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NC Senate Forecast Update Oct 12, 2010: Republicans Up to 28

Democratic Sen. John Snow likely to lose GOP-friendly seat: Sen. John Snow, D-Cherokee, is down by 16 points in the latest poll conducted by Survey USA for Civitas.  According to the October poll, GOP Challenger Jim Davis, R-Macon, is leading Snow by 53% to 37%.

Any Democrat incumbent trailing a strong Republican opponent by 16% in a GOP-friendly district in a GOP-friendly year is likely to lose. Remember, this seat was held for 8 terms (that’s 16 years) by Republican Senator Bob Carpenter.  Davis is a Macon County Commissioner and orthodontist.

Republicans can count on 28 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.  Snow seat can now be added to these seats likely to flip GOP:  Open seats held by R.C. Soles (D-Columbus), David Hoyle (D-Gaston) and Julia Boseman (D-New Hanover);  Sen. Steve Goss (D-Watauga), whose opponent, Dan Soucek, had a 48% to 41% advantage in mid-September; Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D-Haywood), whose opponent, Ralph Hise, had a 50% to 38% advantage in mid-September; Tony Foriest (D-Alamance), detailed below, and A.B. Swindell (D-Nash), where an Oct. 11 Civitas report says Buck Newton (R-Nash) has a 50% to 40% lead.

Other seats within reach of a GOP pickup are: Sen. Don Davis (his Green County has less than 10% of district’s voters; low African American turnout will doom him), and Sen. Katie Dorsett’s seat, where her last-minute withdrawal has led to divided Democrats and a possible GOP upset.

No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. R.C. Soles, No Sen. David Hoyle, No Sen. Julia Boseman, No Sen. Tony Foriest

Here’s the best political joke I’ve heard this year:  A North Carolina Democrat goes into a bar, orders a drink and says to the bartender, “Can you believe those big corporations are helping Republicans buy elections!” Isn’t that a hoot?

Big North Carolina corporations have been helping Democrats keep Republicans out of power in the North Carolina General Assembly for decades.  Democrats would have had to share power long ago if they had not muscled big corporations with little political courage into giving them a disproportionate share of their contributions … thereby enabling Democrats to buy undue influence in GOP and Swing districts; and ultimately, undue influence over the state budget.

No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. R.C. Soles: In 2008, R.C. Soles, D-Columbus, spent $839,000 to only $179,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Betty Fennell, R-New Hanover, and still only got 49% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. R.C. Soles. GOP nominee Bill Rabon, the likely winner, has maintained a 15% advantage over Democrat David Redwine since the primary.

No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. Julia Boseman: Julia Boseman, D-New Hanover, spent $871,000 to only $250,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Michael Lee, R-New Hanover, and won with only 52% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. Julia Boseman. GOP nominee Thom Goolsby, the likely winner, has maintained a 15% + advantage over Democrat Jim Leutze since the primary.

No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. David Hoyle: David Hoyle, D-Gaston, spent $645,000 to only $151,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Kathy Harrington, R-Gaston, and won with only 51% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. David Hoyle. GOP nominee Kathy Harrington, the likely winner, had a 56% to 28% advantage over her Democratic opponent after the May primary.

No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. Tony Foriest: In 2008, Sen. Tony Forrest, D-Alamance, spent $647,000 to $387,000 spent by newcomer GOP challenger Rick Gunn, R-Alamance, and won with only 52% of the vote … in one of the best years for Democrats in modern history thanks to the Obama voter registration and turnout operation. No Financial Advantage in 2008?  No Sen. Tony Foriest.

GOP nominee Rick Gunn, the likely winner, has maintained a 4% + advantage over Democrat incumbent Tony Foriest since late August polling.  Take away the Obama-driven historic Democratic registration and turnout of 2008, throw in a GOP-friendly turnout year, and level the financial commitment … Gunn will win.

No Obama in 2008?  No Sen. R.C. Soles, No Sen. David Hoyle, No Sen. Don Davis, No Sen. Julia Boseman, No Sen. Tony Foriest … No NC Senate Democratic Majority.

Sen. Foriest’s challenge is how to get the Obama voter back to the polls this fall … without which he cannot win.  The Obama voter didn’t show up in VA, NJ or Massachusetts, leading to two new Republican governors and a Republican in U.S. Senator Teddy Kennedy’s seat.

If Obama voters didn’t turn out for Teddy Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, or for the Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey, why would they turn out for Tony Foriest’s seat in the NC Senate? As it turns out, Obama voters were inspired by Obama … not by the Democratic Party.

Well, there you have it.

Sen. John Snow, D-Cherokee, is down by 16 points in the latest poll conducted by Survey USA for Civitas.  Any Democrat incumbent trailing a strong Republican opponent by 16% in a GOP-friendly district in a GOP-friendly year is likely to lose.

Republicans can count on 28 seats in the 50-member NC Senate, 30 if the “toss-up” races split.

Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.