John Davis Consulting

No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams; Updated Forecasts of Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress

Post: September 22, 2011       Vol. IV, No. 25

“What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, September 22, 2011, chiding the 48 GOP caucus members for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.

No Shortcuts to Peace, Prosperity … or Dreams

The headline above the fold in today’s News and Observer is, “Obama: no shortcut to peace.”  The quote was from President Obama’s speech yesterday to the United Nations in which he urged Israel and Palestine to settle their differences without relying on UN action.

On the economic front, he could have added, “and there is no shortcut to prosperity.”

A few years ago, I drove my daughter and her friend to New York City for a week of theater and shopping. She had dreamed of such a week for a long time and had saved over $1000.

It worked out quite well for me.  After all, for some time I had wanted to get away to work on a book I had dreamed of writing.  This was the perfect opportunity.  The girls would leave the room mid-morning and spend the entire day in the city and not come back to the hotel room except to dress for an evening performance.  I would be free to write all day the entire week.

What I did not anticipate was a near-fatal case of writers block.

Despite numerous attempts to establish momentum, I ended the first day with very little accomplished.  That was followed by a second day of struggling to be productive … although I ended the day with a glimmer of hope after a couple of hours of research at New York City’s Mid-Manhattan Public Library.

Surely the third day would be a breakthrough of productivity.  Not so.  As noontime rolled around, I was no farther along than when I started the day.  Frustrated, I decided to take a walk.

After a couple of blocks of aimless wandering, I noticed a crowd of people walking into St. Patrick’s Cathedral on 5th Avenue for the noon mass. Not having any better idea of what to do with my time, I decided to join them.  Maybe prayer and meditation would jump-start my writing.

Voila!  I found the remedy to my chronic writers block that day … in the homily.  The title of the homily was, “There are no shortcuts to your dreams.”

I went straight back to the room and went to work.  I ended up having a very productive week.

U.S. House Speaker Boehner Chastises Tea Party Republicans

We should all thank the Tea Party for forcing a nation in economic denial to see the nation-destroying consequences of unlimited sacred cow budgeting and unchecked spending and borrowing.

However, if the Tea Party does not loosen up on opportunities like a 10-to-1 spending cuts over tax increases, insisting on no new taxes, then it will be the Democrats who will be thanking the Tea Party for returning them to state and federal legislative majorities.

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said as much today when he chastised the 48 members of the GOP caucus for voting against the stopgap measure yesterday.  “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen.”

There are no shortcuts to:

• Adjusting to the global economic correction: a monumental event likely requiring a painfully interminable period of austerity;
• Economic growth or job creation: an exercise requiring cautious and deliberate investments by the private sector in expansion that eventually will begin to add jobs;
• Getting our budget under control: an exercise requiring both painful spending cuts and program consolidation/elimination and tax reform … including new revenue.

Saying no to taxes is a shortcut.

Updated Likely Winners: President, GOP Nominee, U.S. Congress

On Labor Day, September 2, 2011, I published forecasts for the likely winners of the 2012 campaigns for U.S. President, GOP Presidential Nominee, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Governor and the likely North Carolina Senate and House majorities.  Here are select updates:

U.S. President UPDATE 9/22: Obama will win a second term (without NC)

1. Obama’s mid-40s job approval (43.6% Real Clear Politics average) at the lowest point of his administration, amidst worldwide economic turmoil and high dissatisfaction and uncertainty at home, argues for a near-50% job approval next fall with any measure of sustained growth in jobs/economy.  He wins at 50%.
2. Obama will run against “obstructionist” Republicans in Congress whose job approval hovers around 15% (Congressional job approval 13.5% Real Clear Politics average)
3. Everyone in the current GOP presidential field has said “no” to a 10-to-1 spending over taxes deal and are losing credibility among most voters because their uncompromising stand.
4. GALLUP released a survey September 20 in which:

• 70% of Americans favor “increasing taxes on some corporations by eliminating certain tax deductions,” including 53% of Republicans/Leaning Republican.
• 66% favor “increasing income taxes on individuals earning at least $200,000 (families $250,000),” including 41% of Republicans/Leaning Republicans.
• Over half of Republicans/Leaning Republicans favor 4 of the 6 proposals in Obama’s American Jobs Act including 84% who support “providing tax cuts for small businesses, including incentives to hire workers,” 56% who support “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters,” and 50% who support “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”

Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, reaffirmed in a Fox News Sunday interview on July 10, 2011, that “the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term President.”

The greatest political trap that Republicans could find themselves in is for voters to conclude that their refusal to compromise on the American Jobs Act is driven by their #1 priority, to make Obama a one-term president.

GOP Presidential UPDATE 9/22: Mitt Romney likely GOP nominee

1. Rick Perry will collapse under the weight of inexperience and cowboy bravado too reminiscent of President Bush.
2. If Perry wins the nomination, most Americans will likely see him as a 3rd Bush term (Bush’s job approval was 25% in 2008), weakening his chances in a General Election.
3. Romney will win out of the current field because he will be the last one standing after the others self-destruct.  Romney cannot beat Obama without enthusiastic Republican and Tea Party support … and he has yet to generate much enthusiasm among right-wing conservatives.
4. Recent polls show 51% of Republicans would prefer someone other than the current slate.
5. NJ Governor Christ Christie can defeat Obama.  Filing/running required.

U.S. Senate UPDATE 9/22: Republicans will win the U.S. Senate majority

1. Currently 51/47 Democrat majority w/2 Independents who caucus with Democrats.
2. Big GOP Advantage:  Of 33 US Senate seats up for grabs, 21 are currently held by Democrats and 2 held by Independents who caucus with Democrats.
3. Only 10 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2012, most deemed safe.
4. GOP needs to win 4 of the 21 Democratic seats for majority (if they hold what they have).

U.S. House UPDATE 9/22: Republicans risk losing U.S. House majority

Republicans are clearly at risk of losing the majority in the US House of Representatives, as uncompromising Tea Party zealots will alienate independents as well as defeat/weaken GOP incumbents, rendering them vulnerable to moderate Democrats in swing districts.

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, chided the 48 Republicans in his caucus this morning for rejecting the stopgap government funding bill on Wednesday, causing the bill to fail.  “What they’re in essence doing is they are voting to spend more money, because that’s exactly what will happen,” Boehner told reporters today.

The uncompromising actions of the Tea Party Republicans in the U.S. House have led to fears of a government shutdown reminiscent of the one under former Speaker Newt Gingrich, an event that led to the loss of confidence in Republicans … and the loss of the majority in Congress to the Democrats.

U.S. House Republicans cannot lose more confidence in their ability to lead.  There’s none left.

– END –

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John N. Davis, Editor

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