John Davis Consulting

JUNE 19 UPDATE: June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea

June 19, 2018 Vol. XI, No. 11 11:13 am

World is safer thanks to two of the “worst leaders”

It’s hard to believe, but it was only a week ago, Tuesday, June 12, 2018, that President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made history by shaking hands in Singapore. People throughout the world are encouraged that there will be denuclearization and reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

As to political value, the event was spectacular. Even liberal news sources like The Atlantic published positive stories about the handshake seen around the globe.

Peter Beinart, contributing editor at The Atlantic and an associate professor of journalism and political science at the City University of New York, in a story titled, Why Can’t Democrats Give Trump Credit on North Korea?, wrote, “So, painful as it is, Democrats should give Trump the credit that, in this rare instance, he is due. In Singapore, two of the worst leaders in modern history met. And they made the world a safer place.”

Satisfaction with direction of country driving up Trump’s job approval

Bold leadership on the world stage along with record economic expansion and low unemployment at home are having a positive impact on President Trump’s job approval, a powerful predictor of the midterm elections referendum on the White House. Per Gallup’s June 18 national survey release:

1) Satisfaction with U.S. Direction Reaches 12-Year High, showing increase since Mar/Apr in positive views among voters, especially Republicans (up 14%) and Independents (up 11%)
a. Satisfaction credited to second longest economic expansion in U.S. history
b. Record low unemployment (3.8% in May)
c. President Trump’s negotiations with North Korea

2) Trump Job Approval at 45%, (Tying Personal Best):
a. Trumps previous 45% rating occurred first week after inauguration
b. 90% of Republicans approve of Trump’s leadership
c. 42% of Independents approve; 10% of Democrats approve

Political Implications: The successful summit with North Korea along with record economic expansion and low unemployment are adding height to the Trump-GOP defensive seawall against an ever-weakening Democratic political wave.

Political Bombshell: “We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied

NOTE: I only look at the political implications of events, leaving the policy debates to others. With that said, the political value of the FBI’s lapse of integrity at the highest levels of leadership disclosed in the Inspector General’s report cannot be overstated. It will be used throughout 2018 to politically discredit any and all FBI investigations.

On Thursday, June 14, Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz released his report on the FBI and DOJ’s handling of the Clinton email investigation, giving President Trump and the GOP everything needed to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation into the Trump campaign.
Select quotes from the report:

“(Trump’s) not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” asked FBI agent, Lisa Page. “No. No he’s not. We’ll stop it,” Peter Strzok replied.

Peter Strzok’s text “is not only indicative of a biased state of mind but, even more seriously, implies a willingness to take official action to impact the presidential candidate’s electoral prospects.”

“We have profound concerns about the volume and extent of unauthorized media contacts by FBI personnel that we have uncovered.”

“We identified instances where FBI employees improperly received benefits from reporters, including tickets to sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals, and admittance to nonpublic social events.”

The Inspector General’s report not only gives President Trump a means to politically discredit Robert Mueller’s investigation as a “Witch hunt,” but also a means to discredit the liberal media as “Fake news.” Trading FBI leaks for tickets to “sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals” plays right into President Trump’s strength in discrediting his opponents in the mainstream news media.

Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. Denuclearization and reunification of Korean peninsula. FBI and DOJ scandals. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.

Politically, June is on track to become the most consequential month of the midterm election year.

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Thanks for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

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