John Davis Consulting

Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans

“The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898.  After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…” John Davis Political Report, Nov. 2, 2010

Late Breaking Trends

North Carolina’s Daily Partisan Advantage Forecast

All of the Kings Horses and All of the Kings Men

The loss of confidence in President Obama and the Democratic Party started in 2009

Post: Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Take a look at today’s Late Breaking Trends partisan advantage tracking charts and you will see that the GOP has a double-digit political momentum advantage in today’s elections in NC … and that they have sustained that advantage since the chart was created on August 16, 2010.

Here are 4 of the 12 variables from today’s Late Breaking Trends charts:

• Only 13% of Americans rate the economy as “Excellent/Good”  (74% said so in 2001)
• 64% of Americans say the country is on the “wrong track;” 31% say “right track”
• 74% of Americans “disapprove” of the job the U.S. Congress is doing
• 56% of NC voters “disapprove” of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 41% “approve”

Adding to the overall malaise among North Carolina Democrats today is low favorability rating or Governor Bev Perdue.  According to today’s Pollster.com, only 22.7% of North Carolinians have a favorable impression of Purdue.

Here are the latest headlining studies that make the case for a big GOP win today:

Oct. 28 – Republican Party Equals the Democratic Party’s 3^rd Quarter Fundraising in NC: According to a study of 3^rd quarter campaign finance reports by the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, “This year, Republicans have raised $3.3 million, and the Democrats took in $3.7 million in the 3rd quarter: much closer to a 1-to-1 match.  By way of comparison, in the 3rd quarter of 2008, “the Republican Party raised $1.5 million and the Democratic Party raised almost $5.9 million: a 4-to-1 Democratic advantage.”  If in fact Republicans have taken away the Democrats’ last line of defense, money, then the GOP will win a majority in both the NC Senate and NC House.

Oct. 31 – Republican 15-Point Advantage on Generic Ballot Unprecedented in Gallup History: On October 31, 2010, USA Today/Gallup released the results of a national poll conducted Oct. 28-31 showing a 15-point gap in likely voters favoring Republicans in U.S. Congressional races.  The report concluded, “This year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations.”

Nov. 1 – GOP Early Voting Net 11 Points Over 2008 Turnout: A net 11% swing to the favor of Republicans in early voting this fall when compared to the fall of 2008 bodes well for the GOP in North Carolina today.  In 2008, North Carolina Democrats made up 51% of those who voted early during the General Election.  This fall, Democrats made up only 46% of those who voted early, for a net loss of 5% of total early voters when compared to 2008.

On the other hand, Republicans made up only 30% of the early voters in the fall of the 2008.  This year, the percent of early voters who are Republican is up from 30% to 36%, for a net gain of 6% when compared to total early voters in the fall of 2008. A combination of the 6% gain by Republicans and the 5% loss by Democrats in early voting creates the 11-point GOP swing.

Nov. 2 – Republican 19-Point Enthusiasm Advantage Largest Midterm Gap in Decades: According to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, “The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points (63% of Republicans, including Republican-leaning independents, say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to only 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents).

May/June – Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010: In May and June of this year, I wrote a 10-part series on the political liabilities faced by the NC Democratic Party in 2010.  Part 10, on the role President Obama played in creating the loss of enthusiasm among Democrats, was featured in yesterday’s John Davis Political Report.

If you agree that President Bush contributed greatly to the Republican losses in 2008, and that the Congressional Republicans contributed greatly to their losses in 2006 and 2008, then you will know where I am coming from with this conclusion:

What makes 2010 potentially catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that the 10 political liabilities are unfolding at the same time.  Any one or several of them would not be politically catastrophic.  Many times down through the decades, Democrats have weathered eras of corrupt leaders; they have overcome Republican-friendly years, weak governors, high turnover of incumbents, unpopular presidents, budget problems, economic slumps, anti-establishment voters, third party movements, low turnout, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, unpopular wars and a surge in opposition strength … but not at the same time like we are seeing today.

The Top 10 NC Democratic Party Political Liabilities Leading to Losses in 2010:

#1:       A Weak Democratic Governor Will be a Drag on Democratic Candidates

#2:       Basnight’s Cash on Hand Down by 30% with a Tougher Hill to Climb

#3:       Democrats have all of the Power and Get all of the Blame

#4:       A Nation and State of Voters Fearing Financial Collapse Due to Spending

#5:       Corrupt Leaders: Toyota the “Safety” Automaker; Perdue the “Ethics” Governor

#6:       The Issue is the Economy, and Democrats Own the Economy

#7:       Regnat Populus!  Dissatisfied Voters View “Ins” as Dismissive and Un-American

#8:       Enthusiasm + Internet = Turnout; Party Infrastructural Advantage Threatened

#9:       Protective Wall of Silence Exposed Revealing Power-over-Principle Imperative

#10:     Obama: Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointment

The loss of confidence in how President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are leading the country should have been abundantly clear a year ago with the election of Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey.  And certainly there could have been no doubt after the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts earlier this year.

The North Carolina Democratic Party has not lost both houses of the state General Assembly since 1898.  After reviewing all of the polls and news and trends of the day, especially the continued lack of confidence with how the majority party is leading the state and nation, the only thing that comes to mind is, “All of the king’s horses and all of the king’s men .…”

– END –

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Well, there you have it.  Late Breaking Trends, Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

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