“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.” John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011 Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40%
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.”
John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011
Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40% GOP Nation
Post: December 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 34
And the Wall Street Journal Agrees!
If you go back and read all 2011 John Davis Political Reports, you will find this consistent drumbeat: the best hope for President Obama’s re-election success is the Tea Party faction of the U.S. House Republican Caucus.
Yesterday’s rejection of a bipartisan Senate bill to extend the payroll-tax cut is another example of how House Republicans are making the same mistake Obama made: thinking the election results were a mandate for partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives. Wrong.
According to Gallup’s three year average, only 40.4% of Americans are Republican or Lean Republican. The same study shows only 39.8% of Americans are conservative. Where does the House GOP Caucus get the notion that those who are struggling financially care which party is responsible for putting them back to work; responsible for getting the country out of debt? Does it matter to most if it’s conservatives or moderates or liberals who come to the rescue?
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
House Republicans are driving independent voters away, thereby jeopardizing all Republicans.
Today’s Wall Street Journal agrees. In an editorial titled, The GOP’s Payroll Tax Fiasco, WSJ concludes, “We wonder if they [U.S. House Republicans] might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.”
The nation is only 40.4% Republican; 39.8% conservative.
The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.
What Part of a 4-to-1 Obama Approval vs Congress Approval is Confusing?
I have shown time and again throughout 2011 that it’s the President not the Congress who Americans trust more to solve the country’s biggest problems of the day: sovereign debt and jobs. All year, the congressional job approval numbers have hovered in the low teens, near 10%, while the President’s job approval has hovered in the low 40s.
Today, Real Clear Politics shows Congressional Job Approval at 12.5%; President Obama’s Job Approval at 46.5%. What part of a 4-to-1 Presidential Job Approval over Congressional Job Approval do Republican members of the U.S. House not get?
A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows Congressional Democrats getting a 27% job approval rating, with only 20% approving of the job Congressional Republicans are doing. On the other hand, President Obama gets a 49% approval rating.
Ummmmmmm, let’s see. Congressional Republicans get a 20% approval rating and President Obama gets a 49% approval rating. How is that likely to play out in 2012?
The most ominous poll number I have read all year for uncompromising fiscal conservatives like the U.S. House Republican Caucus is a Gallup survey that shows that Independents, by almost 2-to-1, believe that it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs,” even if little gets done (27%).
In 2012, look for the Tea Party conservatives to continue to be a disruptive force in the Republican Party. If they continue to insist on their own priorities, as Obama and his fellow Democrats did when they put health care over jobs and the national budget crisis, they will suffer the same fate in November of 2012 as Democrats did in 2010.
- The Tea Party is on track to help re-elect President Obama
- The Tea Party is on track to limit the likely GOP U.S. Senate majority to 1 or 2 seats
- The Tea Party is on track to help Democrats pull off an upset U.S. House turnover
- The Tea Party is on track to cut the GOP potential for statewide pickups in NC in half (Council of State, 1 Supreme Court and 3 Court of Appeals races).
- The Tea Party is on track to keep the NC Senate and House from winning veto-proof super majorities (they will still win the majority in both chambers if districts stand)
Fortunately for likely GOP Gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory, Perdue is still on track to lose in a rematch because she is so weak that even the Tea Party can’t screw that race up! According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Perdue’s approval rating stands at 37% (about where its been since she took office) and she lags McCrory in the governor’s race by 10 points (50-40), about where its been since she took office.
All in all, Republicans are in for a big year in 2012 at the federal and state levels provided they can convince the Tea Party that giving up half of what they want to get half of what they want is the way progress is made in a Democracy.
– END –
Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Happy New Year!
I can’t thank you enough for reading the John Davis Political Report this year. I am all too aware that you expect me to get it right … every time. That’s what I strive to do each week.
May God Bless You and Your Family!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.” Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War Like WWII, the U.S. Must
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“The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
Jim Clifton, Chairman & CEO, Gallup; The Coming Jobs War
Like WWII, the U.S. Must Fight and Win Two Wars: The U.S./European Sovereign Debt War and the U.S./Asian Global Competitiveness War. How to Win the Jobs War with 1,700 Rupees
Post: December 7, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 33
Underdog to Superpower: WWII Model for Winning Today’s Economic Wars
Today, we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific.
Up until today, 70 years ago, most Americans were isolationists. Despite daily news of the devastation in Britain and other European nations during two years of attacks by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, we didn’t want to get involved; didn’t want to make the sacrifices.
Frankly, we were ill-equipped to get involved after a decade of 25% unemployment, low personal income and tax revenues during The Great Depression. Foreign trade was down to half of what it was before the nation’s worst economic crisis; crop prices were cut in half as well.
Until I read a review of the book Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942 by Ian W. Toli, in The Wall Street Journal on November 26, I did not realize how unprepared we were to engage in global conflict. According to Toli, the United States was an underdog during the first year of the war with Japan in terms of inferior numbers of men, inferior equipment, warships, planes and technology.
However, immediately after Pearl Harbor the United States became a nation united in purpose and willingness to sacrifice. We were united by the threat to our country and our freedoms; united by the realization that if we did not win both wars our right of self-determination would be in the hands of an occupying power.
Within two years, the United States was transformed from underdog to a military superpower because of unity, sacrifice, ingenuity and productivity … and many war heroes. Consider these facts from Pacific Crucible: War at Sea in the Pacific, 1941-1942:
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the United States was producing 89,000 aircraft a year
- The U.S. built 40% more aircraft annually than the British and Germans combined
- The U.S. built 29,000 tanks in 1943, twice as many as the Germans
- In 1943, the U.S. built 369 major warships, five times the combined totals built by the British, Germans and the Soviet Union
- Two years after Pearl Harbor, the U.S. built 2,000 cargo ships, 13 times the number lost to German U-boats that same year
Two Must-Win Economic Wars: Sovereign Debt and Global Jobs Competitiveness
Today, our nation is fighting two economic world wars on two fronts just like in WWII.
The Sovereign Debt Front is being fought by financially irresponsible countries like the United States and the “European Theatre” countries like Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal. Those countries can’t pay their sovereign debts; they fund their budgets with borrowed money thereby raising concerns worldwide about fiscal competence and trustworthiness.
