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“Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.” John Davis Political Report, Oct. 28, 2010

NOTE:  See handicap for all 50 NC Senate races and 120 NC House races by clicking on the Investors Political Daily graphics above.

Investors Political Daily

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

Final NC House Forecast: GOP Majority Likely 64

Post:  October 28, 2010 (Friday, October 29, 2010 UPDATE)

NC House GOP Caucus Likely Majority Party: NC House GOP Caucus can count on 64 Seats in the 120-member NC House of Representatives, 66 seats if the 4 toss-up races split evenly.  All political indicators … money, momentum, turnout and political warfare leadership … point to a GOP majority after next Tuesday’s elections.

Investors Political Daily Chart: Check out today’s Investors Political Daily House report and you will see that Tom Murry, Morrisville Town Councilman and Republican nominee in Wake County House District 41, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Chris Heagarty, D-Wake.

Today’s Investors Political Daily also shows that Johnny Dawkins, Fayetteville City Councilman and Republican nominee in Cumberland County House District 44, is now “Favored” to defeat appointed incumbent Diane Parfitt, D-Cumberland.

UPDATED FRIDAY, OCT. 29:  According to a new SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 25-26 for the Civitas Institute, “Republican candidate Johnny Dawkins is maintaining his lead over Democratic Rep. Diane Parfitt in the state House District 44 race – comprised of Cumberland County.

Of the 300 voters surveyed, 49 percent said they would vote for Dawkins if the election for state representative were today.  Forty-four percent said they would vote for Parfitt, and 7 percent are undecided.

However, among those who are most likely to vote in 2010, Dawkin’s lead increases to 56 percent-37 percent.”

The Civitas news release, dated today, Oct. 29, also noted that Rep. Rick Glazier, D-Cumberland, is now trailing his GOP opponent, Jackie Warner, R-Cumberland, by 10 percent (Warner 51%; Glazier 41%).  Warner is the wife of former Rep. Alex Warner.

This race has been moved to “toss up” on today’s Investors Political Daily NC House report.

NOTE:  All 120 NC House races are handicapped in the Investors Political Daily report.

Bottom Line Republican Totals: Republicans have 29 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 22 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 13 “Favored” GOP candidates.  That brings their likely total to 64 wins next Tuesday, 66 if they split the 4 “toss up” races evenly with the Democrats.

The majority party needs only 61 seats in the 120-member House to rule.

Bottom Line Democratic Totals: Democrats have 11 candidates with NO OPPOSITION, 28 candidates who are “Likely Winners” because they have an uncontestable political advantage (most often the district was drawn with a clear partisan bias), and 12 “Favored” Democratic candidates.  That brings their likely total to 51 wins next Tuesday, 53 if they split the 5 “toss up” races evenly with the Republicans.

GOP Has Had Double Digit Momentum Advantage Since August: Check out today’s Late Breaking Trends House chart and you will see that NC House Republicans continue to enjoy a double-digit partisan momentum advantage … since August 16.

Biggest Political Story of the General Election: The biggest political story of the entire general election was written Wednesday by Jim Morrill in the Charlotte Observer.  The headline read:  N.C. GOP narrows fundraising gap on Democrats

Here are the highlights:

·       Republican fundraising is UP twice as much as in 2008 through mid-October

·       Republican fundraising is UP three times as in 2006, the last mid-term elections

·       Democrats are $2 million DOWN from where they were this time in 2008

·       Democrats are $1 million DOWN from there they were this time in 2006

Game Over: Democrats have held the majority in the NC House and Senate because of their 2-to-1 financial advantage.  That gave them the extra resources every election cycle to protect their base, win the toss-up races, and raid Republican districts.  Democrats no longer have the financial advantage.  Game over.

Track Early Voting: Keep Up With Early Voting Using Civitas’ New Vote Tracker Interactive Tool

Civitas Institute has introduced a new tool for tracking the daily early voting statistics.  You can see how the early voting is going by party, race, gender, age, county, and district.  It’s an amazing interactive tool … a first in North Carolina.  Click here to try it out.

Well, there you have it.  Investors Political Daily, October 28, 2010.

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