John Davis Consulting

UPDATE: NC Political History in the Making: A Republican Governor, Republican Senate, Republican House of Representatives

Update: Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America

Update: National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup

Update: CNN on Obama’s North Carolina Math Problem

Post: Monday, May 21, 2012       Vol. V, No. 17      2:13 pm

Gov. Perdue’s approval rating worst in America

Last Monday, May 14, 2012, I wrote that after decades of exemplary leadership, today’s Democratic Party is in shambles; that Governor Perdue is so weak that she can’t help herself or any other Democrat win another term; she can’t stop Republicans from overriding her vetoes; and she can’t get her job approval numbers out of the mid-30s.

On May 17, Public Policy Polling released the results of a new North Carolina survey showing Perdue’s disapproval rating the highest ever, with 57% of voters disapproving of the job she is doing to only 31% who approve.

Quoting PPP, a Democratic polling firm, “… that 57% disapproval is the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling.”

• Among Democrats, Perdue has 50% approval; 34% disapproval.
• Among Republicans, Perdue has a 7% approval; 87% disapproval.
• Among Independents, Perdue has a 27% approval; 64% disapproval.

It’s no wonder that many writers are beginning to report that national Democrats are having buyers’ remorse over the selection of North Carolina for their convention.  A bit more vetting by the DNC and they would have seen that under Perdue’s leadership the state party has collapsed.

National Journal sees NC as #1 state for GOP governor pickup

On Friday, May 18, 2012, National Journal, one of the nation’s oldest and most respected non-partisan political research organizations, unveiled the first installment of their Hotline’s monthly gubernatorial rankings, listing the governorships most likely to flip partisan control this fall.  North Carolina is #1 on the list of the top ten states likely to see a partisan change in the governor’s mansion.  “We see North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s seat as more likely to wind up in Republican hands,” writes National Journal.

National Journal Forecasts McCrory Win: “It has been more than 20 years since a Republican won the governorship, but former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is looking like a heavy favorite against Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton,” concludes National Journal.

CNN: Obama’s North Carolina math problem

CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby wrote a story on Friday, May 18, 2012, titled Obama’s North Carolina math problem, in which he concluded that the biggest challenge in North Carolina this year for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats can be boiled down to math.

Hamby points out what I have concluded for years:  “Everything that could have gone right for Obama in 2008 did go right, and yet he still only won North Carolina by just 14,177 votes — a tiny sliver of the 4.2 million cast statewide.”

Hamby quoted a “senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity” as saying that “white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.”

“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”

CNN news anchor Wolf Blitzer interviewed James Carville, President Clinton’s campaign manager, about the story, Obama’s North Carolina math problem.  Carville agreed with Blitzer’s statement that the numbers do not look good.

With PPP stating that Gov. Perdue’s approval is now the worst in America, with the National Journal reporting that NC is the #1 state for a GOP governor pickup, and with CNN concluding that Obama has a math problem if he thinks he can carry North Carolina again, I repeat last weeks conclusion: Strong Republican leadership and unity and a time of weak Democratic leadership and disunity are what lead me to forecast a historic first North Carolina Republican Governor, Republican Senate, and a Republican House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.