The second front is the Global Jobs Competitiveness Front being fought by the United States and the “Asian-Pacific Theatre,” in countries like China and India.
The consequences of losing either war are as potentially devastating as they were during WWII.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country that cannot well maintain the health, education and general welfare of its citizens. Businesses and industries in a bankrupt country bear the disruptive and costly burden of public sector instability, limiting their ability to compete with their peers in financially stable nations.
So, how do we win both wars?
Solutions: Unity, Sacrifice, Innovation, Productivity … and Medal of Honor Winners
The greatest problems limiting the ability of the United States to win both economic wars are:
- No unity of Purpose (partisan/ideological estrangement)
- No willingness to Sacrifice (you go first)
- No interest in Innovation (not in my job description)
- Manufacturing Productivity (that’s an offshore thing)
- No Medal of Honor Winners (am I my brother’s keeper?)
On November 22, in my report titled, Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee, I stated that the U.S. Congress has confirm what 90% of Americans already know: our nation’s greatest obstacle to winning the debt and jobs economic wars is political gridlock. I concluded that the only solution is to throw out all Senators and Representatives who are not willing to compromise … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
For clarification: The intent is not to get rid of the ideological extremists in both camps, the most liberal and most conservative, the intent is to get rid of all who refuse to collaborate and compromise. We cannot win these two wars without leaders willing to sacrifice for the common good.
Any Republican who says “No” to $10 in cuts to $1 in taxes needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the sovereign debt war with cuts in programs and services, but you cannot win the global jobs competitiveness war without investment paid for with new revenue … governmental investment in infrastructure, especially educational infrastructure.
Any Democrat who says “No” to putting every program on the table for cost cutting reform, especially all entitlement programs, needs to be replaced. Here’s why: You may be able to win the global jobs competitiveness war with investment in infrastructure paid for with new revenue, but you can’t win the sovereign debt war without cuts in programs and services … especially entitlements.
How to Win the Global Jobs Competitiveness War with 1,700 Rupees
India’s Department of Human Resources sponsored a competition worldwide for a $10 smart tablet computer. The goal was to get 220 million children online in India, a very poor county where few could afford a $500 Apple iPad or even a $199 Kindle Fire.
After five years, no one had come up with a $10 smart tablet. However, a London-based company Datawind did develop one for 2433 Indian Rupees (INR), about $47. With a $15 subsidy from the government, the tablet, named Askash, is available to teachers and students for 1,700 Rupees, about $32.
Datawind is making 100,000 units a month, giving Indian children word processing, web browsing and video conferencing capabilities … for 1,700 Rupees. Production capability will increase over time with the goal still being to get all 220 million of India’s children online.
As far as the $10 goal, it’s still on the table. “The intent is to start a price war,” said Datawind’s chief executive, Suneet Singh Tuli.
I have always wondered what would happen if everybody in the world had immediate access to all of the information in the world. Well, we are about to find out … India is about to find out.
War for Global Jobs is America’s next War for Everything
Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, in his new book, The Coming Jobs War, writes, “Losing World War II would have ended America as the world knew it, not to mention much of the democratic Western world.” He writes, “It was a war for America’s very freedom, for the West’s freedom, for leadership of the free world. It was a war for all the marbles. Everything was on the line, and a loss would have changed everything.”
Clifton concludes, “The global war for jobs determines the leader of the free world. If the United States allows China or any country or region to out-enterprise it, out-job-create it, out-grow its GDP, everything changes. This is America’s next war for everything.”
The Next Economic Empires, the Potential Societal Hell
As to leadership, Clifton says that “traditional leadership through politics, military force, religion, or personal values won’t work in the future like it has in the past.”
Here’s why:
“As of 2010, the world has a total gross domestic product (GDP) — or the sum of countries’ total goods and services for one year — of $60 trillion. Of this, the United States has nearly $15 trillion or about 25%, which is huge. Over the next 30 years, the global GDP will grow to an estimated $200 trillion. So a new $140 trillion of customers, employees, new businesses, and equity will come into the global mix. The global war for jobs will be an all-out battle for that $140 trillion because within that sum of money is the next evolution of the best jobs in the world. Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential for societal hell.”
For emphasis: “Within that $140 trillion will rise the next economic empires, as well as the potential societal hell.”
December 7: A Salute to all Veterans
On November 9, I was honored by my friend Glenn Jernigan with an invitation to attend a Salute to the Veterans at the Capital City Club in Raleigh. I had the distinct pleasure of sitting with Medal of Honor award winner Joe Marm. Since 1861, the Medal of Honor has been awarded by the President of the United States to our nation’s bravest Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen.
You can read Marm’s story here. It’s a story of one man risking his life in the heat of battle during the Vietnam War for the greater good of his company and country. Citation: For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of life above and beyond the call of duty.
Throughout the year, the nation has watch the 535 members of the U.S. Congress fighting the legislative battles in the effort to win the two economic world wars our country is engaged in: the war against sovereign debt and the war for global jobs competitiveness.
Can you name a single member of the U.S. Senate or U.S. House willing to sacrifice their party or their ideology for the greater good? Willing to make the kind of sacrifices that would earn them a “Medal of Honor” in the war against sovereign debt and global jobs competitiveness.
I didn’t think so. That’s why they are in trouble next year with the American voters.
Today, as we honor those who lost their lives in the Japanese bombing raid on our ships and airfields at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941, and those who died in the ensuing battles in the two great theaters of World War II, the European and the Asian-Pacific, may we remember that winning takes unity of purpose, a willingness to sacrifice, innovation, productivity … and a few Medal of Honor winners.
May God bless all who have served … and all who are serving.
– END –
Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!!!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32 “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get
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Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
“The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.”
