Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control

by johndavis, July 21, 2020

Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however … The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy
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Governor Cooper’s Political Fortunes Threatened by DC Democrats and Political Fault Lines Beyond His Control

July 15, 2020 Vol. XIII, No. 6 3:13 pm

Handicappers say it’s Coopers to lose, however …

The political handicappers I trust at the national level give the odds of winning the North Carolina race for governor to Gov. Roy Cooper, D-Nash. Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) and Nathan Gonzales (Inside Elections) have the race rated as “Lean” Democratic. Larry Sabato (UVA – Sabato’s Crystal Ball) has the North Carolina race for governor as “Likely” Democratic.

I do not know of any non-partisan handicapper who gives the advantage in the governors race to Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, R-Mecklenburg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls conducted in North Carolina since January 2020 is Cooper 48.8% and Forest 41%. Cooper also leads in fundraising.

The Associated Press reported on Tuesday this week that Gov. Cooper has raised a total of $19.3 million as of mid-year 2020, with $14 million Cash on Hand. Lt. Gov. Forest has raised a total of $6.9 million as of mid-year, with about $2 million Cash on Hand.

Despite Gov. Cooper’s solid leads in the polls and fundraising, my sense is that things are too volatile nationally for any of the North Carolina statewide races to have odds greater than 50/50. The political costs of rioting, arson, and looting associated with the Black Lives Matter movement, along with the crime wave in Democrat-led big cities in which Black children are being killed while protesters carry signs that read “Defund the Police,” those political costs will be measured at the ballot box in November. I suspect those costs will be substantial.

Another political problem threatening Gov. Cooper’s future in the Governor’s Mansion is the number of national Democratic leaders driven by their hatred of President Trump. They seem to be totally unaware that Donald Trump is the master troll; a master at getting his opponents to hate him so they will retaliate vindictively and make mistakes. With Trump, everything is intentional.

As Roy Cohn, Trump’s mentor, once said, “I bring out the worst in my enemies, and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.”

Polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020

But, what about the polls, you say. Today’s Real Clear Politics average shows Biden ahead of Trump by 9 points. Well, do you know any Trump voters who dare tell anyone that they plan to vote for Trump for fear of retribution? Sure you do. And for those of you who answered “no,” yes, you do too, you just don’t know who they are.

Trump voters dare not disclose their voting intentions or they will be ostracized. Vilified. Persecuted to the full extent of the law. Unfriended. Labeled a racist. Get fired. Be boycotted, like the current boycott of Goya Foods after the CEO complimented the President during a White House visit.

Not since North Carolina’s conservative fire-brand US “Senator No” Jesse Helms was challenged in 1990 by former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, an African American, have so many voters been unwilling to say how they plan to vote. Two late polls in the 1990 General Election race showed Harvey Gantt up by four to six points over Helms. Gantt lost to Jesse Helms by six points, 53% to 47%.

As much as I respect pollsters, the bitterness on the left towards Trump as routinely expressed by many journalists, academics, and the Cancel Culture liberal activists, has shut down any and all honest conversations about the Trump Administration. So many Trump voters have clammed up, especially if a stranger from a polling firm calls, that political polls have become uniquely unreliable in 2020.

As if the partisan and ideological divides in America are not volatile enough, there are other major fault lines creating uncertainty as to election outcomes. Race in particular; the San Andreas fault of all political fault lines. A tectonic boundary with seismic activity too great to ignore. Yet, “Defund the Police” may create a backlash that will offset any Democratic gains in enthusiasm and unity from the Black Lives Matter movement, especially among suburban white women and older voters.

The US Supreme Court and lower federal courts have become a major fault line. Income and educational disparities are always major fault lines; urban/suburban/rural priorities. Gender. Religion. Generational transitions. Cultural identity. Social media.

Technology is a major fault line. No more toll collectors in those booths on the Pennsylvania Turnpike. A high-tech cashless toll system has now replaced 500 employees.

Global relationships are a fault line. The Cancel Culture. National debt and deficit spending. Poverty. Guns. Criminal justice. Police reform. Environment. Healthcare. Trump. All of these are major fault lines that could create an advantage for one party and a disaster for the other this fall.

Looking back over past races for governor, I would normally conclude that Gov. Cooper’s advantages argue that the race is his to lose. But that’s not true in 2020 because of all of the outside forces at play that Cooper has no control over. The North Carolina governors race is more the national Democrats to lose.

Cooper has done a good job in posturing himself for a second term. It’s his party leaders in DC and radical left activists who are the greatest threat to his political fortunes.