John Davis Consulting

Impeachment? What Impeachment? First Quarter 2020 Review of the Politics of the Coronavirus Pandemic

March 31, 2020         Vol. XIII, No. 4       9:13 am

Note: I hope that you and your family and friends are well. I doubt any of us have ever seen our personal and business calendars with the word “canceled” written across so many events. Haircuts and vacation plans. Civic and family events. Professional opportunities. Tournaments. All canceled because of the dreaded Covid-19 pandemic. When thinking this morning about those who are struggling with the disease and its aftermath, writing about politics seemed trivial. Then I remembered that on November 3, all three branches of government at the federal and state level are at stake. All three branches. Federal and state. The leaders of future crises. I’ll keep writing. And praying. All the best. John Davis

Impeachment: Nothing of Consequence

On January 1, 2020, we began the year with the impeachment trial of President Trump looming large as likely the most politically consequential event of the year. The trial, which began on January 16 in the US Senate, ended on February 5, a colossal dud. An epic misjudgment of both the strength of the case against the president and the persuasive skills of House impeachment managers.

Now, looking back on the first quarter of 2020, I can think of nothing more politically insignificant than the impeachment trial. It reminds me of the 2016 Benghazi hearings that backfired on Republicans. Or the two-year investigation by the Justice Department into corruption at the Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State. The January 2020 DOJ finding? “Nothing of consequence.”

That’s the story of the impeachment trial of President Trump. Nothing of consequence.

Far more legally consequential than the impeachment of the president was the February 24 conviction of former movie mogul Harvey Weinstein on charges of rape and sexual assault, and the March 11 sentencing of Weinstein to 23 years in prison. Sexually exploitive relationships in the workplace are thereby checked for good by the threat of prison time.

Another legally significant event was the February 20 sentencing of Roger Stone, former political consultant to President Trump. Stone was sentenced to 40 months in prison after being found guilty of obstruction of justice, witness tampering and lying to investigators. Stone now joins Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal attorney, and Paul Manafort, former Campaign Chairman, behind bars.

The only political consequence of the impeachment trial turned out to be good for the embattled President. Per Gallup polling conducted during the heat of the trial (January 16 to 29), Trump’s job approval had “risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.” The poll also found that 52% of Americans favored acquitting Trump, to only 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

That’s why on January 29, it was no surprise that the Senate voted 51-49 against allowing additional time to interview more witnesses against President Trump. The president had won the argument in the only court that mattered politically to Republican Senators, the court of public opinion.

President Trump played the impeachment trial the same way President Clinton had done in 1999. He kept being President. A Phase 1 trade deal with China. The United States – Mexico – Canada trade agreement, a revision of NAFTA. He held political rallies in key primary and caucus states. He mocked the Democratic House leadership and the negative press coverage of the trial.

By the time President Trump delivered his third State of the Union address on February 4, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was so infuriated that she ripped her copy of the speech into shreds as she stood behind the President. She had struck out. No Russian collusion. No obstruction. No impeachment conviction.

The next day, February 5, the Senate acquitted President Trump on both articles of impeachment. Democrats needed 20 Republican Senators to reach the 67 votes to convict the president and remove him from office. They only got one, Sen. Mitt Romney from Utah.

Nothing of consequence.

Social and Political Consequences of the Coronavirus Pandemic

On February 5, the day of President Trump’s acquittal, few had given any thought to the news of an event that had happened fifteen days earlier in a hospital in Everett, Washington. That was the day the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the United States. A man in his 30s with pneumonia-like symptoms had just returned from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of a new virus called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Not to worry. Washington Governor Jay Inslee assured reporters that the risk of the coronavirus spreading remained low. Afterall, the patient was a single guy who lived and traveled alone.

But spread it did. Quickly. From one case in the state of Washington to 163,479 confirmed cases from all 50 states. As of today, March 31, the United States has the most confirmed cases of any country in the world. Likely the most politically consequential event of the year.

As the cases grew, so did the restrictions. Worldwide travel advisories. Cancellations.

• Major league baseball opening day was suspended, the first time in 132 years! The 146^th running of the Kentucky Derby has been rescheduled for September 5. The Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics rescheduled for July 23 to August 8, 2021.
• NCAA March madness basketball tournament was cancelled, the first time in its 81-year history. Seasons were suspended in all professional, college and high school sports leagues.
• Entertainment, forget it. Performing arts. Movies. On March 24, the US box office recorded zero revenue for the first time ever. First time ever. Restaurants, closed except for takeout.

Uncertainties surrounding the spread of the coronavirus caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plunge 1190 on February 27, the largest one day points decline in history. Again, on March 16, the Dow fell by 2997 points, another history-making point drop in a single day.

Meanwhile, the President, the Congress and the Governors, along with federal and state agencies, were working frantically to develop plans to mitigate the pandemic in the United States. Medical protection gear. Hospital beds and personnel. Drug therapies. Ventilators.

Slowly but surely consensus was growing among Americans. Yes, it’s as bad as they say. Yes, we all have to pull together to get beyond it. And the best way to pull together is to stay apart.

There were other worries beyond the disease. The economy. National, state, local. Personal. Too many unemployed. Too many businesses shuttered.

Finally, on Wednesday, March 25, there was cause for hope. The Senate passed the biggest economic stimulus bill in US history unanimously, 96 to 0. The market responded immediately. The Dow jumped by over 2,100 points, its biggest one-day percentage gain (11%) since 1933!

On Friday, March 27, the House passed the bill by voice vote. The President signed it into law on the same day. After many frustrating days of round-the-clock negotiations, a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill. Money for hospitals and first responders at the forefront of the coronavirus pandemic.

Money for small businesses and employees. Reasons to be optimistic that we will get beyond this and recover our health and economy. Insurance companies waved copays for coronavirus treatment. Banks waived mortgage payments for those in financial crisis. IRS waived tax filing until July 15.

Looking back over the first quarter of 2020, we have seen the worst and best of human relationships. We have known fear and hope. Disappointment and encouragement. We have known anger and great sadness. I don’t think I will ever get over the death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter and their friends in the January 26 helicopter crash in Calabasas, California. Loss beyond measure.

But the chapter of the first quarter of 2020 ends today. And now we must look forward.

On July 13-16, the Democratic National Convention will be held in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Former Vice President Joe Biden has become the presumptive presidential nominee, but without a whole lot of spontaneous enthusiasm. An inspired choice of a female running mate may be the needed spark.

Also, on tap for the summer, is the August 24-27 Republican National Convention in Charlotte. As the first quarter of 2020 ends, President Trump’s job approval is at an all-time high of 49% per Gallup, with over 60% approving of the job he is doing managing the coronavirus crisis.

As to whether the coronavirus will be the most politically consequential event of the year on General Election Day, November 3, 2020, or whether it will be overshadowed by an event of even greater concern, we do not know. What we do know is that Election Day is the day we choose the leaders who will manage the next crisis. And the one after that.

We began the first quarter with everyone at each other’s throats. Questioning each other’s political motives. Estranged. One side certain that impeachment was justified because President Trump had abused his power. The other side certain that impeachment was an abuse of power by Congress.

We begin the second quarter of 2020 much closer together. Bound by a common concern for each other because of the threat of the coronavirus. More willing to cooperate with each other to mitigate the threat. To look out for each other. To pray for each other. To mourn strangers who have died.

Impeachment? What impeachment?

– END –

Thank You for reading the John Davis Political Report

John N. Davis

Note: Feel free to forward this report.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622