Sam Johnson, Chairman NC House Appropriations Committee 1969; Johnson, Hearn, Vinegar, Gee & Glass, Raleigh, NC
Dear Lord: We Thank Thee for the Blessing of the Super Committee; The Best Way to Get Rid of a Bad Law is to Enforce It
Post: November 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 32
As We the People Prepare for Thanksgiving, May We Also Prepare our Ballots
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
Sam Johnson, a distinguished Raleigh attorney who chaired the North Carolina House Appropriations Committee in 1969, instructed me many years ago, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” Johnson’s Law applies to everything in life. If you want to get rid of a bad preacher, put them on TV! If you want to get rid of a bad governor, let them govern.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible Members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
But what about the president, isn’t he equally responsible for the inability of our national leaders to come up with a plan to deal with our debt/deficit/jobs crisis? The voters say it’s the Congress.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for Congress is 12.3%, with 81.7% disapproving of the job Congress is doing.
Today’s Real Clear Politics average “Job Approval” for President Obama is 44.1%, with 49.1% disapproving of the job the president is doing.
No matter what we think the truth is about who is to blame for the failure of the debt/deficit/jobs crisis negotiations, the fact is that nearly four times as many Americans blame Congress for the failure than the president. Who is more likely to be punished politically, the guy with the 44.1% job approval or the guys with the 12.3% job approval?
This Congress has proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are incapable of leading this country out of our economic crisis and into a future of global competitiveness with the emerging economic superpowers.
A Bankrupt Country is Defenseless, Illiterate, Unhealthy and Uncompetitive
The U.S. Congress has given the American public no other choice than to replace them. Why? Because they have proven time and again that their party or their ideology is more important than the greater good of the United States.
A bankrupt country is a defenseless country. We are rendering our country bankrupt, and therefore defenseless, with sacred cow defense spending. This Congress has sold us out to the Pentagon and the military industrial complex.
A bankrupt country cannot educate its children. We are rendering our country bankrupt and threatening our overall literacy with sacred cow education spending. This Congress has sold us out to the education bureaucracy and teachers unions.
A bankrupt country cannot promote the general welfare of its citizens. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our most needy vulnerable with cradle to the grave sacred cow social programs, retirement packages and health care entitlements. This Congress has sold us out to greedy public employee unions and greedy special interest groups … like SEIU and AARP.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial environment for global private sector free market competitiveness. We are rendering our country bankrupt and our businesses uncompetitive with bailouts of our banks, automobile manufacturers, housing lenders and insurance companies. This Congress has sold us out to Bank of America, GM, AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
A bankrupt country cannot create an entrepreneurial infrastructure of great universities and public/private partnerships for innovative thinking and long-range problem solving for a new generation of young adults by bankrupting our country with tax loopholes and low marginal rates for those who have benefited the most from the freedom to compete for profit in America. This Congress has sold us out to those who can afford to game the system … and those who turn statesmen into cowed wimps with ploys like the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
It’s Time for a New Generation of Radical Moderates, Reformers and Innovators
Throughout the three past election cycles of shifting partisan fortunes, voters were trying to say to would-be leaders that our country is in serious trouble and that we must put partisanship, ideology and sacred cow budgeting second to the greater need for economic stability and global competitiveness.
In 2006 and 2008, Republicans lost the trust of the American people. Democrats took over the U.S. Congress and the Oval Office.
Big Mistake #1: The Democrats thought …
Big Mistake #1: Democrats thought they were being elected because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about deficit spending, the national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Democrats or liberals.
In 2008, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street meltdown, bank bailouts and huge job losses. They had lost faith in the ability of Republicans and conservatives to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2009, President Obama and the Democrats have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why Democrats summarily lost the Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009, Teddy Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts in 2010, along with the U.S. House of Representatives, Governors and state legislators all over America in the fall of 2010.
On March 23, 2010, in an Indonesian TV interview, President Obama referred to his healthcare reform bill as, “The most important domestic priority.” Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!!!!!!
My Democrat friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Democrat or a liberal.
Big Mistake #2: The Republicans thought …
Big Mistake #2: Republicans thought they were being elected in 2010 because of their party and their ideology. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
Voters were concerned about a $1 trillion budget deficit, a $13 trillion national debt, and wars being waged because of weapons of mass destruction … that didn’t exist. They wanted competent leaders to solve those problems … not Republicans or conservatives.
In 2010, voters were concerned about the housing crisis and the Wall Street bonuses and $787 billion stimulus spending and ever-increasing unemployment and foreclosures. They had lost faith in the ability of Democrats and liberals to solve those problems and wanted competent leaders to solve those problems.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
Since taking their oath of office in January of 2011, Congressional Republicans have governed as if the voters chose them because of their party and ideology. That is precisely why all of the polls show the job approval of Congress in general and Republicans in particular at historic lows.
You had a chance to earn the faith of the American people during the debt ceiling debate in the summer and the debt/deficit management debate this fall and you blew it.
My Republican friends, they elected you to solve the problems of the day … not because you are a Republican or a conservative.
It’s Time to Throw Them Out … Especially the Democrats and the Republicans
Sam Johnson instructed me wisely when he said, “The best way to get rid of a bad law is to enforce it.” We can certainly see the value of Johnson’s Law when applied to this Congress.
If you want to get rid of fiscally irresponsible members of Congress, let them manage the budget.
As we the people prepare for Thanksgiving, may we give thanks for the U.S. Congressional Super Committee for confirming what we already knew: our nation’s greatest problem is a gridlocked Congress and the only solution is to throw them out … especially the Republicans and the Democrats.
– END –
Happy Thanksgiving!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30 “The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.” Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2,
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Post: November 3, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 30
“The job of the political leader is to reach past the distractions and to continue to communicate what they think matters, and to try and do it in a way that the American people decide they offer a better future.”
Newt Gingrich, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 2, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: GOP U.S. Presidential Ticket
Yesterday’s John Davis Political Report suggested that the Republican Presidential ticket in 2012 was likely to be Romney-Gingrich, and that President Obama may have to replace Vice President Biden with a business person, like Erskine Bowles, in order to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who has the credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Gingrich brings two valuable/essential political assets to the GOP ticket: staying power (he’s as tough skinned, politically savvy and as intelligent as anyone), and conservative bona fides. No Democrat will defeat Gingrich in a Vice Presidential debate, and no Republican will spark more enthusiasm among Tea Party economic conservatives and Republican social conservatives than Gingrich.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 11/3/2011: Romney-Gingrich likely GOP Ticket
- Romney’s seasoning will win him the nomination … as the last contender standing.
