John Davis Consulting

North Carolina Senate: 33 Republicans; 17 Democrats.  Winning formula: Maps + Money = Majority

Congratulations to all of the winners!  And, to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes. 

 Democrats.  Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.

We know exactly what you are feeling right now.  It hurts.  Really bad.

Don’t quit.  This state needs good people like you.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012       Vol. V, No. 40           11:13 am

UPDATE with RUNOFF RESULTS: December 6, 2012       Vol. V, No. 40           2:13 pm

Maps + Money = Majority

Two years ago, November 2, 2010, North Carolina Republicans won majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly for the first time since 1898.

They had exclusive legislative power.  Power meant money.

One year ago, on July 27, 2011, legislative district maps, drawn by Republicans for the first time in over a hundred years, were enacted into law by the North Carolina General Assembly.

Republicans lowered themselves to the standards for fairness set by Democrats over the decades and drew themselves a big advantage in the number of legislative districts likely to elect GOP candidates.

Yesterday, November 6, 2012, legislative election results were predictable.  Maps + Money = Majority.

Maps mean you have a structural advantage; more friendly districts.  Money means you can hire the best political consultants and field organizers and provide your candidates with the resources they need to gain an advantage and win their campaigns.

NC Senate Races: Forecast v/s Results

In the new 50-member state Senate, Republicans will have 33 seats to 17 for Democrats.  The John Davis Political Report Forecast was 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 toss-up race.

• Republicans started with 11 candidates with no opposition
• Republicans won 17 of the 18 races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• Republicans won the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored”
• Republicans won the 2 races in which the Democrat was projected as “Favored”
• Republicans won the only “Toss up” race

• Democrats started with 7 candidates with no opposition
• Democrats won all 9 of the races in which they were projected as “Likely Winners”
• Democrats won 0 of the 2 races in which they were projected as “Favored.”

Click here to see the UPDATED list of all 50 Senate races with winners v/s forecasts.  (The new North Carolina House is now 77 Republicans and 43 Democrats.  Details will follow.)

Congratulations to all of the winners!

And to those of you who did not win, please know that everyone who has chosen politics as their life’s passion has been in your shoes.  Democrats.  Republicans. Libertarians. Unaffiliated Independents. Everyone.

We all know exactly what you are feeling right now.  It hurts.  Really bad.

Don’t quit.  This state needs good people like you.

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