John Davis Consulting

Romney’s Debate Win Closes the Deal with Reluctant Republicans and the 5-point Gap with Obama

“Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.”     Gallup, October 8, 2012

 October 8: A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 52% to 46% among voters “extremely likely to vote.”

 Monday, October 8, 2012       Vol. V, No. 32           3:13 pm

 An ideological rout in front of 67 million people; a record 52-point win

Here is what conservative Republican presidential holdouts witnessed last Wednesday night during the first debate in Denver:  1. Mitt Romney; 2. overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama; 3. in an ideological argument; 4. in front of 67 million people.

For emphasis:  Mitt Romney overwhelmingly defeated liberal President Barack Obama in an ideological argument in front of 67 million people.  If you are a conservative Republican, it doesn’t get much better than that.

It was a rout; an ideological rout.  Gallup says 72% of those who watched the debate thought Romney did the better job; 10% said Obama did the better job.  More Democrats thought Romney won (49%) than thought Obama won (39%).  Gallup says a 52-point win is a record.

But get this:  97% of all Republicans said Romney did the better job in the debate; 2% Obama.  I could hear the roar of the right all across the land.  Mitt’s in.  He’s now one of them.

The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm.  Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative Republican holdouts.

 NC GOP ground game claims 500,000 voter contacts last week alone

 Unity and enthusiasm fuel political momentum.  Momentum means money, volunteers, a greater willingness to display support and higher turnout of voters.  Did Romney’s debate win in Denver spark GOP unity and enthusiasm in North Carolina?

Today’s News & Observer’s Under the Dome carried a story titled, NC GOP says it contacted 200,000 voters on Saturday, in which the North Carolina Republican Party claims that “nearly 3,000 volunteers made 110,000 calls and knocked on more than 90,000 doors” as a part of it’s “Tarheel Turnout” Saturday this past weekend.  They also claim that their ground game organization made 500,000 voter contacts last week alone.

Granted, those numbers are impressive.  However, the most politically significant note in the story was the claim that last week’s presidential debate sparked a “spike in volunteers.”

Obama would not have carried North Carolina in 2008, and Beverly Perdue would not have been elected governor, had it not been for their record-setting voter registration and turnout machine.  Take away the ground game advantage and Democrats are in for a long night in November.

The debate closed the deal with reluctant Republicans, sparked GOP unity and enthusiasm, and closed the 5-point gap with Obama.

 Romney leads among “extremely likely to vote” by 52% to 46%

 According to Gallup, President Obama led Mitt Romney by 5 points prior to the debate (Pre-debate Sept 30 – Oct 2 Obama 50% to Romney’s 45%).  Looking only at the three days immediately after the debate, Obama has 47%; Romney 47%.  From a 5-point lead to a tie.

Today’s Real Clear Politics polling average for the time period September 26 – October 7 shows Obama at 48.3% and Romney at 47.2%.

MOST INTERESTING POLL OF THE DAY:  A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally by only 1 point, a statistical tie.  However, if you look at voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads by 52% to 46%.

The most telling result of the poll is that only 73% of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote.  Romney supporters?  86% say they are “extremely likely to vote.”

For emphasis: among voters extremely likely to vote, Romney leads Obama by 52% to 46%.  Key paragraph in the poll report:

The percentages among key Democratic constituencies who say they are extremely likely to vote should cause concern in Chicago: While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.

The first presidential debate at the University of Denver eliminated two major stumbling blocks Romney faced with the Republican base: unity and enthusiasm.  Now, thanks to the rout, the ideological rout, Romney has endeared himself to conservative holdouts and is leading in the most important category of polling in a virtually tied race: enthusiasm.

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