- However, Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Tea Party support as well as the support of the most conservative Republicans … who don’t like him at all.
- Romney: has been at 25% all year, meaning 75% of the GOP prefer someone else.
- Newt Gingrich: will bring conservative enthusiasm to the ticket.
- Rick Perry: will continue to implode under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush. Fear of a third Bush term will be his doom. (Oct 2008 Bush job approval was 25%; Obama job approval today is: 45%)
- Herman Cain: is through due in part to an inept campaign manager (thinks blowing cigarette smoke into the camera in a TV ad is politically clever) and no campaign organization (try turning out Iowa caucus voters on a cold rainy January day without a ground game). Cain’s apparent strategy, winning the White House with a “There’s a sucker born every minute” snow job, was doomed from the start. His poor crisis management in the face of sexual harassment allegations is confirmation of the ineptitude of his campaign manager and his not ready for prime time candidacy.
- Ron Paul: too old at age 76 to begin an administration (Reagan oldest at 69; Wm. H. Harrison was 67); doubts about electability continue to plague the Paul camp.
- Rick Santorum: too angry/whiny/defensive (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.8%)
- Michelle Bachmann: too happy (Real Clear Politics polls average 3.8%); “out of money and ideas,” says Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s former campaign manager.
- John Huntsman: Obama’s Ambassador to China (Real Clear Politics polls average 1.2%)
- Newt Gingrich: the conservative’s conservative; great debater; staying power at the presidential level.
Gingrich will pick up Cain’s Votes in NC and US
North Carolina: Today’s Public Policy Polling survey shows GOP support for Gingrich at 22%, ahead of Romney’s 19%. Although Cain leads the list at 30%, his days are numbered. Gingrich will inherit most of Cain’s votes in North Carolina.
Perry has 10% among NC Republicans, Bachmann 4%, Paul 4%, Huntsman 2% and Santorum 2%.
National Republican Presidential: Although in the Real Clear Politics polling average for Gingrich runs behind Cain (26%), Romney (24%) and Perry (10%), he is more likely than Perry to pick up Cain’s votes … which will put him ahead of Perry within the month.
– END –
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John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29 “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011 Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President On Labor Day, September 2, 2011,
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Post: November 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 29
“I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.”
Erskine Bowles, speaking to Congressional Super Committee, November 1, 2011
Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: U.S. President
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, including the GOP Presidential Nominee. Here are updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 11/2/2011: Obama wins
- Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average: Obama at 45% approval; 49.6% disapproval.
- Today, Gallup polling average has Obama’s job approval at 45%, with 48% disapproving.
- If Obama’s job approval is only 5 points from a winning 50% approval rating during worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, then any sustained measure of growth in jobs/economy will restore his political viability.
- Today’s Public Policy Polling release shows Obama’s job approval in NC the same as the national figures: 45% approve; 50% disapprove.
- The PPP poll shows Obama virtually tied in North Carolina with Romney, and 3 to 8 points ahead of all other GOP contenders.
Running Against “Obstructionist” Republicans May Not be Enough
Although President Obama will continue to run with some success against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress, that strategy alone will not likely be enough to restore the confidence of Americans in his ability to lead the nation out of an economic crisis.
Despite the fact that Congressional job approval is at a dismal average of 12.7% per Real Clear Politics; 82.3% disapprove, the winning presidential ticket will be the one the voters see as most likely to deal most effectively with the great needs of the day: jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
If you think about the backgrounds of President Obama and Vice President Biden, there is very little that would give Americans confidence that they are the most capable among governmental leaders to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, most importantly, the new normal of global competitiveness.
Romney-Gingrich Ticket a Serious Threat to Obama-Biden
A Romney-Gingrich ticket would be real threat to the Obama-Biden ticket because Romney has been in the private sector his entire life, with good success. Clearly he can make the better argument with Republicans, Tea Party conservatives and undecided Independent voters that he has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness.
So, what is Obama to do next year if he is losing the debate over who is most competent to deal with the great economic problems of the day? He has no choice but to balance the Democratic ticket with someone who brings business experience and sound fiscal management to the table.
Erskine Bowles is that someone.
Yesterday, Erskine Bowles told the Congressional Super Committee, “I have great respect for each of you individually. But collectively, I am worried that you are going to fail … fail the country.” That’s the kind of no-nonsense straight forward commentary the people of America want to hear someone say to elected officials.
If Obama is losing ground next year and needs to strengthen the ticket with someone who has the best credentials to deal with jobs and economic growth, the debt and deficit crisis, and, the new normal of global competitiveness, there could not be a better choice than Bowles.
- Life-long successful businessman with MBA from Columbia
- Served on the board of many respected companies like GM, Morgan Stanley and Facebook
- Head of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Clinton
- Chief of Staff to President Clinton during longest period of economic expansion in U.S. History
- Key negotiator on behalf of Clinton in the successful bipartisan talks that led to a balanced budget
- Headed a task force under Gov. Hunt on rural economic prosperity
- President of the University of North Carolina System 2006-2010
- Co-chair of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform
Just in case an Obama-Bowles ticket comes together, here is a bumper sticker for them to consider:
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27 “To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.” Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011 1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5% After
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Post: October 10, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 27
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity.”
Undisclosed NC Republican legislator, September 28, 2011
1964 GOP Presidential nominee Barry Goldwater Lost 61.1% to 38.5%
After my report two weeks ago titled, “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I received the following emailed comment from a Republican member of the legislature … a friend with sensible views I have long admired:
“To compromise one’s principles of right/wrong for the sake of getting something done will only lead us to where we are today: a country and a society of mediocrity. We must continue our struggle in the pursuit of excellence and return to the fundamental principles upon which American greatness was built upon. Compromise is not the answer.”
I immediately thought about the 1964 GOP nominee for President Sen. Barry Goldwater, R-Arizona, and his famous battle cry, “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!”
Extremism in the defense of liberty cost the GOP the White House in 1964, and extremism in the defense of uncompromising economic conservatism during the worst recession since the Great Depression will cost the GOP the White House in 2012. It is simply politically inept.
