Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
“Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity.” John Davis Political Report, 1/17/2013
Thursday, January 17, 2013 Vol. VI, No. 3 10:13 pm
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s true nationally and here in North Carolina. They are more moderate than conservative, more pro-government than anti-government, more independent than partisan, more diverse and more socially tolerant.
There are 28 member mayors of the North Carolina Metropolitan Mayors Coalition, representing the municipalities with populations over 30,000. Only 7 of the 28 are Republicans.
Metropolitan voters are the largest and fastest growing group in North Carolina, which makes them an ever increasing threat to Republican longevity; and, the best hope for resurgent Democrats.
Here are a few compelling North Carolina voter registration/voter turnout facts:
- Wake/Mecklenburg counties cast 934,265 votes last fall, same as the lowest 61 counties
- Half of President Obama’s total votes last fall came from only 8 of 100 counties
- Since 1993, half of North Carolina’s 3 million new voters registered in 10 counties
Last week, I began what will be a series of reports on How the North Carolina Republican Party Can Maintain Political Power for 114 Years (like the Democrats). The first report dealt with Rule #1: Always remember that you are vulnerable; and Rule #2: Criminal indictments scare off contributors.
Today, I am writing about Rule #3: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
Big Counties Dominate N.C. Politics; Big States Dominate U.S.
It is startling to think that only 5 states of 50 were needed for President Obama to cross the halfway mark to the 270 electoral votes needed for a second term. California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan gave Obama 140 votes.
It is even more startling to think that only 8 North Carolina counties out of 100 were needed for half of President Obama’s total votes in the 2012 General Election. Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe, and Orange counties gave President Obama 1,080,276 votes of his 2,156,025 North Carolina General Election total.
Those same eight counties gave GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 722,772 votes; 357,504 fewer votes than they gave President Obama.
According to national General Election exit polling analysis conducted by the New York Times:
- Obama defeated Romney by 40 points in all U.S. “Big cities,” 69% to 29%
- Obama defeated Romney by 18 points in all U.S. “Mid-sized cities,” 58% to 40%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 21 points in our “Big cities,” 60% to 39%
- In NC, Obama defeated Romney by 19 points in our “Mid-sized cities,” 59% to 40%
Granted, Romney won the U.S. “Small cities” by 14 points and “Suburbs” by 2 points (NC “Small cities” by 15 points and “Suburbs” by 9 points) and carried reliably Republican rural areas throughout the state and nation. But the fact remains that the big numbers are in the metropolitan areas.
- In November 2012, 4,501,128 votes were cast in NC out of 6,641,585 registered (68%)
- Half of those 4,501,128 votes were cast in 13 counties; the other half in 87 counties
- Wake/Mecklenburg cast 934,265 votes in 2012, the same as the lowest 61 counties
Metropolitan voters are the least likely to vote Republican. It’s a fact nationally and here in North Carolina. That’s why Rule #3 is so critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
McCrory Just the Man to Help the GOP with Rule #3
Governor Pat McCrory, the state’s first Republican chief executive in 20 years, was not born in North Carolina. Like most of today’s metropolitan voters, the McCrory’s moved here from another state (Ohio) because of economic opportunity.
Since 1993, North Carolina’s registered voters have grown from about 3.5 million to a little over 6.5 million, for a net growth of 3.06 million. Two-thirds of those voters did not come from the South.
Half of the new voters since 1993 registered in 10 counties: Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Union, New Hanover, Buncombe and Johnston.
Here is a startling political reality check: Wake and Mecklenburg counties alone had a combined net growth of 768,224 voters in the last 20 years, the same as the bottom 73 counties.
Pat McCrory served seven terms as mayor of Charlotte, our largest city and one of the most dynamic in the country. How is it possible that a Republican could be so successful in a big city like Charlotte when most big cities prefer Democrats?
McCrory was a successful big city mayor because he knew that North Carolinians who choose to live in cities demand a unique set of quality of life services: city parks and aquatic centers; major league sports arenas and stadiums; greenways and efficient public transportation; children’s museums and a public investment in the arts.
“We’re at the intersection of government and Main Street,” said Governor McCrory in his inaugural address on Saturday, January 12, 2013. What makes him just the right man to help North Carolina Republicans with Rule #3 is that he knows that “main street” for most North Carolinians runs through a metropolitan city.
Republicans have only 31% of the registered voters in North Carolina today. You need 50% to win statewide races. That’s why the state Republican leaders must position themselves to recruit from metropolitan voters.
Rule #3 is critical to the longevity of North Carolina Republicans: Keep your voters close, and your metropolitan voters closer.
– END –
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John N. Davis, Editor
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