If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble

by johndavis, July 2, 2014

If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat,
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If 2014 is a Referendum on the White House, then Sen. Hagan is in Right Much Trouble

UPDATE July 2, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 16 8:13 am

If you research the political adage, Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, you will discover that Democrats agree UNLESS the president is a Democrat, and Republicans agree UNLESS the president is a Republican. Unfortunately for all partisans, history agrees that midterm elections are a referendum on the White House no matter the party of the occupant.

Since 1910, during President Taft’s administration, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections. There have been only two exceptions; only one exception if you look at second term, midterm elections like 2014. Exception: Bill Clinton in 1998 (Democrats won 5 seats in House; 0 Senate).

That’s it. One exception since 1910.

In 2006, during Republican President George W. Bush’s second-term, midterm elections, the GOP lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate. That year U.S. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said, “The upcoming midterm elections are a referendum on the policies of Bush.”

Now that a Democrat is in the White House during a second-term, midterm election year, you hear Democratic leaders like DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz say on NBC’s Meet the Press, “No, absolutely not,” the November midterm elections are not a referendum on the Obama Administration. Apparently, Schultz has forgotten 2010, President Obama’s first-term, midterm election year during which Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate.

Midterm elections are a referendum on the White House. Period. As for now, there is an increasing lack of faith in this White House. Especially among the pivotal independent voters.

NPR Says Independent voters are breaking Republican in 2014

A new NPR (National Public Radio) poll released June 19, 2014, shows Pres. Obama’s Job Approval at only 38% among likely voters in the 12 states with competitive Senate races (which includes North Carolina). Perhaps more indicative of who is likely to have a political advantage this Fall are the survey responses by Independent voters that relate to whom voters trust by issue:

On the Economy, 48% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 28% trust Democrats
On Healthcare, 44% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 35% trust Democrats
On the Future of the Middle Class, Independent voters give both parties 38%
On Foreign Policy, 52% of Independent voters trust Republicans; 26% trust Democrats

The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team that included Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayers of Resurgent Republic.

Not only did Republicans fair better than Democrats among Independent voters, Republicans did better than Democrats on the generic ballot question, “If the election for U.S. Senate in your state were held today, would you vote for [Name], the Republican candidate, or [Name], the Democratic candidate?”

46% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate; 43% of all voters surveyed said they plan to vote Democratic in their state’s U.S. Senate race
Among Independent voters, 46% plan to vote Republican for U.S. Senate this Fall to only 38% who plan to vote Democratic

New York Times/CBS News poll documents loss of faith in Obama

On Monday, June 23, a New York Times/CBS News poll showed that only 40% of Americans Approve of the job President Obama is doing; 54% Disapprove. As if that was not bad enough, the poll said the results document, “… an increasing lack of faith in the president and his leadership.”

If President Obama’s job approval remains in the low to mid 40s this Fall, he will be a drag on all Democrats running for the U.S. Senate, including Kay Hagan. Here are the latest numbers:

Per Real Clear Politics: President Obama’s average Job Approval is a dismal 41.6%, with 54% Disapproving, for a net negative -12.4%
RCP Obama’s Approval on the economy: a net negative -16.3%, with only 39.6% of Americans approving; 55.9% disapproving
NY Times/CBS News poll (released 6/23) shows 58% of Americans Disapprove of the way President Obama is handling foreign policy
NY Times/CBS News poll shows 40% Job Approval; 54% Disapproval
WSJ/NBC News poll (released 6/18) has Obama’s approval of his handling foreign policy a new low of 37%
WSJ/NBC News poll shows Hispanics who view Pres. Obama favorably and approve of the job he is doing dropped from 67% in January 2013 to 44%
WSJ/NBC News poll 54% of Americans said they no longer feel the president “is able to lead the country and get the job done,” while 42% said he can
Quinnipiac poll (released 7/2) shows a plurality of registered voters in U.S. believe that Obama is the “worst president” since WWII
George W. Bush was second worst, followed by Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter
Reagan was “best president” since WWII, followed by Clinton and Kennedy
45% said U.S. would be “better off if Romney won;” 38% said better off w/Obama
54% say the Obama administration is “not competent” at running the government

Too Many Problems for Obama’s Job Approval to Recover by Fall

A growing list of scandals, as well as ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges, suggest that Obama’s Job Approval will not likely recover enough by Oct/Nov for him to be a positive force for Democrats. Current problems driving down the President’s Job Approval include:

IRS targeting “Tea Party” and other conservative PACs
IRS lost email files; Lois Lerner and 5 others
Veterans Admin Scandal (Vets dying while waiting for care)
Questions about Obama’s competence (including Democrats and media)
Governance by Executive Order
Prisoner swap (5 Guantanamo Taliban prisoners for Sgt. Bergdahl)
Iraq disintegrating (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)
Syria and the “red line” (chemical weapons) blunder
Afghanistan
Ukraine (Russian invasion)
Benghazi terrorist attack (deaths of four U.S. diplomats, including the Ambassador)
NSA scandal (data-gathering of internet communications and phone calls)
Edward Snowden leaks of classified NSA documents
DOJ subpoena of AP reports’ phone records from Verizon
Debt/Unsustainable deficit spending; unsustainable entitlements
Unemployed workers; Food Stamps; Mortgages
ObamaCare (Affordable Care Act) chronic negatives

If 2014 races are a referendum on President Obama, Democrats like North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan, a Guilford County Democrat, will lose to challengers like Thom Tillis, Republican Speaker of the House from Mecklenburg County in battleground states around the nation. Add the GOP’s unity and high enthusiasm for voting this Fall, and you can see the makings of a good year for Republicans.

Like it or not, the fact is that since 1910, the party in the White House has lost an average 30 seats in the U.S. House and 4 seats in the U.S. Senate during midterm elections.