However, it cuts both ways.
Uncompromising liberal economic extremists (Democrats and Republicans) got this country into the crisis we all face today. For decades, in Washington D.C. and in Raleigh, N.C., liberals have refused to be restrained by the economic caution of conservatives when it comes to government spending.
The unwillingness of liberals to compromise is the reason our country got into this crisis, and the unwillingness of conservatives to compromise is the reason we can’t get out of this crisis.
24,845,594 Reasons Conservative Economic Extremism will Cost the GOP
Take a look at today’s US Debt Clock, a real-time accounting of our nation’s finances, and you will see that “Actual Unemployed” in the United States is 24,845,594. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “Actual Unemployed” as the total unemployed, added to all marginally attached workers, plus those working part time but want to work full time.
In my report “Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains Why NJ Gov. Chris Christie Can Defeat President Barack Obama, I wrote about a Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, that shows that Americans strongly prefer leaders who will compromise to stimulate the economy and jobs growth.
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
- By almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
Voters want jobs and job security, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
Don’t Tell Mama I’m a Member of the U.S. Congress, She Thinks I’m a Lobbyist
There is an old joke passed down for many generations in political circles that goes like this: “Don’t tell mama I’m a lobbyist, she thinks I’m a piano player at a house of ill repute.” Well, in today’s hostile political environment that joke could easily be rewritten: “Don’t tell mama I’m a member of the U.S. Congress, she thinks I’m a lobbyist.”
A new national survey by Gallup released Today, Wednesday, October 12, 2011 reveals that the U.S. Congress is “on track to register its lowest annual average approval rating for any year since Gallup began measuring congressional approval in 1974.”
- Only 13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job.
- Republicans’ and Democrats’ approval of Congress is identical, at 14%, similar to the 13% among independents.
- Comparison: President Obama’s job approval is 41% today, October 12, 2011
NOTE for Clarification: When pollsters measure the job approval of the U.S. Congress, they are referring to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.
Many in the GOP seem to miss the fact that the 47 Republican members of the U.S. Senate and the 240 Republican members of the U.S. House are included in the historic high dissatisfaction with Congress. Republicans have 287 of the 535 members of Congress, or 54%.
If 81% of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, that includes most Republicans in America disapproving of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing.
Economic Extremism will cost the GOP dearly in 2012 … but there is a win-win
Republicans are in trouble with American voters because they have allowed the most conservative among them to put “sticking to beliefs even if little gets done” ahead of “compromising in order to get things done.”
Voters want jobs and economic stability, not ideological defiance. Voters want a bipartisan long-range plan for dealing with the nation’s debt and deficit crisis, not economic Puritanism.
So, to my Republican friend with a history of sensible views while serving in the legislature who wrote me that “Compromise is not the answer,” please remember that in 1964, Barry Goldwater received only 38.5% of the votes to 61.1% for President Lyndon Johnson. Goldwater carried 6 states out of 50 (AZ, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC), and only 52 electoral votes compared to 486 for Johnson.
Still not willing to compromise? OK, there is a way out without having to compromise … collaborate. At least be willing to collaborate. It’s your best hope of ending the worst recession since the Great Depression, jump-starting jobs growth, and restoring confidence with a long-range plan for stability.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26 “And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome
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“Compromise” or “Stick to Beliefs” Study Explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Appeal to the GOP and Why He Can Defeat President Barack Obama
Post: September 28, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 26
“And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
Gov. Chris Christie, R-New Jersey, Meet the Press, June 26, 2011
Less than Half of Tea Party Supporters Say “Stick to Beliefs”
Fiscal conservatives who believe that it’s more important for our leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs even if little gets done” than it is to “Compromise in order to get things done” will be happy to know that almost half of all Tea Party supporters agree, according to an new Gallup survey released yesterday.
Ummmmmm, only half?
A Gallup survey released Monday, Sept. 26, shows that 45% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important for leaders in Washington to “Stick to their beliefs” even if little gets done. A surprising 31% of Tea Party supporters say it’s more important to “Compromise” in order to get things done.
Here is the Gallup question:
“Is it more important for political leaders in Washington to compromise in order to get things done or is it more important to stick to their beliefs even if little gets done.”
- It’s more important to “compromise” in order to get things done say 51% of Americans, as compared to only 28% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. The remaining 21% are neutral.
- Republicans are evenly split: 37% “Stick to beliefs;” 36% “Compromise.” Neutral: 27%.
- Democrats are overwhelmingly for “Compromise” (62%) in order to get things done in Washington compared to only 20% who say “Stick to beliefs” even if little gets done. Neutral: 18%.
Independents are 2-to-1 “Compromise” over “Stick to Beliefs;” Problematic for Current Slate of GOP Presidential Contenders
The most ominous message for uncompromising fiscal conservatives in the new Gallup survey is that by almost 2-to-1, Independents say it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs” even if little gets done (27%).
The Tea Party has an inordinate amount of influence over the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination process. There is no greater evidence of that point than the fact that the entire GOP presidential slate agreed that they would say “no” to a deficit/debt reduction deal of $10 in spending cuts to $1 in increased revenue.
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, the moderator at the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over tax increases.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to 1 deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s Unique Strength is in Dealing with Adversaries: “Principled Outcome Where People are Also Compromising.”
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was a guest on Meet the Press on June 26, 2011 (Transcript here).
The debt ceiling debate was stalled. The president was finally stepping into the negotiations. The American public was divided according to an AP poll: 41% opposed to raising the debt ceiling; 38% favored raising the debt ceiling.
David Gregory, host of Meet the Press, opened the show with a taped interview with Gov. Christie after noting that Christie was coming off a big budget victory where the Democratic-controlled New Jersey State Assembly passed a landmark cost-cutting budget that would save the state $120 billion over the next 30 years.
MR. GREGORY: “The battle, of course, [here in Washington] is between spending and taxes. What’s the way out of this mess here?
