John Davis Consulting

Is the NC Democratic Party Better Off than Four Years Ago? That’s why Obama can’t carry the state in 2012.

The North Carolina Democratic Party, the storied, national-model political war machine of 2008, is too deficient structurally to win 2012 battles.

 Tuesday, September 4, 2012       Vol. V, No. 27      5:13 pm

First Generation of Leaders to Lose Legislature to Republicans Since 1898

 The North Carolina Democratic Party, a storied national model political war machine with a 112-year winning streak in political dominance; a party that distinguishes itself, along with Oregon and Washington, as one of only three states with no Republican governor in 20 years, finds its political war machine unable to fend off an insurgent state GOP in 2012.

Collapsed.  No power.  No money.  No momentum.  No maps.  Lost it all in 2010.  Lost the state Senate.  Lost the state House of Representatives.  First time since 1898.

No political warfare generals.  The collapse of the strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage of the state Democratic Party since 2008, and the concurrent building of a strong leadership infrastructure and financial advantage by the state Republican Party, argue for a difficult year for Democrats in North Carolina in 2012.  Including President Obama.

Governor Beverly Perdue, a lame duck whose disapproval rating per Public Policy Polling was “the worst any Governor in the country has in our most recent polling,” chose wisely not to seek a second term.  Dramatic shift in political fortunes since 2008.  Governor Perdue had eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898.  A lame duck.

In 2008, Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue barely won the closest governor’s race in America despite outspending her GOP opponent, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, by 2-to1: $14.9 million to $6.7 million.

And, she barely won during a terrible turnout year for Republicans and an Obama-driven historic turnout year for Democrats.  McCrory would have won in 2008 but for Barack Obama’s investment in North Carolina and a structurally deficient North Carolina GOP.

In July, 2012, Pat McCrory, the GOP nominee for governor, reported $4.4 million cash on hand.  Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee for governor, reported $714,000 cash on hand.  McCrory has already reserved over $6 million in TV time for the fall.  Dalton: $2.6 million.

The Republican Governor’s Association has committed an additional $5.2 million.

September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: McCrory 46.6%; Dalton 39%.

The North Carolina Democratic Party is not better off than it was four years ago when Barack Obama won by 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.

That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.

 Structural Deficiencies Since 2008 Seen in Mid-Year Fundraising Reports

 There is no greater indicator of structural deficiencies than fundraising results.  According to The Associated Press, “The North Carolina Democratic Party, which has staggered through months of infighting in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at party headquarters, is well behind in the race for money with Republicans heading into the fall election.”

The AP story on the mid-year reports filed with the State Board of Election included:

NC Democratic Party has raised “a little less than $185,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$188,000 in cash on hand.”

• NC Republican Party has raised “nearly $772,000” during the second quarter of 2012, and had “$965,500 in cash.”
• When it comes to individual contributors, “The reports show Republicans raked in $212,000, while Democrats brought in a meager $2,700, the reports said.”

 Sen. Basnight reported $1,086,815 cash in 2008; Sen. Nesbitt reported $45,000 cash in 2012

 Four years ago, when the July report was filed with the State Board of Elections, then-Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight, D-Dare, reported $1,086,815 cash on hand.  This July, NC Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, D-Buncombe, reported $45,000 cash on hand.

Money flows to those with power.  Democrats no longer have power.  No power, no money.  No money, no resources to do political battle.  That’s a game changing structural deficiency.

Conversely, NC Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, reported $770,000 cash on hand in the July campaign finance reports.  Four years ago, then-Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger reported only $92,404 cash on hand.

NC House Speaker Thom Tillis, R-Mecklenburg, reported raising $945,942 this election cycle, with $491,877 cash on hand after a $200,000 contribution to the state party.  Four years ago, then-GOP House Minority Leader Paul Stam, R-Wake, reported a meager $43,312 cash on hand.

 North Carolina No Longer a Presidential Swing State; Obama Likely to Pull Out

 Forecast: North Carolina will soon be taken off most “Swing States” lists and relabeled “Leaning Romney.” Obama will redirect NC resources to greener pastures.

 The big mistake the Obama camp made this year in investing in North Carolina was in thinking that Obama carried the state in 2008 because he was a Democrat or because he was progressive or because he was charismatic.  Fact:  Obama was the only other option on the ballot at a time when voters had lost trust in the Republican leaders and their ideas.

Obama won by 14,179 votes out of 4,310,623 cast in 2008.

• Obama won because President Bush had a job approval of 25%.
• Obama won because McCain was feared as a third Bush term.
• Obama won because the GOP took the state for granted.
• Obama won because he had the surprise factor (no one saw it coming).
• Obama won because he beat the GOP with registration and early voting turnout.

Public opinion research released this week shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina 47% to 43% in a new Elon University/News & Observer poll, and 46% to 43% in a new High Point University/Fox 8 poll.

September 4, 2012 Real Clear Politics Polling Average: Romney 47.3%; Obama 45.3%.

 Greatest Structural Deficiency: Waning Democratic Enthusiasm; 38 Point Shift

According to a Gallup poll released July 25, only 39% of Democrats are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to 51% of Republicans.  That’s a 12-point advantage for the Republicans.  There’s more.

At the same time in the summer of 2008, 61% of Democrats were “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” compared to only 35% for Republicans.  That’s a 26-point advantage for the Democrats.

For emphasis: Democrats have not only lost their 26-point advantage, Republicans have gained a 12-point advantage, for a net gain of 38 points for Republicans since the summer of 2008.

Least enthusiastic: young unemployed/underemployed voters.  Obama volunteers.

The North Carolina Democratic Party was already in freefall without the help of President Obama.  With the help of Obama in 2010, Democrats suffered the greatest losses since 1896.

Is the North Carolina Democratic Party better off than it was four years ago?

That’s why President Obama cannot carry the state in 2012.

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