NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters

by johndavis, August 28, 2014

NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014 There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008,
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NC GOP Winning Battle for New Voters; Favored this Fall over Democrats who are Losing Voters

August 28, 2014 Vol. VII, No. 21 9:13 am

NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014

There has been a dramatic loss of political momentum among North Carolina Democrats since 2008, the election year when historic voter registration and turnout accomplishments led to Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan’s win over Elizabeth Dole for a seat in the U.S. Senate.

From January 1, 2008 through August 30, 2008, North Carolina Democrats registered a net gain of 171,955 new voters. This year, from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014, Democrats have suffered a net loss of 4,122 voters.

In 2008, Democrats had all of the power in North Carolina; the Governor, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tem of the Senate. Today, all of those positions are filled by Republicans. Today, the North Carolina Democratic Party has been abandoned by most of its financial backers from the past. Party leaders are in disarray, struggling to regain their footing.

There is so little respect for the North Carolina Democratic Party that the Wake County Democratic Party Federal Campaign Committee has managed the $1,631,025 statewide turnout operation, with most of the money from the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Kay Hagan’s political fortunes are certain to be impacted negatively by the loss of standing and resources of the North Carolina Democratic Party. The loss of momentum and enthusiasm this year when compared to 2008 is undeniably devastating.

Unless they can regain their 2008 momentum, Thom Tillis will defeat Kay Hagan this fall.

NC Democrats: Net Gain in 2008 of 171,955 Voters; Net Loss in 2014

As of August 23, 2014, registered voters in North Carolina totaled 6,557,855. Since January 1, 2014, there has been a net increase of 72,999 new voters, most of whom registered Unaffiliated. Democrats continue to lose market share among voters in North Carolina, suffering a net loss of 4,122 voters since January. Republicans have enjoyed a modest gain of 13,095 voters.

Here are the numbers from the State Board of Elections. They reflect the changes in total registered voters from January 1, 2014 through August 23, 2014:

January 1, 2014, Democratic registrations totaled 2,760,130 (42.6%)
August 23, 2014, Democrat registrations totaled 2,756,008, for a net loss of 4,122
January 1, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 1,991,662 (30.7%)
August 23, 2014, Republican registrations totaled 2,004,757, for a net gain of 13,095
January 1, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,710,409 (26.4%)
August 23, 2014, Unaffiliated registrations totaled 1,772,562, for a net gain of 62,153

North Carolina Democrats Barely Beat the GOP in Obama’s Top Counties

The counties where you would expect Democrats to make significant registration gains are the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total statewide vote in North Carolina in 2012: Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Durham, Forsyth, Cumberland, Buncombe and Orange.

Democrats gained 5,654 new voters in the eight urban counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
Republicans gained 4,075 new votes in those same eight urban counties
Democrats have registered only 1,579 more new voters than Republicans in the eight counties that gave Pres. Obama half of his total North Carolina vote in 2012
There are 24,506 new Unaffiliated voters in those same eight counties

You would think that if Wake County is the epicenter of the statewide ground game for Democrats, they would be leading Republicans in new registered voters. Not true.

Wake County Democrats have added only 1,270 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 260,512 voters as of August 23
Wake County Republicans have added 1,578 to their January 1 total, bringing them to 187,653 voters as of August 23
There are 208,518 Unaffiliated voters in Wake County, a gain of 7,162 since January 1

North Carolina Democrats have a Net Loss of Voters in 79 Counties

There is little good news for Democrats in the voter registration statistics since January 1, 2014, but none more devastating than net loss of voters in 79 of 100 counties.

Democrats have a net loss in total votes in 79 of 100 counties
Republicans have a net loss in total votes in 25 of 100 counties
Democrats have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in only 9 counties
Republicans have a net gain of greater than 100 new voters in 40 counties
Democrats have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in only 3 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham)
Republicans have a net gain of greater than 500 new voters in 7 counties (Mecklenburg, Wake, Union, Brunswick, Iredell, Johnston and Onslow)

North Carolina Unaffiliated Voters have a Net Gain in all 100 Counties

The #1 key to Republican political longevity in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters. The #1 key to Democratic political recovery in North Carolina is their ability to craft their brand to appeal to Unaffiliated voters.

Unaffiliated voters now total 1,772,562 in North Carolina, 27% of total registrations
Unaffiliated voters have enjoyed a net gain since January in all 100 counties
While Democrats show a net loss since January and Republicans a modest gain of 13,095 voters, Unaffiliated registrations show a net gain of 62,153
While Democrats have grown by more than 100 voters in 9 counties and Republicans in 40 counties, Unaffiliated voters have grown by over 100 voters in 84 counties

Gallup Says Democrats have Lost 10-Point Party Advantage Since 2008

More good news for North Carolina Republicans was reported in yesterday’s Gallup study that showed state Democrats have lost the 10 percentage point advantage they enjoyed over Republicans in 2008 (49% t0 39%), the year Kay Hagan won her U.S. Senate seat.

On the turnout front, Gallup also reported yesterday that “Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.”

As I pointed out in yesterday’s report, the best hope for U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and all North Carolina Democrats 2014 is to pull off a surprise surge in turnout during the Early Voting period of October 23 – November 1 focused primarily on urban voters.

As of today, all indicators, especially voter registration results year-to-date, argue that North Carolina Democrats are not structurally capable of beating Republicans in turnout this fall in statewide campaigns. If there is hope for Democrats in 2014, it is the countywide elections in urban counties.

At the Labor Day starting gate, Thom Tillis is still on track to defeat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race, the General Assembly will remain solidly in the hands of the Republicans, and all Republican candidates running for state government positions are favored in the close elections.

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