GOV. CHRISTIE: “The first thing is that the president had to get involved personally. And what I found in New Jersey, in our experience in dealing with what you just talked about, was there is no substitute for the three leaders in the room having to look at each other and having to hash this out. And everybody’s got to put skin in the game, David. I mean, I gave on things that I wanted. Obviously, the Senate–Democratic Senate president in my state, and the Democratic speaker gave on things they wanted, and we came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles. And that’s the key. You can’t ask people to violate their principles. And so there has to be a way to find principled outcome where people are also compromising.”
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the appeal of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to the GOP and the best argument for why he can defeat President Obama in 2012.
Throughout all of my reporting on the presidential race I have maintained that President Obama would defeat the current slate of contenders … in great part because they would not compromise on a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts over new taxes.
I have also said repeatedly that if NJ Gov. Chris Christie is the nominee, all bets are off.
The new Gallup study showing that Americas prefer that our leaders in Washington “Compromise” in order to get things done rather than “Stick to Beliefs” even if little gets done explains NJ Gov. Chris Christie’s appeal to the GOP … and why he can defeat President Barack Obama.
“We came to a compromise that didn’t violate our principles.” That’s the leadership Americans are looking for … and deserve.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25 “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.” U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the
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No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
Post: September 22, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 25
“What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the 48 GOP caucus members for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.
No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams
The headline above the fold in today’s News and Observer is, “Obama: no shortcut to peace.” The quote was from President Obama’s speech yesterday to the United Nations in which he urged Israel and Palestine to settle their differences without relying on UN action.
On the economic front, he could have added, “and there is no shortcut to prosperity.”
A few years ago, I drove my daughter and her friend to New York City for a week of theater and shopping. She had dreamed of such a week for a long time and had saved over $1000.
It worked out quite well for me. After all, for some time I had wanted to get away to work on a book I had dreamed of writing. This was the perfect opportunity. The girls would leave the room mid-morning and spend the entire day in the city and not come back to the hotel room except to dress for an evening performance. I would be free to write all day the entire week.
What I did not anticipate was a near-fatal case of writers block.
Despite numerous attempts to establish momentum, I ended the first day with very little accomplished. That was followed by a second day of struggling to be productive … although I ended the day with a glimmer of hope after a couple of hours of research at New York City’s Mid-Manhattan Public Library.
Surely the third day would be a breakthrough of productivity. Not so. As noontime rolled around, I was no farther along than when I started the day. Frustrated, I decided to take a walk.
After a couple of blocks of aimless wandering, I noticed a crowd of people walking into St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue for the noon mass. Not having any better idea of what to do with my time, I decided to join them. Maybe prayer and meditation would jump-start my writing.
Voila! I found the remedy to my chronic writers block that day … in the homily. The title of the homily was, “There are no shortcuts to your dreams.”
I went straight back to the room and went to work. I ended up having a very productive week.
U.S. House Speaker Boehner Chastises Tea Party Republicans
We should all thank the Tea Party for forcing a nation in economic denial to see the nation-destroying consequences of unlimited sacred cow budgeting and unchecked spending and borrowing.
However, if the Tea Party does not loosen up on opportunities like a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases, insisting on no new taxes, then it will be the Democrats who will be thanking the Tea Party for returning them to state and federal legislative majorities.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said as much today when he chastised the 48 members of the GOP caucus for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”
There are no shortcuts to:
- Adjusting to the global economic correction: a monumental event likely requiring a painfully interminable period of austerity;
- Economic growth or job creation: an exercise requiring cautious and deliberate investments by the private sector in expansion that eventually will begin to add jobs;
- Getting our budget under control: an exercise requiring both painful spending cuts and program consolidation/elimination and tax reform … including new revenue.
Saying no to taxes is a shortcut.
Updated Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress
On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, GOP Presidential Nominee, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Governor and the likely North Carolina Senate and House majorities. Here are select updates:
U.S. President UPDATE 9/22: Obama will win a second term (without NC)
- Obama’s mid-40s job approval (43.6% Real Clear Politics average) at the lowest point of his administration, amidst worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, argues for a near-50% job approval next fall with any measure of sustained growth in jobs/economy. He wins at 50%.
- Obama will run against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress whose job approval hovers around 15% (Congressional job approval 13.5% Real Clear Politics average)
- Everyone in the current GOP presidential field has said “no” to a 10-to-1 spending over taxes deal and are losing credibility among most voters because their uncompromising stand.
- GALLUP released a survey September 20 in which:
- 70% of Americans favor “increasing taxes on some corporations by eliminating certain tax deductions,” including 53% of Republicans/Leaning Republican.
- 66% favor “increasing income taxes on individuals earning at least $200,000 (families $250,000),” including 41% of Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
- Over half of Republicans/Leaning Republicans favor 4 of the 6 proposals in Obama’s American Jobs Act including 84% who support “providing tax cuts for small businesses, including incentives to hire workers,” 56% who support “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters,” and 50% who support “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”
Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, reaffirmed in a Fox News Sunday interview on July 10, 2011, that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.”
The greatest political trap that Republicans could find themselves in is for voters to conclude that their refusal to compromise on the American Jobs Act is driven by their #1 priority, to make Obama a one-term president.
GOP Presidential UPDATE 9/22: Mitt Romney likely GOP nominee
- Rick Perry will collapse under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.
- If Perry wins the nomination, most Americans will likely see him as a 3rd Bush term (Bush’s job approval was 25% in 2008), weakening his chances in a General Election.
- Romney will win out of the current field because he will be the last one standing after the others self-destruct. Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Republican and Tea Party support … and he has yet to generate much enthusiasm among right-wing conservatives.
- Recent polls show 51% of Republicans would prefer someone other than the current slate.
- NJ Governor Christ Christie can defeat Obama. Filing/running required.
U.S. Senate UPDATE 9/22: Republicans will win the U.S. Senate majority
- Currently 51/47 Democrat majority w/2 Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Big GOP Advantage: Of 33 US Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Only 10 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2012, most deemed safe.
- GOP needs to win 4 of the 21 Democratic seats for majority (if they hold what they have).
