Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2 “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009 NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking
[More…]
Post: December 7, 2010 Volume III, No. 2
“I can’t control my caucus anymore.” NC Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, Sited in John Davis Political Report, Volume II, No. 8, December 10, 2009
NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
After selecting the “Sign UP” button, you will be directed to the PayPal site. Look at the bottom of the page for: “No PayPal account? Pay using your credit or debit card.”
Call me if you wish to discuss an advisory relationship 919-696-3859.
If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.
A Political Wave Does Not a Majority Make
Many assert that the Republican “Wave” of 2010 was the reason that North Carolina Republicans won the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly on November 2, a first since 1898. Well, if all it takes is a GOP “Wave,” then why haven’t Republicans won the majority in the North 
Carolina General Assembly more often than the one time in 1994 … during a stretch of 112 years? Why is it that only two other states, Oregon and Washington, have an undefeated run of Democratic governors as long as North Carolina?
Sorry, a wave does not a majority make.
The Republican “wave” that swept the U.S. this fall presented a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to achieve historic gains in North Carolina … but nothing more than a wonderful opportunity. Democrats have always been able to beat back the national Republican wave election years because of money, savvy and unity … aided by underfunded Republican candidates and Republican Party disunity.
In 2010, the Republican and Democratic caucus strengths were reversed. It was the Democrats who began to self destruct. Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong.
The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Divided Democratic Leadership Led by Inexperienced War Generals
The NC Senate Democratic Caucus started down the road to defeat on November 17, 2009, a year before the 2010 elections. That was the day Sen. Martin Nesbitt (D-Buncombe) was elected Majority Leader following the abrupt resignation of long-time Majority Leader and Rules Chairman Sen. Tony Rand (D-Cumberland).
Rand was a great war general; Nesbitt was not.
The historic era of unparalleled power of Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight came to an end that day. Basnight began to tell his friends, “I can’t control my caucus anymore.” A new era of Senate leadership began, an era led by seasoned urban lawyers with unquestionable public policy credentials … but not political combat credentials.
Marc Basnight and Tony Rand were unquestionably two of the most powerful legislative leaders in state history … powerful because they knew how to win campaigns even during GOP wave years. However, they wielded their power with such ruthless efficiency that over time they made lots of enemies … including in their own caucus. The little known fact outside the Raleigh beltline is that Basnight and Rand were slowly becoming a minority in their majority caucus.
Basnight and his inner circle were business owners. Their fatal flaw was the failure to see the value in maintaining a base of philosophical allies in their caucus by recruiting and helping elect other Democratic business owners.
And so, imperceptibly over time, a liberal coalition of Senate Democrats grew in number and coalesced to create its own force, a mutinous force that became stronger than that of the leaders Basnight and Rand.
Thus, the fall of the Basnight/Rand Empire … and with it, a divided caucus led by inexperienced political war generals. They were doomed a year ago.
United Republican Leadership Led by Seasoned War Generals Who Can Raise Money
By 2008, Senate Republicans and their political team under the leadership of Phil Berger from Eden had become seasoned political combat veterans. They had become so good that they would have won a majority of seats in the North Carolina Senate, during one of the worst years for Republicans in modern political history, if it were not for the unity, savvy and especially the fundraising prowess of the Basnight/Rand political machine.
Senate Democrats were forced to spend an average of $500,000 per competitive race just to fend off Republicans who spent a third of that. That’s how effective Republican leaders, their political staff and their consultants had become at winning campaigns. They were a serious political threat even during a Democratic “Wave” … long before the GOP wave came along.
Among House Republicans, a strong political war general was needed. In 2010, that leader emerged in the name of Thom Tillis, a two-term member of the House from Huntersville. Tillis joined Skip Stam from Apex in what has become a powerful force with a working relationship that has the long-term potential equal to that of Basnight and Rand. They are competent, intelligent, politically savvy, and committed to the state … with a priority of restoring the state’s economic vitality. Oh, and they can raise money!
“We went in united, we came out united.”
Most importantly, Stam and Tillis are united.
I asked a House member to tell me about the Republican House Caucus meeting held a couple of weeks ago during which Skip Stam and Thom Tillis vied against each other for the position of Speaker. That member said, “We went in united, we came out united … thanks to the way Skip Stam and Thom Tillis conducted themselves.” That speaks well for long-term majority status for Republicans in the North Carolina House.
And speaking of the importance of unity and political warfare experience, the role played by NC GOP Party Chair Tom Fetzer in 2009 and 2010 cannot be overstated. A party with a history of being divided, conservative versus moderates, came together under the leadership of Fetzer. Fetzer not only brought unity to the GOP this election cycle, he brought political savvy and fundraising skills from his years as Mayor of Raleigh and as a political consultant.
