John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Tea Party detractors have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down.  Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.”       John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard

GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential

Post:  Thursday, October 21, 2010, by John Davis

MOMENTUM IN GOP’s FAVOR SOLID IN NC FOR MONTHS:  When I created the Late Breaking Trends tracking charts in mid-August, I expected that the double-digit advantage favoring North Carolina Republicans would tighten up as Election Day neared.  It always does.  It has not.

Take a look at the graphs below from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts and you will see that not only has the partisan momentum advantage favored the GOP for many months, the advantage has not dropped below 18% since early September for NC Senate races, or below 12% for NC House races.

Here are two new numbers from Gallup this week that are indicative of the overall dissatisfaction with the policies of the nation’s political leadership … numbers that are driving the GOP-friendly trend:

Obama’s Ratings at New Low: Today, Gallup reports that, “President Barack Obama’s job approval average of 44.7% marks a new quarterly low.”  Gallup also reports that Obama’s “favorable rating has also reached a new low as president, at 47%,” with a majority saying he does not deserve re-election.

Satisfaction with Direction of U.S. Lowest in 30 Years:  On Monday of this week, Gallup reported that only 21% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and that “If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years….”

The GOP is favored by 11 out of 12 economic and political indicators tracked daily for two months in the Late Breaking Trends feature chart developed by the John Davis Political Report.

For emphasis: Not once in two months have NC Senate Democrats had an advantage on any of the 12 economic and political variables used to create the Late Breaking Trends trend line.  The same is true for the NC House Democrats with one exception: the mid-year campaign finance reports filed with the State Board of Elections showed NC House Democrats with a 2-to-1 Cash on Hand advantage.  The new reports will be out next week.  Look for a major tightening of the campaign funding gap, as Republicans are likely to report their best fundraising election cycle ever.

Today’s NC Senate Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 18 point advantage.

Today’s NC House Late Breaking Trends Chart shows GOP riding a sustained 12 point advantage.

GOP’s Focus on Economy Forges Powerful New Coalition with Far Reaching Potential

The two smartest decisions made this year by the North Carolina Republican political war generals are: #1 – To focus on economic concerns and stay away from the issues that have driven independents over to the Democrats for many election cycles; and, #2 – To invest early and heavily in a voter turnout operation designed to give them the advantage in early voting and Election Day turnout.

They’ve done a good job with decision #1.  We’ll have to wait until Election Day to see what kind of job they are doing with decision #2 … the turnout operation.  That will decide their fate.

The GOP leaders in the state and nation should thank their lucky stars for the Tea Party movement, and should be commended for embracing them rather than trying to convert them.  The Tea Partiers set the agenda for this election cycle and kept it focused on economic matters.  That’s why it has been so successful.

Tea Party detractors, from day one, have doubted the political potential of the movement because it is not organized from the top down.  Those detractors have forgotten that world history is replete with local insurrections that escalated into full-scale rebellions, rebellions that forced concessions by kings and nobles or the complete overthrow of the high and the mighty.

That’s where we are in America today.  Tea Partiers are voters who, like our Boston ancestors in 1773, feel like their concerns are not being respected by governmental leaders.  Unlike their Boston ancestors, they are looking for something to throw overboard besides tea.

If the GOP is given the opportunity to lead in Raleigh and Washington, they just may be able to keep the powerful new conservative/independent majority coalition together for many election cycles to come … IF, and only if, they keep their economic agenda front and center and do not allow themselves to be defined by their social agenda.

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For a profile of the Tea Party folks read my April 13, 2010 John Davis Political Report titled, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard.

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Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Thursday, October 21, 2010.

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