John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.” Late Breaking Trends, Oct 8, 2010

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR

Post:  Friday, October 8, 2010, by John Davis

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR:  Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for the remainder of this election cycle.

Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working.  This was the last chance to show positive results.  Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14.  It’s now about turnout.

LATE BREAKING TRENDS:  The GOP is favored by all 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.

NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.

NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.

TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT:  Democrats could still minimize the political damage on November 2 by if they have a few turnout tricks up their sleeves.  It happened in 1998, when the Clinton/Lewinski affair had everyone certain that defeated Democrats were going to litter the political battlefield that November.  Instead, Democrats invested $30 million in a turnout operation that saved the day … helping John Edwards defeat GOP US Senator Louch Faicloth and helping Democrats retake the majority in the NC House.

Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage.  It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Gallup’s new study of likely voters that gives the GOP an unprecedented 18% advantage under the typical mid-term election year “lower turnout” model.

• Gallup says that IF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS VOTED, the GOP would have a 46% to 43% advantage over Democrats in congressional balloting.
• Looking only at “Likely voters” in the typical mid-year lower turnout, the GOP would have a 56% to 38% advantage.
• Even in an unusually high mid-term turnout scenario, the GOP advantage would be 53% to 40%.

Total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2008 in North Carolina was 70%.

However, the total percentage turnout of all registered voters in 2006, the last mid-term election year, was 37% … in North Carolina.  Low turnout scenario hightens GOP advantage.

Enthusiasm Gap … Democrats have never been thrilled about voting in midterm elections says Jamelle Bouie in The American Prospect.  Bouie cites the following stats:

• In 2006, young voters were only 12 percent of the electorate (compared with 18 percent in 2008).
• Likewise, African Americans were only 10 percent of the electorate (compared with 13 percent in 2008).
• According to Gallup’s late September polling, only 28 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about their party’s candidates in the midterm elections, compared with 47 percent of Republicans.
• This isn’t just a blip in the polls; since March, the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats hasn’t dipped below 10 points.

CHECK OUT TODAY’S LATE BREAKING TRENDS CHARTS: 

NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point momentum advantage.

NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point momentum advantage.

Gallup today, October 8, 2010, shows only 13% of Americans rate economic conditions as “Excellent or Good;” 42% say “Poor.”

Real Clear Politics today, October 8, 2010, shows:

• 61% of Amercans say the country is headed in the “Wrong track;” 33% “Right Direction”
• 49% of Americans “Disapprove” of the job President Obama is doing; 45% “Approve”
• 72% “Disapprove” of the job congress is doing; 21% approve

Pollster.com shows that 55% of NC voters “Disapprove” of the job Obama is doing; 43% “Approve.”

Public Policy Polling, Oct. 1 News Release:  GOP Leads Dems on Generic Legislative Ballot by 8 Points. “Democrats control both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly, but they still trail generic GOP candidates, 50-42, about the same as last month’s 49-41.”

October 4 Civitas News Release shows President Obama’s “Job Approval” in North Carolina at 42% among likely voters; 55% of likely voters disapprove.

Early Voting Begins Next Thursday, Oct. 14

Early voting sites for the November 2, 2010 General Election are now available from the NC State Board of Elections.  Click here for a complete listing of the sites in your county.

Today’s USA Today carried a front page story Thursday, October 7, 2010, titled Early primary ballots rose 50% in 2010 over the last mid-term election year … 2006.

FOR EMPHASIS:

JOBS REPORT LOCKS MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR:  Today’s US Labor Department report that the economy lost a total of 95,000 jobs in September was worse than anticipated, virtually locking in the momentum advantage in the favor of Republican candidates for this election cycle.

Economic issues have been #1 all year, with growing doubt among Americans about whether the policies of the Obama Administration aimed at recovery are working.  This was the last chance to show positive results.  Election day in North Carolina begins next Thursday, October 14.  It’s now about turnout.

Turnout is driven only in part by the partisan momentum advantage.  It is driven equally by a well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Next Thursday, we will begin to see who has the most well-organized, adequately funded political turnout machine that is staffed by committed workers.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.

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