Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

by johndavis, December 22, 2011

“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.” John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011 Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40%
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“The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.”

John Davis Political Report, December 21, 2011

Biggest Story of 2011: Tea Party Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory; Implications for 2012 Results in a 40% GOP Nation

Post: December 21, 2011 Vol. IV, No. 34

And the Wall Street Journal Agrees!

If you go back and read all 2011 John Davis Political Reports, you will find this consistent drumbeat: the best hope for President Obama’s re-election success is the Tea Party faction of the U.S. House Republican Caucus.

Yesterday’s rejection of a bipartisan Senate bill to extend the payroll-tax cut is another example of how House Republicans are making the same mistake Obama made: thinking the election results were a mandate for partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives. Wrong.

According to Gallup’s three year average, only 40.4% of Americans are Republican or Lean Republican. The same study shows only 39.8% of Americans are conservative. Where does the House GOP Caucus get the notion that those who are struggling financially care which party is responsible for putting them back to work; responsible for getting the country out of debt? Does it matter to most if it’s conservatives or moderates or liberals who come to the rescue?

The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.

House Republicans are driving independent voters away, thereby jeopardizing all Republicans.

Today’s Wall Street Journal agrees. In an editorial titled, The GOP’s Payroll Tax Fiasco, WSJ concludes, “We wonder if they [U.S. House Republicans] might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.”

The nation is only 40.4% Republican; 39.8% conservative.

The 2010 election results were a mandate to put partisan exceptionalism and fringe policy initiatives aside and focus on the national debt/deficit spending crisis and the jobs crisis.

What Part of a 4-to-1 Obama Approval vs Congress Approval is Confusing?

I have shown time and again throughout 2011 that it’s the President not the Congress who Americans trust more to solve the country’s biggest problems of the day: sovereign debt and jobs. All year, the congressional job approval numbers have hovered in the low teens, near 10%, while the President’s job approval has hovered in the low 40s.

Today, Real Clear Politics shows Congressional Job Approval at 12.5%; President Obama’s Job Approval at 46.5%. What part of a 4-to-1 Presidential Job Approval over Congressional Job Approval do Republican members of the U.S. House not get?

A new Washington Post-ABC News Poll shows Congressional Democrats getting a 27% job approval rating, with only 20% approving of the job Congressional Republicans are doing. On the other hand, President Obama gets a 49% approval rating.

Ummmmmmm, let’s see. Congressional Republicans get a 20% approval rating and President Obama gets a 49% approval rating. How is that likely to play out in 2012?

The most ominous poll number I have read all year for uncompromising fiscal conservatives like the U.S. House Republican Caucus is a Gallup survey that shows that Independents, by almost 2-to-1, believe that it’s “more important to compromise” in order to get things done (52%) than it is to “stick to beliefs,” even if little gets done (27%).

In 2012, look for the Tea Party conservatives to continue to be a disruptive force in the Republican Party. If they continue to insist on their own priorities, as Obama and his fellow Democrats did when they put health care over jobs and the national budget crisis, they will suffer the same fate in November of 2012 as Democrats did in 2010.

The Tea Party is on track to help re-elect President Obama
The Tea Party is on track to limit the likely GOP U.S. Senate majority to 1 or 2 seats
The Tea Party is on track to help Democrats pull off an upset U.S. House turnover
The Tea Party is on track to cut the GOP potential for statewide pickups in NC in half (Council of State, 1 Supreme Court and 3 Court of Appeals races).
The Tea Party is on track to keep the NC Senate and House from winning veto-proof super majorities (they will still win the majority in both chambers if districts stand)

Fortunately for likely GOP Gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory, Perdue is still on track to lose in a rematch because she is so weak that even the Tea Party can’t screw that race up! According to the latest Public Policy Polling survey, Perdue’s approval rating stands at 37% (about where its been since she took office) and she lags McCrory in the governor’s race by 10 points (50-40), about where its been since she took office.

All in all, Republicans are in for a big year in 2012 at the federal and state levels provided they can convince the Tea Party that giving up half of what they want to get half of what they want is the way progress is made in a Democracy.

– END –

Merry Christmas! Happy Hanukkah! Happy New Year!

I can’t thank you enough for reading the John Davis Political Report this year. I am all too aware that you expect me to get it right … every time. That’s what I strive to do each week.

May God Bless You and Your Family!!!

John N. Davis, Editor