John Davis Consulting

Scuppernongs May Perfume the Breeze at Night but the Strong Need Luck in NC to Win a US Senate Race

March 18, 2020       Vol. XIII, No. 3       9:13 am

NC Fifty-Year Trend: Only 2-of-9 US Senators Won a Second Term

North Carolina’s official state toast, The Old North State, written in 1904, proclaims that the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” is also the land where “the weak grow strong, and the strong grow great.” Let me assure you, that does not apply to North Carolina politics.

Here in the land of the long leaf pine, weak political leaders lose reelection campaigns and the strong leaders need right much luck to win another term, especially in US Senate races.

• In the last 50 years, only 2-of-9 US Senators from North Carolina won reelection.
• Since 1970, only US Sen. Jesse Helms, R-Union (1973-2003) and US Sen. Richard Burr, R-Forsyth (2005 to Present) won races for reelection to the US Senate from North Carolina.
• Republicans who lost races for another term since 1970: James Broyhill (1986), Lauch Faircloth (1993-1999), Elizabeth Dole, (2003-2009). Note: Sen. John East died.
• Since 1970, all NC Democratic US Senators seeking reelection lost: B. Everett Jordan (1958-1973), Robert Morgan (1975-81), Terry Sanford (1986-1993), Kay Hagan (2009-15).
• Two Democrats retired: Sen. Sam Ervin, Jr. (1954-1974) and Sen. John Edwards (1999-2005).

A positive advantage of living in one of the nation’s most politically competitive states is strong leadership. You have to be strong to win. But, in US Senate races, even if you are strong you also have to be lucky. And it’s the luck of presidential job approval that matters most.

Presidential Job Approval Can Make or Break a US Senate Candidate

On November 4, 2008, Kay Hagan, D-Guilford, became the first woman in United States history to defeat an incumbent woman US Senator when she outpolled Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-Rowan, by a whopping 53% to 44%. Hagan won because she was strong. And, because she was lucky.

Kay Hagan was a seasoned banker, a lawyer and five-term state Senator. Raised in a political family. Her father, Mayor of Lakeland, Florida; her uncle a Florida US Senator and Governor.

But Kay Hagan would not likely have defeated Liddy Dole in 2008 if it were not for luck.

• Lucky because in 2008, the election of the first African-American president in United States history drove turnout for North Carolina Democrats up to historic highs.
• Lucky because the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made her their number one opportunity race, spending more money in North Carolina in 2008 than in any other state.

But most of all, Democrat Kay Hagan was lucky in the fall of 2008 because Republican President George W. Bush’s job approval hit one of Gallup’s three all-time lowest marks of 25%. (Note: President Richard Nixon scored a 24% job approval after Watergate in 1974, and President Harry Truman scored the lowest ever low of 22% in 1952 after he fired national hero Gen. Douglas MacArthur.)

The luck of Presidential job approval, key to Kay Hagan’s defeat of Elizabeth Dole, was also a major factor in why Dole defeated Erskine Bowles in in 2002. Yes, Dole was a strong candidate. Duke University, Harvard Law, cabinet member with President Reagan and President GHW Bush, head of the American Red Cross. But luck was the winning difference.

In 2002, President George W. Bush enjoyed record high job approval because Americans united under his leadership after the 9/11 crisis. (Note: Bush’s job approval reached 90% immediately after the crisis, the highest in Gallup history.) Republicans took back the US Senate in 2002, the first time ever that the president’s party gained control of a chamber of Congress during a mid-term election year.

Elizabeth Dole won the US Senate seat held for 30 years by retiring Sen. Jesse Helms. Helms became the first Republican Senator in the 20^th Century from North Carolina in 1972, thanks to President Nixon’s 62% job approval and landslide reelection win. (Nixon won 49 of 50 states.)

Presidential job approval also contributed greatly to Republican Thom Tillis’s defeat of US Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014, when President Obama’s job approval fell to a low of 38%. It was the lowest rating of his presidency, driven down by horrific terrorist incidents and the Ebola virus crisis.

Now, in 2020, US Sen. Thom Tillis’s political fortunes are in the hands of a US President who will be judged in part by how he manages today’s Coronavirus crisis. Likewise, Sen. Tillis’s Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, D-Davidson, faces the same political reality: as goes the President’s job approval, so goes the US Senate race.

Yes, Cal Cunningham is a strong candidate. UNC Chapel Hill law degree. Army veteran. And, per all major political handicappers, like the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, the Tillis/Cunningham US Senate race is a toss-up. He has a 50/50 chance of winning.

But here in the land “where the scuppernong perfumes the breeze at night,” strong US Senate candidates do not grow great without right much luck from the job approval of the US president.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

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