John Davis Consulting

North Carolina Governor’s Race is McCrory’s to Lose; Democrats are Not Structurally Capable of Rescuing Dalton

Pat McCrory, GOP nominee for governor, has $4.4 million cash.  Walter Dalton, Democratic nominee, has $714,000 cash.  Game over. John Davis Political Report, July 11, 2012

Post: Wednesday, July 11, 2012       Vol. V, No. 22      7:13 pm

Ladies and gentlemen, the Governor of the Great State of North Carolina and Mrs. McCrory

If the elections were held today, the structural deficiencies of the North Carolina Democratic Party are so profound that they would be incapable of stopping a Republican takeover of all three branches of North Carolina state government.  For the first time in the lifetime of any North Carolinian, if the elections were held today, voters would likely elect a Republican Governor, Republican majorities to the Council of State, state Senate, state House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and the Court of Appeals.

In 2012, for the first time since the 1800s, Republicans will be fighting from a position of partisan strength afforded by power, money, maps, message, momentum, strong leadership and candidates, and most importantly, party unity.

Conversely, for the first time since the 1800s, Democrats will be fighting from a position of partisan weakness resulting from a loss of political power, loss of the political fund raising advantage, loss of a majority of legislative and congressional districts, loss of unity, loss of strong, ideologically flexible political leaders, and the loss of a united base.

Case in point: The Governor’s Race. Today, July 11, polling and campaign fundraising results were announced that put the governor’s race solidly in the “McCrory’s to lose” category.

• July 11 report filed by Walter Dalton with the NC State Board of Elections shows that he has only $714,000 as of July 1, compared to McCrory’s $4.4 million.
• July 11 poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat polling firm, shows GOP nominee Pat McCrory ahead of Democrat nominee Walter Dalton by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
• McCrory leads among Independent voters by 47% to 25%.
• McCrory has the support of 79% of Republicans; only 63% of Democrats support Dalton.

McCrory’s Strength as Candidate Seen in during Historic Democrat-friendly Year

In 2008, Perdue defeated McCrory ONLY because of a structurally sound Democratic Party, a 2-to-1 spending advantage and the commitment made by the Obama campaign in North Carolina.

The Obama campaign spent millions on a statewide organization operating out of 47 headquarters.  A paid staff of 400 coordinated the work of 10,000 volunteers.  The Obama ground game broke all records for new registered voters and early voting turnout.  They spent $1.7 million just on straight ticket voter education.

However, despite outspending McCrory $14.9 million to his $6.7 million during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic voter registration and turnout year for Democrats, Perdue barely won in what was the closest governor’s race in America.

That is not just a sign of how weak Beverly Perdue was in 2008, it is a sign of how strong Pat McCrory was in 2008. Now, it is Pat McCrory with the spending advantage and a structurally sound Republican Party backing him up.  McCrory has $4.4 million cash as of July 1, 2012.  Dalton has $714,000.  Game over in the governor’s race.

Furthermore, the North Carolina Democratic Party is not structurally capable of stopping a Republican stampede in 2012 from the top of the ballot down.  I will develop the topic of structural deficiencies in the next report.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Governor’s race is McCrory’s to lose, and Democrats are not structurally capable of rescuing Dalton.