John Davis Consulting

It’s All Over for Obama in North Carolina as Romney Surges Ahead.  Republicans on track to dominate Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches

Question from CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Monday, October 22, to Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action: “Has he [Obama] given up on North Carolina?”  Paul Begala: “Yes.”

Tuesday, October 23, 2012       Vol. V, No. 35           11:13 am

Paul Begala, senior Democratic political consultant to pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action, the same Paul Begala who was Chief Strategist for 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, dropped a political bombshell yesterday when he told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that President Obama was giving up on North Carolina.

“Paul, one quick question to you,” said Wolf Blitzer during a live CNN interview, “Has he given up on North Carolina?” Begala replied, “Yes.” Watch the interview here.

Now comes the news that Begala is walking back his comment about Obama giving up on North Carolina. Walk back all you want Paul, Obama cannot carry North Carolina in 2012.

All hopes for a political comeback for North Carolina Democrats this year were already in doubt. No power. No money. No momentum. No maps. Lost it all in 2010 thanks to President Obama.

Today, Real Clear Politics has Mitt Romney leading President Obama in North Carolina by 50% to 45%. Romney has led in all North Carolina polls conducted in October. It’s all over.

This morning’s news that North Carolina is among the states for a final Obama TV ad blitz is panning for fool’s gold. You can’t win here with a weak, leaderless, underfunded, unenthusiastic state Democratic Party, especially against a united, well-led, well-funded and enthusiastic Republican Party.

North Carolina Democrats have no political warfare generals; Perdue “the worst job approval of any Governor in the country” according to Public Policy Polling, a Democratic poll firm.  Eleven (11) vetoes overridden by the first GOP General Assembly since 1898.  A lame duck.

All of the political advantages enjoyed by North Carolina Democrats in 2008 have by seized by North Carolina Republicans, especially money, unity and enthusiasm among volunteers.

Money flows to those with power. Democrats no longer have power. No power, no money. No money, no resources to do political battle. That’s the key game-changing structural deficiency for the state Democrats. The other is the loss of enthusiasm for Obama.

 Enthusiasm for Obama is Gone; Growing in GOP Ranks

On April 19, 2012, in the John Davis Political Report, Vol. V, No. 14, I wrote, “President Obama cannot win a second term without the army of enthusiastic young campaign volunteers responsible for his first victory, and thus far they are nowhere to be found. They have not abandoned the cause; they have abandoned the leader of the cause.”

Four years ago you could not have walked on any campus in North Carolina without being accosted by an enthusiastic Obama volunteer. Today, they are nowhere to be found. Too many unemployed or working somewhere part time; forced to live with their parents after college.

In 2008, Obama carried the state by only 14,177 votes out of 4.3 million cast despite a dominant state Democratic Party and a year-long commitment of a full compliment of political resources; 47 headquarters staffed by 400 paid field organizers who coordinated the get-out-the-vote work of 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers. Obama never had a chance in 2012 without a strong state Democratic Party … and those 10,000 enthusiastic volunteers.

With Romney surging ahead of Obama in North Carolina, and the state GOP enjoying the advantage of the thousands of enthusiastic volunteers, Republicans are on track to dominate the elections in all three branches of state government, executive, legislative and judicial.

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