Fetzer’s rallying theme for the 2010 elections: “One Team, One Goal, Victory.” Unity, savvy and successful fundraising is why Republicans won in 2010. Otherwise, 2010 would have been just another Republican “wave” year written off as a just another missed opportunity.
Don’t Dismiss the Significance of the GOP Commitment
To suggest that “the wave” alone would have carried the GOP into power in 2010 not only flies in the face of NC history, it dismisses the significance of the GOP commitment.
- It dismisses the significance of a leave-it-all-on-the-battlefield 18-month commitment of time and energy by an atypically savvy and united group of NC Republican party leaders and their exceptional staff;
- It dismisses the significance of an atypically savvy and united Senate and House Republican caucus leadership team and their exceptional political staff;
- It dismisses the definitive value of the thousands of volunteers who manned the phone banks for months making 2 million calls so they would not be beat this year in the early voting turnout;
- It dismisses the extraordinary class of candidates who neglected their families and risked their personal resources while working the campaign trail to exhaustion day after week after month after month … nights and weekends;
- It dismisses the significance of thousands of new contributors to Republican candidates and the hard work of those who took the time to work the phones raising the money;
- It dismisses the significance of new independent expenditure groups that followed the 2008 labor union play book with a partisan investment of millions;
- It dismisses the significance of the fact that through mid-October, Republican fundraising was UP twice as much as in 2008 while Democrats were DOWN $2 million;
- It dismisses the significance of the Tea Partiers and all of those rallies held all over the state … rallies organized by organizations like Americans for Prosperity and Civitas … rallies that would not have happened if it were not for committed and hard-working staff;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of 60 polls made public by organizations like Civitas, Carolina Strategy Group and Public Policy Polling … and groups like the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation who compiled political research for easy access;
- It dismisses the significance of the value of organizations like the John Locke Foundation that was a constant source of misery for Gov. Perdue and the Democratic establishment, keeping them tripped up with their effective investigative reporting and in-your-face news releases;
- It dismisses the significance of the constant drum beat of conservative thought pushed into the public conscience by talk radio, Fox News and a gazillion conservative publications and web sites.
Republicans in other states may have inadvertently won the power because of the national wave. Here in North Carolina, the “wave” was nothing more than an opportunity.
Republicans seized that opportunity by doing everything right while the Democrats were doing the most important things wrong. The potential for Republicans to hold the majority long term has nothing to do with “wave” elections, it is great because they have gotten very good at winning campaigns.
Well, there you have it, the John Davis Political Report for Tuesday, December 7, 2010.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Subscription, or $4,850 for the Advantage Subscription that includes an advisory relationship.
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
– END –
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.
Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1 “According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats
[More…]
Post: December 2, 2010 Volume III, No. 1
“According to Davis, the number of Senate seats competitive for both major political parties has dropped from 14 out of 50 under the 1992 Senate Plan to only 6 out of 50 under the 2001 Senate Plan. Similarly, Davis asserts that the number of competitive House seats has dropped from 32 out of 120 under the 1992 House Plan to only 14 out of 120 under the 2001 House Plan.” NC Supreme Court opinion, Stephenson v. Bartlett, citing deposition of John Davis, NCFREE Executive Director
NOTE: For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
After selecting the “Sign UP” button, you will be directed to the PayPal site. Look at the bottom of the page for: “No PayPal account? Pay using your credit or debit card.”
Call me if you wish to discuss: 919-696-3859.
If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.
Stephenson v. Bartlett – The Forgotten Reason Why the NC GOP Won the Majority in 2010
One month ago today, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans made history by winning the majority of the seats in the state Senate and House of Representatives. There are three primary reasons the GOP prevailed:
- Weak and divided Democratic leadership which lost the campaign $ advantage … during a GOP wave election year.
- Strong and united Republican leadership which achieved campaign $ parity … during a GOP wave election year.
- Stephenson v. Bartlett case of 2002 that led to a leveling of partisan districts
The Stephenson v. Bartlett case is the historic redistricting decision handed down by the NC Supreme Court in 2002 that threw out the brazenly 
gerrymandered maps drawn by legislative Democrats after the 2000 census. That case led to the leveling of the partisan playing field throughout the decade.
Without Stephenson v. Bartlett, the number of state senate and house districts drawn to favor Democrats would likely have been too great to overcome, even in 2010 with a strong Republican leadership team and GOP-friendly momentum.
I had the pleasure of serving as an impartial witness in the Stephenson v. Bartlett case in 2002, and was honored that my testimony was cited in the written opinion of the NC Supreme Court. Here are the facts before and after Stephenson v. Bartlett:
NC Senate Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 0-Seat Advantage
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 28 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 16 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
- After the judicially mandated remapping of districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 22 Senate districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a total loss of the advantage for the Democrats. There were six swing Senate districts.
