John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“But it [anger of the electorate] is not inchoate irrational anger — a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.” Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 15, 2010

Beware of Stampeding Elephants

Post:  Friday, October 15, 2010, by John Davis

Public debt has political consequences.  That’s the #1 takeaway from the 2010 election cycle.  Here is #2:  Run over conservative and moderate Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril.  If you do, beware; you may just create a retaliatory herd of stampeding elephants.

Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends Senate and House charts and you will see that North Carolina Republicans continue a partisan momentum advantage that has not wavered for months

Here are the latest economic numbers driving the stampede:

Economic News Keeps Obama & Democrats on Defensive

• U.S. budget deficit over $1 trillion two consecutive years
• Over 100,000 foreclosures in September, record high
• U.S. trade deficit $46.35 billion in August
• U.S. imports jumped 2.1%, while exports rose 0.2%.
• Unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 462,000 in the latest week
• Only 13% of Americans rate the country’s economic as “Excellent/Good”

Public debt has consequences.  As Charles Krauthammer noted in today’s Washington Post, the anger of the electorate today is not “a ‘temper tantrum,’ as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.”

Obamamania Wanes Among College Students: A new Associated Press-mtvU poll released Wednesday of this week found that President Obama’s “Job Approval” among college students has plummeted from 60% in May 2009 to 44% today.  According to Alan Fram with the Huffington Post, these new numbers are “a fresh sign of trouble for Democrats struggling to rekindle enthusiasm among many of these newest voters for the crucial midterm elections.”

Last night, at an event hosted by MTV, CMT and BET, the president was put on the spot by young voters who questioned why they should vote for him again in 2012.

Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts were Early Signals of a New “Change” Agenda: Clear evidence of disillusioned young Obama zealots could be seen last November in Virginia, where only 10% of 18 to 24-year old  voters turned out compared to 21% in 2008.  Obama’s 2-to-1 advantage among young people melted into a 51% support for the Democrat.  The Republican won.

New Jersey Independents: As significant as the Democratic loss of enthusiastic young voters is the loss of Independent voters.  In New Jersey, Independent voters were 2-to-1 behind Obama in 2008.  Last November, 58% of the Independent voters chose the Republican Chris Christie in the governor’s race.  Christie won.

Massachusetts Independents: Democrats also lost their advantage among Independent voters in Massachusetts, where Democrats enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage among Independent voters who flip-flopped 2-to-1 to Scott Brown, the GOP nominee.  A Republican in a pickup truck won Ted Kennedy’s seat with the message “we need to change Washington.”  Sound familiar?

Top takeaways from the 2010 election cycle are likely to be:

• Public debt has political consequences.
• Obama voters cannot be presumed to be Democratic voters.
• If you are the #1 highest ranked liberal member of the U.S. Senate, and you become president, run over conservative and moderate Americans with a liberal agenda at your own peril.
• Beware of wishing for all of the power; you just may wind up with all of the blame.
• Obama lost the “change” agenda when he became the president he ran against.  (See slides below)

How did Obama and the Democrats lose the “change” message?

Take a look at these two slides from my latest speech, North Carolina Politics 2010 – Battle for the Majority in the Senate and House, and you will see that most of problems that lead to the Republican disaster in 2008 are now the problems leading to a disastrous year for the Democrats in 2010.

Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group.  Click here to request availability and fees.

Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Friday, October 15, 2010.  All indicators point to a stampede of angry Republicans to the polls, dominating early voting between now and Election Day … driven by lack of respect shown by the current leadership in Washington and Raleigh for the simple notion that public debt has consequence.

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