John Davis Consulting

“A big, beautiful, Christmas present”

At 1:50 am Saturday morning, with Vice President Pence presiding over a Yea 51-Nay 49 vote, President Donald Trump and US Senate Republicans practically assured that a major tax reform bill will be under the GOP’s 2017 Christmas tree, one already piled high with gifts including record Dow Jones averages (Dec 1: 24,232), a 17-year low unemployment rate (4.1% in October), and a higher-than-expected 3.3% GDP for Q3 2017.Senate and House GOP leaders will begin ironing out their differences on Monday, with the President’s signature likely before the December break.

In keeping his pledge to “give the American people a big, beautiful, Christmas present,” Trump and the GOP Congress launch an opportunity for Republicans to have a happy political new year in 2018.

With the success of the tax reform bill, much of the credit for the nation’s economic growth in the coming months can be claimed by President Trump and Congressional Republicans. Trump will be credited with deal-making skills and GOP lawmakers will be credited with being able to govern.

Success breeds success. Look for US Senate and US House Republicans, along with vulnerable Democratic US Senators running in red states, to collaborate on a Trump-led agenda in 2018. You can expect an infrastructure bill (including “The Wall”), new trade deals with China and other Asian countries, and repatriation of $2.4 trillion foreign profits parked abroad due to a 35% corporate tax rate.

With more legislative successes now likely, Trump’s job approval and favorability ratings will grow at the very least to the mid-40s throughout 2018. Not remarkable, but enough to stop a Democratic wave election and keep the majorities in both the US Senate and US House in the grip of Republicans.

Democrats in Total Disarray Despite Flynn Indictment

Of course, Democrats will argue that Friday’s guilty plea by former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn for lying to the FBI is a game-changer. That other Trump insiders are likely to be ensnared by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russian collusion investigation.

However, corruption is Washington, DC has been so pervasive for so long, that as many Democrats are likely to be indicted as Republicans; maybe even more. Count the sexual predators.

As Republicans celebrate a major policy victory, Congressional Democrats are in disarray. A growing number are calling on Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to resign even as she calls on 88-year-old Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) to resign in the face of sexual harassment charges.

Pelosi started a firestorm of criticism over her initial response to charges against Conyers by defending him on NBC’s Meet the Press. Pelosi told Chuck Todd that Conyers deserved due process, and suggested that Conyers deserved special consideration because he, “… is an icon in our country.”

Shortly after midnight Saturday morning, Pelosi called on another US House Democrat to resign, Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen, after he was accused of sexual harassment late Friday, December 1. Not a good week for Democrats, one that included the US Senate Ethics Committee launching an inquiry into accusations of sexual misconduct claimed by five women against US Sen. Al Franken (D-MN).

Perhaps the most significant fallout from the explosion of sexual harassment claims is the number of Democrats who now believe that the party was wrong to defend President Bill Clinton against the women who accused him of sexual assault and rape.Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), told the NY Times that Clinton should have resigned in the aftermath of hisaffair witha 21-year-old White House intern.

Democrats have little chance to retake congressional and state legislative majorities if Nancy Pelosi is Minority Leader. She is indicative of the biggest problem facing the Democratic Party today: aging 20th Century leaders with 20th Century priorities. Old, 1960s era Civil Rights and Feminist Revolution activists still running around the county labeling everyone who disagrees with them “racists,” “sexists,” “misogynists,” “xenophobic,” “Islamophobs.”

The world, our nation and our state have changed too drastically for old school politicians touting last century’s problems and solutions to lead effectively. They must get out of the way for a new generation of young leaders to have an opportunity to make a difference for today’s greater good.

Per Gallup, the most important concern on the minds of voters in 2015, 2016 and 2017 has been government. That concern is driven by all leaders who have failed to get things done because they put their party, their power, their ideology … their ideals … ahead of solving the nation’s problems.

That’s where we are as a nation. That’s why we can’t get things done.

But President Trump is not about ideals. He is about getting things done.

President Trump Takes the “I” out of “Ideal”

If you take the “i” out of ideal, you get “deal.” That’s President Trump.

Trump is all about the deal, not the ideal. It’s fundamental to his success in business; it’s why he is a billionaire. And, it is an essential quality for getting things done here at home and around the word.

According to a New York Times story on the President’s five-nation, 12-day trip to Asia last month, the value of taking the “i” out of “ideal” was apparent and appreciated by the Chinese.

“After years of American presidents lecturing China on issues like political prisoners and democracy,” write New York Times reporters Javier Hernandez and Iris Zhao on November 9, “they are relieved to see a leader who seems to care more about making deals than idealism.”

The New York Times story noted that the tone of America’s conversation with China has changed for the better because Trump treated President Xi Jinping with respect; recognized China as an equal. “Now we can talk to each other,” said a political commentator for China Radio International in Beijing.

That’s where Democrats need to get if they want to recover politically by 2020. They must take the “i” out of their “ideal” too. They must change the tone of the conversation and become dealmakers.

Meanwhile, the GOP is better positioned for a happy political new year in 2018 thanks to the “big, beautiful, Christmas present” President Trump and CongressionalRepublicans will be putting put underthe tree, thanks to the Senate’s Yea 51-Nay 49 vote on tax reform Saturday morning, December 2, 2017.

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John N. Davis

Book John Davisherefor your 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,”identifies the state, national and international trends that suggest the likely winners of 2018 and 2020 elections.

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