U.S. House UPDATE 9/22: Republicans risk losing U.S. House majority
Republicans are clearly at risk of losing the majority in the US House of Representatives, as uncompromising Tea Party zealots will alienate independents as well as defeat/weaken GOP incumbents, rendering them vulnerable to moderate Democrats in swing districts.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, chided the 48 Republicans in his caucus this morning for rejecting the stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, causing the bill to fail. “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen,” Boehner told reporters today.
The uncompromising actions of the Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. House have led to fears of a government shutdown reminiscent of the one under former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an event that led to the loss of confidence in Republicans … and the loss of the majority in Congress to the Democrats.
U.S. House Republicans cannot lose more confidence in their ability to lead. There’s none left.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012 Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3 NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
Post: September 5, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 3
NOTE: This is the final in a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that began on September 2 Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. Today is Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, including U.S. President, Congress, NC Governor and Legislature.
Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012
FORECAST – AGAINST THE CURRENT GOP FIELD, OBAMA WILL WIN A SECOND TERM – WITHOUT THE HELP OF NORTH CAROLINA:
If you go to the Real Clear Politics website, you can see a list of all polls conducted during the month of August. There were 20 polls that pitted Obama against either a generic GOP contender or one of the announced candidates for the Republican nomination.
Obama’s average in the 20 match-ups was 44.8% to 42.6% for the Republican. If he is holding his own despite his lousy job approval numbers and the continued dire economic circumstances facing the nation, then he is well on his way for reelection. (By the way, I did not include the 3 match-ups between Obama and Palin; he trounced her by 20+ points.)
Today, Labor Day, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
It’s Jobs, Spending, Global Economic Correction … and a Leadership Crisis
Americans want so desperately to see encouraging signs of economic recovery that any positive news sustained over several months will have an exponentially positive impact on President Obama’s reelection potential.
The potential for sustained economic improvement grows daily as all political leaders realize that their days are numbered because voters are in a foul mood and want results now.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the jobs crisis.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the economic crisis caused by unsustainable federal budgeting.
- Voters want plans now with defensible details that address the crisis caused by the global economic correction.
Voters have determined that America has a political leadership crisis equal in magnitude as the country’s economic crisis. All incumbents are vulnerable, especially members of Congress.
Remember, today’s Real Clear Politics has Obama’s job approval at 44%, with 51% disapproving. Congressional job approval is 12%; with 84% disapproving.
Voters are much more likely to vent their frustration at Congress than the President.
FORECAST – MITT ROMNEY WILL BE THE GOP NOMINEE:
After the dust settles at the Republican National Convention in 2012, there is a greater likelihood that Romney will be the nominee, with a Tea Party running mate to galvanize the social and economic right.
Republicans are hierarchical, and Romney has earned the right to assume the mantle.
The current front runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, will self-destruct trying to defend his loose-cannon comments like those in his new book, “Fed Up!” Example: Social Security is a “violent” attack on core American values.
The book is an opposition research professional’s mother lode. “I wouldn’t have written that book if I was going to run for the presidency of the United States,” Perry said in an interview.
Perry, although a former Democrat who served as Al Gore’s state campaign chairman during the 1988 Presidential primaries, is a bona fide fiscal conservative who switched to the GOP in 1989.
However, Perry must overcome these two major obstacles:
- His trigger happy mouth has produced enough attack campaign fodder to fill the Astrodome.
- His Texas swagger and bravado are too reminiscent of George W. Bush, the President who voters blame more for the nation’s economic woes than the current President. There is no way the voters are going to vote for a third term for George W. Bush.
According to a September 1, 2011 Public Policy Polling release, “GOP voters like Perry better than Romney. But independents are a lot more willing to vote for Romney than Perry.”
Ultimately, Perry will scare off Independents.
The only other Republican who could defeat Romney (and Obama for that matter) says he’s not interested: NJ Gov. Chris Christie. Keep an eye on Christie. If he gets in, everything changes.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL OUTRIGHT LOSE/AT LEAST NEARLY LOSE THE US HOUSE:
The US House GOP leaders have wiped out the respect most American votes had for their potential to offer strong, problem-solving leadership. When US House Speaker Boehner caved in to Rep. Eric Cantor, R-VA and the other caucus Tea Partiers over the debt ceiling debate, his stock plummeted … along with the entire caucus.
Uncompromising ideologues in the US House GOP Caucus will continue to divide and conqueror the caucus, giving moderate Democrats (I repeat for emphasis, “moderate Democrats”) an opportunity to win the toss-up races and get within range of a small majority.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN US SENATE MAJORITY:
The US Senate Republicans are likely to win the majority because of the way the deck is stacked in 2012. Of the 33 US Senate races up for grabs, 23 are currently held be Democrats. The Senate is currently a 51/47 Democratic majority, with 2 Independents who regularly caucus with the Democrats. That slim majority is too close to hold while defending 23 seats held by Democrats.
Retiring senators include 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. If you add the 6 seats open due to retiring Democrats to the 17 additional incumbent Democrats up for reelection, you can see the big problem that Democrats face.
Only 8 Republicans are up for reelection in 2012.
FORECAST – REPUBLICANS WILL WIN NC HOUSE & SENATE:
North Carolina House and Senate Republicans are on track for a long period of sustained majority party status.
If the state Senate and House maps pass judicial scrutiny, then in a good Republican year they will win veto-proof super majorities in both chambers. In a bad Republican year they will maintain the majority.
If you add the maps to the money advantage, you can readily see the long-term prospects for GOP majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly.
The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation put out an excellent study this week showing that Republican Senators had outraised the Senate Democrats 10-to-1 in the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Elections. The NC House Republicans have out-raised their loyal opponents by a 3-to-1 margin.
FORECAST – REPUBLICAN PAT McCRORY WILL WIN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE:
Governor Perdue has had a dismal couple of years struggling to establish her effectiveness as the leader of the 10th largest state in America. Judging by her chronic low job approval and favorability ratings … and the five veto overrides … she has yet to convince anyone beyond her base that she deserves a second term.
In 2008, Perdue won the race for governor against GOP nominee Pat McCrory only because of the historic voter registration and turnout of Democrats by the Obama 2012 Campaign for President. However, Obama is not likely to invest in a long-shot like North Carolina due to the loss of the surprise advantage (no one took his potential in NC seriously in 2008), and financial restraints.
