John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats.  Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP?  Republicans win.  And that is what is happening in this state.”       John Davis Political Report, April 13, 2010, Archbishop Tutu on Growing Corn and Changing Government; Tea’d and looking for something to throw overboard

Late Breaking Trends

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout

Advantage Shifts Significantly from Democratic to Republican in 2010

Post:  Monday, Nov. 1, 2010, by John Davis

In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early between the dates of Oct. 16 and Nov. 1.  This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early since Oct. 14, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.

Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008.  This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008.

A net 11% swing to the favor of the GOP this fall, coupled with last week’s big news about campaign funding near parity, bodes well for North Carolina Republicans tomorrow.

The 2010 numbers are from the following AP story on turnout of early voters:

http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/10/31/772524/950000-voters-have-already-cast.html

Is the NC Democratic Party the Toyota of State Politics?

Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share

John N. Davis, President

In May of this year, I wrote a 10-part series of reports suggesting that the North Carolina Democratic Party is much like the Toyota Motor Company in that they are both among the great organizational successes in American history, and both are losing market share because of sloppy standards and corrupt leaders.

The report lead to the following conclusion: Many believe that the only way North Carolina Republicans can seize power in 2010 is to raise the political bar closer to that of Democrats.  Well, what if Democrats lower their political bar closer to the GOP?  Republicans win.  And that is what is happening in this state.

The following paragraph is restated for emphasis:  What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time.  Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic.  Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.

The Top 10 Political Liabilities Leading to Loss of Voter Market Share are:

#1:       A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates

#2:       Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb

#3:       Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame

#4:       A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending

#5:       Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the Safety Automaker; Perdue the Ethics Governor

#6:       The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy

#7:       Regnat Populus!  Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American

#8:       Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened

#9:       Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative

#10:     Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment

What follows is report #10.  All reports are available at www.johndavisconsulting.com.

Written in May, 2010

Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments

“What’s disappointing to me,” said Stupak, “is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem.” Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, May 20, 2010;  U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems[i]

Obama’s inspiring oratory and hopeful message of change during the 2008 presidential race moved tens of millions from every walk of life to believe that he would be different; that he would be far greater than his predecessor.

And certainly President Obama would be able to manage a disaster better than the way President Bush handled Katrina.  But now, in the aftermath of a catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf, what we see is a vulnerable and defensive leader with approval ratings plummeting to new lows.[ii]

North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008.  Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.

Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June

The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster.  It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low.  According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[iii]

• He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
• He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
• He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
• He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
• He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
• He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
• He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
• He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
• He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
• He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[iv] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
• He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak

Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”

Where’s the Unlimited Money? The Paid Staff? The Enthusiastic Volunteers?

Democrats won many races in 2008 thanks to Obama’s oratorical skills and the disdain voters had for the Bush administration.  Obama’s ability to inspire led to record fundraising and ultimately to the millions of dollars invested by his campaign in our state.  Unlimited money brought hundreds of field staff to North Carolina who managed thousands of enthusiastic volunteers who succeeded in registering and turning out a record-breaking number of voters.

Nationally, the Obama campaign raised a staggering $782 million, employed 6,000 staffers who managed an all-volunteer army of 13 million Americans.  In September 2008 alone, they raised $100 million online as a result of 10 e-mails.  “There were times when we were raising $250,000, $300,000, even $500,000 an hour,”[v] writes David Plouffe, President Obama’s campaign manager, in his book The Audacity to Win.

Why did Obama’s national fundraising success matter here in North Carolina in 2008?  “Every additional dime was being funneled into battleground states,” said Plouffe.  He recalled the Primary Election Day in North Carolina when Obama defeated Clinton by 14 points.  “As the returns came in, we could see the traces of our strategy’s design: by registering over 100,000 new voters, producing strong turnout among African-Americans and young voters, and winning college-educated whites …. we made ourselves unbeatable in North Carolina.”[vi]

During the fall of 2008, the Obama campaign had 47 headquarters in our state, with over 400 paid staff in the twenty-something age group.  These junior operatives were responsible for record early voting totaling 2.6 million (only 984,000 voted early in 2004).  More voters voted early than voted on Election Day!

Where is the inspired oratory in 2010?  The record-breaking fundraising?  The hundreds of paid staff?  The thousands of volunteers working tirelessly to register and turn out Democrats?

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan, said on May 20, 2010, during the U.S. House Commerce Committee Hearing on Toyota’s sudden acceleration problems, “What’s disappointing to me is learning that Toyota seems to have focused more on discrediting its critics than on solving the problem. ^[vii] Likewise, what’s disappointing to so many who were inspired by candidate Obama in 2008 is that President Obama seems to have focused more on discrediting his critics than on accepting responsibility for solving the problems of the day.

North Carolina Democrats were counting on President Obama to inspire the winning difference in 2010 as he did in 2008.  Instead, what they have is just another bumbling president betrayed by his gift for gab … a mere mortal walking on oily water in a sea of disappointments.

END

[i] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter

[ii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx

[iii] http://www.gallup.com/poll/139337/Obama-Weekly-Approval-Average-Dips-New-Low.aspx

[iv] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx June 10, 2010

[v] The Audacity to Win, by David Plouffe, Campaign Manager for Obama for America, Pg 327.

[vi] Ibid, Pg 229

[vii] http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter

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Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Monday, November 1, 2010.

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