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Investors-Political-Daily-Oct-12.mp3|titles=Investors Political Daily Oct 12] If Obama voters didn’t turn out for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, or for the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, why would they turn out for Tony Foriest’s seat in the NC Senate?
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If Obama voters didn’t turn out for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, or for the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, why would they turn out for Tony Foriest’s seat in the NC Senate? As it turns out, Obama voters were inspired by Obama … not by the Democratic Party.” Investors Political Daily, October 12, 2010
Post: October 12, 2010, by John Davis
NOTE: View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.
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NC Senate Forecast Update Oct 12, 2010: Republicans Up to 28 Democratic Sen. John Snow likely to lose GOP-friendly seat: Sen. John Snow, D-Cherokee, is down by 16 points in the latest poll conducted by Survey USA for Civitas. According to the October poll, GOP Challenger Jim Davis, R-Macon, is leading Snow by 53% to 37%. Any Democrat incumbent trailing a strong Republican opponent by 16% in a GOP-friendly district in a GOP-friendly year is likely to lose. Remember, this seat was held for 8 terms (that’s 16 years) by Republican Senator Bob Carpenter. Davis is a Macon County Commissioner and orthodontist. Republicans can count on 28 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split. Snow seat can now be added to these seats likely to flip GOP: Open seats held by R.C. Soles (D-Columbus), David Hoyle (D-Gaston) and Julia Boseman (D-New Hanover); Sen. Steve Goss (D-Watauga), whose opponent, Dan Soucek, had a 48% to 41% advantage in mid-September; Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood), whose opponent, Ralph Hise, had a 50% to 38% advantage in mid-September; Tony Foriest (D-Alamance), detailed below, and A.B. Swindell (D-Nash), where an Oct. 11 Civitas report says Buck Newton (R-Nash) has a 50% to 40% lead. Other seats within reach of a GOP pickup are: Sen. Don Davis (his Green County has less than 10% of district’s voters; low African American turnout will doom him), and Sen. Katie Dorsett’s seat, where her last-minute withdrawal has led to divided Democrats and a possible GOP upset. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. R.C. Soles, No Sen. David Hoyle, No Sen. Julia Boseman, No Sen. Tony Foriest Here’s the best political joke I’ve heard this year: A North Carolina Democrat goes into a bar, orders a drink and says to the bartender, “Can you believe those big corporations are helping Republicans buy elections!” Isn’t that a hoot? Big North Carolina corporations have been helping Democrats keep Republicans out of power in the North Carolina General Assembly for decades. Democrats would have had to share power long ago if they had not muscled big corporations with little political courage into giving them a disproportionate share of their contributions … thereby enabling Democrats to buy undue influence in GOP and Swing districts; and ultimately, undue influence over the state budget. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. R.C. Soles: In 2008, R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, spent $839,000 to only $179,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Betty Fennell, R-New Hanover, and still only got 49% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. R.C. Soles. GOP nominee Bill Rabon, the likely winner, has maintained a 15% advantage over Democrat David Redwine since the primary. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. Julia Boseman: Julia Boseman, D-New Hanover, spent $871,000 to only $250,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Michael Lee, R-New Hanover, and won with only 52% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. Julia Boseman. GOP nominee Thom Goolsby, the likely winner, has maintained a 15% + advantage over Democrat Jim Leutze since the primary. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. David Hoyle: David Hoyle, D-Gaston, spent $645,000 to only $151,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Kathy Harrington, R-Gaston, and won with only 51% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. David Hoyle. GOP nominee Kathy Harrington, the likely winner, had a 56% to 28% advantage over her Democratic opponent after the May primary. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. Tony Foriest: In 2008, Sen. Tony Forrest, D-Alamance, spent $647,000 to $387,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Rick Gunn, R-Alamance, and won with only 52% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008? No Sen. Tony Foriest. GOP nominee Rick Gunn, the likely winner, has maintained a 4% + advantage over Democrat incumbent Tony Foriest since late August polling. Take away the Obama-driven historic Democratic registration and turnout of 2008, throw in a GOP-friendly turnout year, and level the financial commitment … Gunn will win. No Obama in 2008? No Sen. R.C. Soles, No Sen. David Hoyle, No Sen. Don Davis, No Sen. Julia Boseman, No Sen. Tony Foriest … No NC Senate Democratic Majority. Sen. Foriest’s challenge is how to get the Obama voter back to the polls this fall … without which he cannot win. The Obama voter didn’t show up in VA, NJ or Massachusetts, leading to two new Republican governors and a Republican in U.S. Senator Teddy Kennedy’s seat. If Obama voters didn’t turn out for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, or for the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, why would they turn out for Tony Foriest’s seat in the NC Senate? As it turns out, Obama voters were inspired by Obama … not by the Democratic Party. Well, there you have it. Sen. John Snow, D-Cherokee, is down by 16 points in the latest poll conducted by Survey USA for Civitas. Any Democrat incumbent trailing a strong Republican opponent by 16% in a GOP-friendly district in a GOP-friendly year is likely to lose. Republicans can count on 28 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split. Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report. |
Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/October-8-2010.mp3|titles=October 8 2010] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races
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“Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.” Late Breaking Trends, Oct 8, 2010
JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR
Post: Friday, October 8, 2010, by John Davis
JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR: Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for the remainder of this election cycle.
Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working. This was the last chance to show positive results. Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14. It’s now about turnout.
LATE BREAKING TRENDS: The GOP is favored by all 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.
NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.
NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.
TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT: Democrats could still minimize the political damage on November 2 by if they have a few turnout tricks up their sleeves. It happened in 1998, when the Clinton/Lewinski affair had everyone certain that defeated Democrats were going to litter the political battlefield that November. Instead, Democrats invested $30 million in a turnout operation that saved the day … helping John Edwards defeat GOP US Senator Louch Faicloth and helping Democrats retake the majority in the NC House.
Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage. It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.
Gallup’s new study of likely voters that gives the GOP an unprecedented 18% advantage under the typical mid-term election year “lower turnout” model.
- Gallup says that IF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS VOTED, the GOP would have a 46% to 43% advantage over Democrats in congressional balloting.
- Looking only at “Likely voters” in the typical mid-year lower turnout, the GOP would have a 56% to 38% advantage.
- Even in an unusually high mid-term turnout scenario, the GOP advantage would be 53% to 40%.
Total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2008 in North Carolina was 70%.
However, the total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2006, the last mid-term election year, was 37% … in North Carolina. Low turnout scenario hightens GOP advantage.
Enthusiasm Gap … Democrats have never been thrilled about voting in midterm elections says Jamelle Bouie in The American Prospect. Bouie cites the following stats:
- In 2006, young voters were only 12 percent of the electorate (compared with 18 percent in 2008).
- Likewise, African Americans were only 10 percent of the electorate (compared with 13 percent in 2008).
- According to Gallup’s late September polling, only 28 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about their party’s candidates in the midterm elections, compared with 47 percent of Republicans.
- This isn’t just a blip in the polls; since March, the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats hasn’t dipped below 10 points.
CHECK OUT TODAY’S LATE BREAKING TRENDS CHARTS:
NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.
NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.
Gallup today, October 8, 2010, shows only 13% of Americans rate economic conditions as “Excellent or Good;” 42% say “Poor.”
Real Clear Politics today, October 8, 2010, shows:
- 61% of Amercans say the country is headed in the “Wrong track;” 33% “Right Direction”
- 49% of Americans “Disapprove” of the job President Obama is doing; 45% “Approve”
- 72% “Disapprove” of the job congress is doing; 21% approve
Pollster.com shows that 55% of NC voters “Disapprove” of the job Obama is doing; 43% “Approve.”
Public Policy Polling, Oct. 1 News Release: GOP Leads Dems on Generic Legislative Ballot by 8 Points. “Democrats control both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly, but they still trail generic GOP candidates, 50-42, about the same as last month’s 49-41.”
October 4 Civitas News Release shows President Obama’s “Job Approval” in North Carolina at 42% among likely voters; 55% of likely voters disapprove.
Early Voting Begins Next Thursday, Oct. 14
Early voting sites for the November 2, 2010 General Election are now available from the NC State Board of Elections. Click here for a complete listing of the sites in your county.
Today’s USA Today carried a front page story Thursday, October 7, 2010, titled Early primary ballots rose 50% in 2010 over the last mid-term election year … 2006.
FOR EMPHASIS:
JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR: Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.
Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working. This was the last chance to show positive results. Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14. It’s now about turnout.
Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage. It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.
Next Thursday, we will begin to see who has the most well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
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In the last couple of months, I have worked to add value to the John Davis Political Report by shifting the emphasis to more immediately useful features like Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily. I hope that you will urge your friends and associates to stay on top of the daily Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following subscriptions:
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates “Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That’s fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they’re planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they’ll go back in
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Investment Opportunities for Free-Market Advocates |
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“Republicans continue to hold a 50-42 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That’s fueled mainly by a 50-27 advantage with independents and an incredible degree of GOP unity. While 17% of Democrats say they’re planning to support Republican candidates this fall, only 2% of Republicans say they’ll go back in the other direction and vote Democratic.” Public Policy Polling, October 1, 2010
Post: October 4, 2010, by John Davis
NOTE: View all 50 Senate races and all 120 House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily charts above.
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NC Senate Forecast Update Oct 4, 2010: Republicans 27; Democrats 18; Toss-up 5 If the elections were held today, Republicans would win a majority of the 50 seats in the NC Senate. Only 26 seats are needed for the majority. The GOP has not led the state Senate since 1898.
NC House Forecast Update Oct 4, 2010: Republicans 60; Democrats 52; Toss-up 8 If the elections were held today, Republicans would win a majority of the 120 seats in the NC House. Only 61 seats are needed for the majority. The GOP has not led the state House since 1999.
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Well, there you have it. October 4, 2010. According to Investors Political Daily, the GOP is well positioned to win the majority in both the NC Senate and House in November.
Don’t forget, the John Davis Political Report is now accessible only with a username and password. I hope that you will choose to stay on top of the Late Breaking Trends and Investors Political Daily by purchasing one of the following four levels of subscription:
Trial Subscription $4.85 Two Weeks
Individual Subscription $48.50 Annual Individuals and Small Business
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Consultation Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe today.
And as always, thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report!
SUBSCRIBE TODAY! I hope you enjoy the new Investors Political Daily feature of the John Davis Political Report. I urge you to subscribe to the report this week.
The John Davis Political Report is available for “Individuals” and “Small Business” folks at only $48.50 per year. The Premium Subscription is available to all other businesses or trade associations at $485 per year. The Advantage subscription, which includes a consultation relationship, is available on a quarterly payment plan.
Remember, the John Davis Political Report focuses exclusively on providing you with investment information for your political resources … your time and your money.
Invest wisely in 2010 by subscribing today to the John Davis Political Report.
Thank you for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.