Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary [audio:https://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/JDavisRpt81610.mp3|titles=JDavisRpt81610] Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans High unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats. Post: August 16,
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Click the Play Button Below for an Audio Summary |
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans |
High unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats.
Post: August 16, 2010, by John Davis
If you will take a close look at the Senate and House Late Breaking Trends charts, you will see that I use “underemployment” rather than “unemployment.” Here is why:
Underemployment, at 18.5% today according to Gallup, is a far more politically significant predictor of voter behavior than unemployment. Underemployment includes both Americans who are unemployed and those who are working part-time but wanting full-time work. Especially hard hit are Americans without college degrees, where 23% are underemployed. Those voters are afraid, angry, and are not likely to vote for the ins come November.
Underemployment also helps in understanding why many voters among President Obama’s 2008 winning coalition have soured on politics in general … and Obama in particular. Young voters, those aged 18-to-29, have an underemployment rate of 28.4% … including 11.8% who are unemployed and 16.6% who are employed part-time but looking for full-time work. It’s no wonder that they have become disillusioned with political engagement.
Compounding the negative political fallout for Democrats of high underemployment is the lack of job security among those who are employed. According to a new study released today by Gallup, almost 40% of those who are employed are worried that their benefits will be reduced (39%), that they will be laid off or their wages cut (26%), or that their company will move their job overseas (8%).[i]
Add high underemployment to high anxiety among the employed and you can readily see why Democrats have a growing political problem.
Mortimer Zuckerman, chairman and editor in chief of US News and World Report, wrote an Op Ed piece in today’s WSJ[ii] in which he makes the following disconcerting observations:
- We are at least 2.5 million jobs short of getting back to the unemployment rate of 8% promised by the Obama administration
- We are coming out of the current recession at a 2.4% growth rate, as compared to the normal post-World War II recovery rate of 6% real GDP
- Real unemployment today is well above the headline number of 9.5% if you factor in the 1,115,000 people who gave up hope of finding work in the last three months
Zuckerman’s conclusions echo those of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes, who told Congress last month that the country’s economic outlook remains “unusually uncertain.”[iii]
In politics, “unusual uncertainty” yields unusual turnover.
How long will it take to restore jobs for the underemployed and job security for the employed? “In all likelihood,” Bernanke told the US Senate Banking Committee in July, “a significant amount of time will be required to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009.”
The few short months remaining between now and Election Day November 2010 does not a significant amount of time make. High real unemployment this fall, coupled with high underemployment and high anxiety among the employed, is a potentially lethal concoction of political variables for North Carolina Democrats.
Now you know why I use underemployment rather than just unemployment. The politics of 2010 is being driven by numbers packing a much more powerful political punch than a mere 10% unemployment rate.
Tomorrow, I will being add a daily tracking chart to the bottom of the Senate and House Late Breaking Trends daily reports so that you can see how the partisan political advantage changes over time.
Meanwhile, take a look at the Late Breaking Trends charts above or in the sidebar. You will see that Republicans continue to have a partisan political advantage in both the state House and state Senate campaigns … despite the financial advantage of the Democratic Party. That’s because of underemployment.
[i] http://www.gallup.com/poll/142154/Workers-Elevated-Alert-Potential-Job-Pay-Cuts.aspx
[ii] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703960004575427332237529948.html
[iii] http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/21/news/economy/bernanke_testimony/index.htm
Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Democrats Advantage Republicans “These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters.” Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, Washington Post: August 13, 2010 President Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings at the beginning of his administration hovered at 70% in most national polls, with less than
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Key Trends and their Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Races Advantage Republicans |
“These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters.” Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, Washington Post: August 13, 2010
President Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings at the beginning of his administration hovered at 70% in most national polls, with less than 20% of Americans disapproving. Now, Obama’s “Job Approval” ratings average 44%, with 49% disapproving according to today’s Real Clear Politics rolling average.
How important is a trend like the president’s job approval? Since 1946, according to Gallup, “presidents with job approval ratings below 50% at the time of midterm elections have seen their parties lose an average of 36 U.S. House seats, compared with an average loss of 14 seats for presidents with approval ratings above 50%.” For example, President Clinton’s job approval was 46% during his first mid-term election in 1994, leading to a loss of 53 Democrats in the US House. In 1998, Clinton’s job approval was 20-points higher at 66%, leading to gain of 5 seats in the US House.
Trends are a big deal. They are especially useful in establishing and tracking which party has a political advantage … an advantage that morphs into momentum that drives turnout that determines winners in many close races.
That’s why I have developed a new feature called, Late Breaking Trends – Impact on North Carolina’s 2010 General Election Partisan Political Advantage. There is one for the NC Senate and one for the NC House. That is because of trends like “Contributions” that vary by chamber.
Late Breaking Trends will be updated daily … real time as news breaks about changes like the economy, underemployment, satisfaction with the direction of the state and nation, and the partisan preferences of the all-important independent voters.
Each day I will update the NC Senate and NC House Late Breaking Trends, and highlight one or two of the trends for purposes of amplifying their political significance. Today’s highlight is:
Highlighted Trend: TURNOUT Advantage Republicans
- Fact 6/21: Republicans enjoy the highest partisan “enthusiasm advantage” ever recorded by Gallup, and have sustained that advantage all year. Republicans have a positive net of 14 points on Gallup’s “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” question; Democrats have a negative net of 21 points.
- Fact 7/16: Republicans are more enthused than Democrats by 66% to 51% says North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm.)
- Fact 7/11: Washington Post story says Black voters are ambivalent about midterm elections. “These are Obama voters. These are not Democratic voters,” said Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher.
- Fact 6/20: New minority and young voters from 2008 are not enthusiastic this year. Democrats plan to spend $50 million to reenergize them. “What the Democrats don’t have is a candidate on the ballot named Obama. Instead, they face a political climate in which hope and exhilaration has given way to anger and disappointment.”
- Fact 5/5: The 426,000 Democrats who cast a ballot in the US Senate primary in NC this year represents a 32% decline from the 628,000 who voted in the 2002 US Senate primary [the first mid-term election of the Bush presidency], says Public Policy Polling. All of this despite the almost ½ million more Democrats on the voter registration rolls than in 2002. State Board of Elections
- Fact: Republican early-voting turnout in the NC Primary in May was 74% of 2008 turnout (74,143 in 2010; 88,931 in 2008). Democratic early-voting turnout was 26% of 2008 turnout (103,277 in 2010; 408,910 in 2008). Source: Civitas