Perdue’s relatively weak candidacy when compared to McCrory’s can be seen in the fact that even after outspending him $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats, she barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.
- In an August 17 poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, only 37% of North Carolinians approved of Perdue’s performance as governor; 48% disapproved.
- PPP August 17 poll: “Perdue trails McCrory statewide (39% to 47%).”
- PPP August 17 poll: “The Governor wins the support of only two-thirds of Democrats, a fifth of whom defect to McCrory.
Further evidence of a weakened candidacy is the campaign fundraising report filed in July with the NC State Board of Elections. Perdue reported raising $1.3 million, with an outstanding debt to herself and her husband of $776,500 and cash on hand totaling $1.3 million. McCrory reported raising just over $1 million, with $940,000 in the bank.
Even if the economy begins to recover, and Obama’s job approval numbers return to a safe 50%, and he wins the White House, he is not likely to carry North Carolina.
If Obama can’t carry North Carolina, Perdue can’t win the governor’s race.
Well, there you have it. The John Davis Political Report Labor Day Forecasts.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
– END –
Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
Premium Monthly Subscription $245. Premium Election Cycle Subscription $315 (through 12/31/2012!) Monthly rate for Premium Annual Subscription is now available at $23 per month (cancel at any time). Click HERE to PRINT Subscription Reply Form. Subscribe online HERE!
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2 “I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage
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LABOR DAY HOLIDAY 3-PART SERIES
Part 2: Question that Reelected Obama
Post: September 2, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 23 Part 2
“I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal?”
Bret Baier, Fox News Anchor, Moderator, GOP Presidential Debate, Ames, Iowa, Aug. 11, 2011
This is a three-part Labor Day Holiday Series of the John Davis Political Report that begins today with Part 1: Word that NC Republicans should add to their Wristbands, and, later this afternoon, Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama. On Monday, look for Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012.
Part 2: Question that Reelected President Obama
The John Davis Political Report stated on August 12, 2011, “Obama’s probability of winning a second term remains high thanks to the low level of support among Americans for Congressional Republicans, especially the Tea Party fiscal conservatives.”
A review of two dozen national polls conducted in August 2011 support that point.
The AP-GfK poll conducted August 18-22, 2011, is a goldmine of insight on the eve of the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the election cycle.
As I noted in my report on Tuesday, one of the best facts to use to understand why President Obama is still in the running for a second term is the AP-GfK finding that “More Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor.”
Here are a few more illustrations of the growing voter dissatisfaction with the Republican leadership:
- Last November 2010, AP-GfK poll asked voters, “Regardless of how you might vote, do you think Pres. Barack Obama deserves to be reelected.” Only 39% said yes; 54% said no. Two weeks ago, August 2011, those numbers have shifted favorably for Obama, with 47% saying he deserves to be reelected and 48% saying he does not (that’s a net negative 15 pts in November 2010 to only a 1 point negative in August 2011).
- Last October 2010, AP-GfK poll asked likely voters, “Who do you trust to do a better job of handling the economy, the Democrats are the Republicans?” Republicans received a plurality of 47%; Democrats were chosen by 44%. In August 2011, those numbers have now shifted, with 45% saying Democrats and 40% saying Republicans.
- How about “Handling Taxes?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 41%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 46%; Republicans 40%.
- How about “Creating Jobs?” In October 2010, among likely voters, Republicans 52%, Democrats 40%. August 2011 poll: Democrats 44%; Republicans 42%.
The same poll reveals a precipitous decline in support for the Tea Party, which has gone from 36% support among likely voters in October 2010 down to 25% support in August 2011.
Obama Just Won a Second Term
On August 11, 2011, GOP presidential contenders staked themselves out as uncompromising far right fiscal conservatives when asked a question by Bret Baier, moderator of the Iowa Presidential Debate, on the matter of whether to accept a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases deal.
BRET BAIER: Well, I’m going to ask a question to everyone here on the stage. Say you had a deal, a real spending cuts deal, 10-to-1, spending cuts to tax increases. Who on this stage would walk away from that deal? Can you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes, you’d walk away on the 10-to-1 deal?
BAIER: OK. Just making sure everyone at home and everyone here knows that they all raised their hands. They’re all saying that they feel so strongly about not raising taxes that a 10 to one deal, they would walk away from.”
When I saw all eight Republican candidates for president at the Iowa debate on August 11 say that they would not accept a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax increases I immediately thought, “Obama just won a second term.”
Both parties won because they were the only option on the ballot
I understand how Republican and Tea Party fiscal conservatives can see Democrats as having an addiction to spending much like an alcoholic … out of control; can’t be trusted with one drink. I understand how they conclude that Democrats cannot be trusted with a 10-to-1 deal. But Independent voters can’t understand why GOP leaders balk at a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes.
It all goes back to misperceptions on election-day November 2010. Republicans thought those Independent voters switched from Democrats to Republicans because they wanted leaders who would say no to a 10-to-1 deal of spending cuts to tax hikes. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on Democrats it was because they had lost confidence in the ability of Democrats to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Republicans were the only other opinion on the ballot!
Obama and the Democrats got into the same trouble after their victory in 2008 for the same reason … thinking that voters chose them because of the Democratic Party platform. Wrong.
When Independent voters turned their backs on President Bush and the Republicans in 2008, it was because they had lost confidence in the GOP’s ability to manage the country’s economic crisis and reestablish job security and responsible government spending.
Democrats were the only other option on the ballot!
Voters don’t want Democrats or Republicans … they could care less about liberal or conservative ideology … they want jobs, hope for regaining our economic footing here in the United States, and an end to outrageously irresponsible government spending.
As of Labor Day Holiday weekend 2011, uncompromising Republicans are Obama’s best hope for winning a second term.
Remember, on Monday I will send Part 3: Labor Day Forecasts for 2012, in which I will forecast the next President, US House majority party, US Senate majority party, NC Senate and House majority parties, and the next NC Governor.
Here’s wishing you a wonderful Labor Day Holiday.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report!
John N. Davis, Editor
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