North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that
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North Carolina Among Most Politically Competitive States Complicated by Divided Government and Fast Growth
April 26, 2019 Vol. XII, No. 4 9:13 am
NC’s High Degree of Difficulty for Campaigning and Governing
Gallup’s annual Political Composition of the 50 US States, based on an aggregate of daily tracking polls across the year 2018, shows that Massachusetts is the most Democratic-friendly state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 29 points. The most Republican-friendly state is Wyoming, where the GOP enjoys a 34-point advantage over the number of Democrats.
North Carolina? Right in the middle. A perfectly balanced swing state. Among the Top 10 Most Competitive in the United States, says Gallup. Where 42% of North Carolina voters are Republican/Lean Republican and 41% are Democratic/Lean Democratic.
The Top-10 Most Democratic-friendly states are Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, New York, Maryland, California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and Washington.
The Top-10 Most Republican-friendly states are Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
The Top 10 Most Competitive States include Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas, and Ohio.
Being a Top 10 Most Competitive state means the degree of difficulty for winning campaigns and governing is high compared to the states where one party has a clear advantage. Two other factors are further complicating North Carolina politics, divided government and high population growth.
The National Conference of State Legislatures table of partisan power in the 50 states shows that only two of the Top 10 Most Competitive states have divided state governments, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Both have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
And then there’s this: four of the Top 10 Most Competitive states, including North Carolina, are also among the nation’s fastest growing. And 77% of North Carolina’s growth is from in-migration.
Dr. Rebecca Tippett with Carolina Demography in Chapel Hill, reported last December that North Carolina had the fourth largest number of newcomers migrating to the state. Where are they coming from? New York, New Jersey and California are the three leading states. The three leading countries adding to North Carolina’s in-migration newcomers are India, China and Mexico.
The Great Partisan Sorting of the United States
The fifty states are sorting themselves out by party.
In every state but one, Minnesota, both legislative chambers have partisan majorities from the same party. Per the New York Times, “It is the first time in more than a century that only one state has split control of its legislative chambers.”
Other than Minnesota, every state has either Republican majorities in both chambers (30 states) or Democratic majorities in both (18 states). Exception: Nebraska (unicameral/nonpartisan).
There are 22 states where Republicans have all of the power (Governor and legislature), 14 state where Democrats have all of the power, and 13 states where the power is divided, like North Carolina.
So, what can candidates running in 2020 expect in a highly competitive state with divided political power and a fast-growing population? You can expect expensive, close races. Examples:
- In 2016, Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper, Democratic nominee for governor, raised $24.2 million to $16.8 million raised by Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, considered the most vulnerable governor in the United States, and won by only 10,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast.
- In 2016, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won by only 52% of the vote, a close call considering her GOP opponent only spent $27,241 and won 48% of the statewide vote.
- In 2016, Democrats Auditor Beth Wood and Atty. Gen. Josh Stein, and Republicans Superintendent of Public Instruction Mark Johnson and Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey, won their races with only 50% of the vote plus their small margin of victory.
North Carolina is one of the few states rated most competitive that also has a divided government and high population growth driven by in-migration from around the country and world. It’s where politics is much like playoff hockey. Leave it all on the ice or go home. Go Canes!
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