John Davis Consulting

Post: August 18, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 21

“You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”

Fmr. Wyoming Republican U.S. Senator Alan Simpson,

Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission

Investors Political Daily: Obama’s Probability of Carrying NC in 2012 is 44%

This is the first look at President Obama’s probability of carrying North Carolina next year using a dozen key political and economic variables.

Click here to view PDF of Key Variables for Obama’s Probability of carrying NC.

If the election for president were held today, Obama would only receive about 44% support in North Carolina.

As you will see when you open the chart, although Obama’s numbers are lousy the Republicans are not much better.

• 56% of “independent voters” in NC disapprove of the job Pres. Obama is doing; 38% approve
• 38% of NC voters tend to favor Democrats; 40% tend to favor Republicans
• 39% of NC voters supported raising the debt limit with deep cuts (Obama’s position)
• Unlike the US as a whole, more North Carolinians support the Tea Party (42%) than oppose it (37%). Nationally, 51% of voters see Tea Party unfavorably; 31% favorably

Obama Lost Favor with Voters Immediately After Taking Office

Last June 10, 2010, I wrote a report titled, Walking on Oily Water in a Sea of Disappointments.  It was about why Obama’s “Job Approval” had plummeted to quickly.  The list is still relevant:

POST JUNE 10, 2010

Obama Disappoints: Average Weekly Job Approval Reaches All-Time Low in June

The great hope for change in Washington has been reduced to great disappointments following political disaster after political disaster.  It’s little wonder that President Obama’s job approval rating is only 44%, a 52-week low.  According to Gallup, Obama’s weekly average job approval has reached a new low as well, 46%, from a weekly average of 65% this time a year ago.[i]

• He ran as a man of great courage but has become a defensive scapegoater
• He ran as a friend of the environmentalists but authorized more offshore drilling
• He ran as a dove but has morphed into a hawk on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
• He ran as a uniter but has become a partisan wrecking ball with his legislative agenda
• He ran as a centrist but is governing as a liberal surrounded by liberals
• He ran as a man of the people but put his priority, healthcare, ahead of their priority, jobs
• He ran as a man who would close Gitmo and would not hire lobbyists … ha!
• He ran as a leader committed to fiscal responsibility but is overseeing a doubling of the national debt (projected at $19 trillion by 2015); “unsustainable” said Bernanke 6/10
• He ran against Wall Street but recapitalized their bonuses with taxpayer money
• He ran as an economic and jobs stimulator but unemployment/underemployment is still at 20%,[ii] with almost all of the new jobs in May being temporary with the Census Bureau
• He said his would be the most transparent administration in history yet he manages the news media with connivances, stonewalling and defensive double-speak

Obama would be well served to closet himself for a while at the White House and ponder Ralph Waldo Emerson’s sage caution, “What you are speaks so loudly, I cannot hear what you say.”

Obama’s potential for reelection is still within striking range, although more and more — in order to stay in the running — he has to rely on voter dissatisfaction with all parties and all elected officials … especially those in Washington D.C. associated with the nation’s debt and jobs crisis.

Our national financial position is so weak that it prompted Alan Simpson, fmr. Wyoming GOP U.S. Senator and Co-chairman of the Simpson/Bowles Debt & Deficit Commission to retort, “You can’t bring home the bacon now because the pig is dead.”

Next week Investors Political Daily will look at Gov. Perdue’s probability of a 2012 win.

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