NC House Democrats from 12-Seat Advantage to 4-Seat DISADVANTAGE
- In 2001, Democrats in the NC General Assembly drew 59 House districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 47 House districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net advantage of 12 districts. There were 14 swing House districts.
- After judicially mandated remapping the districts based on the 2002 ruling of the North Carolina Supreme Court in Stephenson v. Bartlett, there were only 51 districts favoring the election of a Democrat and 55 districts favoring the election of a Republican, for a net loss of 16 districts favoring Democrats when adding the net advantage for Republicans of 4 districts. There were still 14 swing districts.
So how is it that Democrats have been able to maintain power with a level playing field? The short answer is lots of money and a strong political leadership team. Democrats have been masters at parlaying their power into a 70-to-30 campaign spending advantage. They have also been masters at the fundamentals of winning campaigns. For many years I have referred to the Senate Democratic Caucus as the national model state legislative political war machine.
However, if you take away their strong Democratic leadership team and their financial advantage, they are left with a level political playing field thanks to the Stephenson v. Bartlett case. That’s what happened this year.
What made 2010 politically catastrophic for North Carolina Democrats is that they had to deal with an era of corrupt leaders, a Republican-friendly year, a weak governor, a high turnover of incumbents, an unpopular president, state budget problems, a national economic slump, anti-establishment voters, the Tea Party movement, low enthusiasm, low turnout of their base, declining party loyalty, high unemployment, record deficit spending, an unpopular war, a surge in opposition strength, and a loss of the campaign $ advantage … all at the same time.
Meanwhile, Republicans united for the first time as political pragmatists who finally accepted the fact that you can’t govern if you don’t win and you can’t win without money. Voila!
My sincerest congratulations to the Republican Party leadership and staff, to the GOP Senate Caucus leadership and staff, to the GOP House Caucus leadership and staff, and to all of you Republicans in North Carolina who have been denied the opportunity to have your ideas debated because of heavy-handed Democratic leadership who sent them to the Rules Committee for an early demise.
I hope that Republicans will do a better job than the Democrats at respecting the diversity of opinion in North Carolina …respecting diversity of opinion not just tolerating diversity of opinion. When it comes to conservative ideology, North Carolina’s liberal Democrats have a history of intolerance equal in every way to intolerant conservatives.
Speaking of respecting diversity of opinion, perhaps the greatest takeaway from the 2010 election cycle is: ignore the priorities of voters at your own peril. Both parties have had to learn that lesson the hard way during this decade.
Well, there you have it. This is the first John Davis Political Report of the 2011-2012 election cycle.
For those of you who are subscribers, I thank you so much for supporting my work.
For those of you who are not subscribers, please subscribe today at $485 for the Premium Annual Subscription by clicking on this link: www.johndavisconsulting.com/subscribe
If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.
If you would like for me to work with you as an objective political trends advisor during the next two years, please subscribe to the Advantage Annual Subscription at $4,850
If you prefer to process an invoice, click here.
May you have the happiest of times with your family in the coming weeks!
“As a former member of the North Carolina House, Senate and Executive Branch of North Carolina government, I would not want to be without the John Davis Political Report – a must for those that love the political arena and our state!” Glenn Jernigan, Glenn Jernigan & Associates
“I am frequently asked to identify the brightest political mind in North Carolina. Even before his amazingly accurate and perceptive views on the historic 2010 election, I always responded, “JOHN DAVIS.” Now I doubt anyone will have to ask me because John’s political forecasting, along with his rationale, received widespread attention every day during the final months of the campaign.” Phil Kirk, President/CEO Emeritus, North Carolina Chamber; Chairman Emeritus, State Board of Education; Director, Brady Energy Services
“John Davis has one of the best political minds in North Carolina. He is practically a walking encyclopedia on legislative politics. I have long relied on his wisdom and insights in my own reporting. If you want to keep up with legislature, particularly now that the Republicans are in control, John Davis is the go-to-guy.” Rob Christensen, chief political reporter, The News and Observer and author of The Paradox of Tar Heel Politics
“Just straight up, fact-based, analysis.” Richard H. Moore, Treasurer, North Carolina, 2000 – 2008
“John Davis was right, he was early, and he made the bold calls publicly with political evidence. There was no need for a crystal ball; he simply used history, common sense and solid political science. He called the legislative ‘flip’ to GOP control earlier than any other analyst.” Bill Weatherspoon, American Petroleum Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina
– END –
Let me know if you would like for me to speak to your group. Click here to request availability and fees.
Thanks for reading and listening to the John Davis Political Report.
PLEASE URGE YOUR ASSOCIATES TO SUBSCRIBE!
Premium Subscription $485.00 Annual Corporations and Trade Groups
Advantage Subscription $4850.00 Annual Advisory Relationship
Please go to www.johndavisconsulting.com and subscribe.