John Davis Consulting

Intimidation by U.S. Senate Democratic Leaders Weakened by Pundits Predicting GOP Majority

September 10, 2014        Vol. VII, No. 23         7:13 am

Nothing chills political fundraising more than the intimidating word from the majority party leadership that anyone who supports a certain candidate can forget the majority party’s support when they need help with their legislation.

You can rest assured that Democrat U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has put the word out to the political investor crowd that anyone backing North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis against North Carolina Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race can forget his support.

However, with most of the major national pundits saying that the next U.S. Senate Majority Leader is more likely to be a Republican, Sen. Harry Reid’s intimidation is greatly weakened.

Further, you can count on likely Republican U.S. Senate leaders to put the word out that in 2015, the GOP majority leadership will remember only those who supported Thom Tillis in 2014.

Here is what the leading pundits are saying:

NATE SILVER: FiveThirtyEight 9/9 forecast model gives Republicans a 62.2% odds of winning the U.S. Senate majority.

NY TIMES UPSHOT: GOP has 59% odds of winning U.S. Senate majority (9/9/2014)

STU ROTHENBERG: “I am now [9/9] expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.” “But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.”

Hagan-Tillis U.S Senate: a 26-point Gender Gap

On November 4, 2008, CNN Exit Polls showed Kay Hagan winning women 55% to 41% (+14), and Elizabeth Dole winning among men 50% to 47% (+3), creating a 17-point gender gap. The latest public opinion polls show Hagan with a +12 points among women, down a bit from 2008; Thom Tillis is up among men by +14 points, 11% higher than Dole’s vote among male voters.

Polls continue to show North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race neck and neck.

• Real Clear Politics’ running average of all polls: Tillis 43.3%; Hagan 42.5%
• New York Times/CBS News tracking poll from August 18 to September 2 shows Tillis with a slight lead: 41% to 39%
• Hagan beats Tillis among women 43% to 31% (+12); Tillis wins men 50% to 36% (+14)

KEY POINTS:

1. Hagan’s +12 among women and Tillis’ +14 among men creates a 26-point gender gap
2. In 2012, the 20-point national gender gap in the race between Pres. Obama and Mitt Romney was the highest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since 1952
3. As of 9/6, there are 3,523,078 women registered to vote in NC; 2,960,583 men
4. Hagan will exploit the gender gap and registration advantage women have in North Carolina by making gender-sensitive issues front and center in her campaign

President’s Job Approval a Drag on Democrats

According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted September 4-7, 52% of Americans see the Obama presidency as a failure, with 42% saying it is a success.

• Obama’s job approval is 42%, 1% above his all-time low
• Obama’s Job Approval among blacks is 87%; among Hispanics 57%; among whites 31%
• 55% say Obama has done more to divide the country; 38% say more to unite

KEY POINTS:

1. As midterm elections are a referendum on the White House, the negative perception of this White House makes Obama a drag on Kay Hagan in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race
2. Obama’s job approval is highest among those least likely to turn out in mid-term elections (minorities, young voters, single women); lowest among those most likely to vote.

Nationally, there is consensus that Republicans are on track to win the majority in the U.S. Senate. That reduces U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s ability to intimidate would-be Tillis contributors, and strengthens the influence of potential U.S. Senate Republican leaders.

Here in North Carolina, the winner of the Hagan-Tillis U.S. Senate race comes down to whether the GOP has improved its digital data mining and voter turnout ground game enough to neutralize the potential Democrats have of using their proven ability to drive up turnout of those least likely to vote.

Republicans have known since 2012 that they were outsmarted by the Democrats with digital voter contact and turnout operations. North Carolina’s partisan political fortunes in 2014 come down to whether the GOP allows the Democrats to outsmart them again.

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Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report

  John N. Davis, Editor