John Davis Consulting

Ousting Liz Cheney Carries Little Political Risk but Pinning Your Hopes on Trump is the Biggest Risk of All

May 14, 2021       Vol. XIV, No. 8       7:13 am

Trump’s irresponsible statement this week has political consequences

Is anyone surprised that US Senate Republicans have not elected Sen. Mitt Romney as a leader of their caucus, the only Republican Senator to vote “yes” to convict President Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial last year? Surely not.

So why is anyone surprised that US House Republicans voted against Rep. Liz Cheney as a leader of their caucus this week, one of only 10 Republicans to vote “yes” to impeach Trump for “incitement of insurrection” earlier this year? The 197 GOP House members who voted “No” on Trump’s second impeachment have a right to leaders who mirror their judgement on politics and public policy.

Of course, Democrats are delighted with both Romney and Cheney. The John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award was given to Sen. Romney on March 21, 2021, for going against all other Senate Republicans with his vote to convict President Trump for abuse of power. And it’s just a matter of time before the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award will be given to Rep. Cheney.

Meanwhile, Republican House members believe their best hope for winning back the majority is to remain loyal to former President Trump and the 74,222,960 Americans who voted for him last November, conservative voters who are hell bent to avenge Trump’s loss of the White House by turning out in big numbers against Democrats in the 2022 congressional races.

Ousting Rep. Cheney carries little political risk. But what about pinning your hopes on Trump?

On Wednesday, after US House Republicans stood with former President Trump and voted to oust Rep. Liz Cheney as the No. 3 caucus leader, Trump stated, “Liz Cheney is a bitter, horrible human being.” That’s a terribly irresponsible thing to say, one with political consequences.

If Trump continues to demean Republicans, he will divide the party and dissuade voters who were once reliable Republicans, like suburban voters. Trump could cost the GOP the House majority in 2022 like he did the US Senate majority earlier this year.

Doubt that? The proof is in the Georgia US Senate runoff election results.

Trump discouraged GOP turnout in Georgia US Senate runoffs

From Election Day November 3, 2020, to the Georgia US Senate runoff elections January 5, 2021, President Trump tweeted almost daily that his “landslide victory” was “stolen.” He actually suggested that Georgia Republican Governor Brian Kemp, Republican Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan and Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger were complicit in election fraud.

Trump tweeted that Georgia Governor Kemp was “the hapless Governor of Georgia” who refused to overrule his “obstinate Secretary of State.” Trump tweeted, “What a fool Gov Kemp of Georgia is,” and, “Demand this clown call a Special Session.”

President Trump actually tweeted that Republican Governor Kemp and Republican Lt. Governor Duncan were “a disgrace to the great people of Georgia.”

There is no doubt that President Trump discouraged GOP turnout in the January 5, 2021 US Senate runoff elections in Georgia by dividing the party and undermining the integrity of Georgia elections.

Here are the facts comparing January 5, 2021 county voting results to November 3, 2020:

• In the January 5, 2021 runoff election, Democrat Jon Ossoff improved on his November vote share in 157 of 159 counties.
• On the same day, Republican Sen. David Purdue improved on his November vote share in only 75 of 159 counties.
• For emphasis: In January 2021, Democrats failed to improve on their November vote share in only 2 of 159 counties. Republicans failed to improve their share in 84 of 159 counties.

Both Democrats and Republicans had an equal opportunity to improve their turnout in January, especially in the state’s largest counties around Atlanta where even a small percentage improvement could yield the winning difference in what everyone knew would be a close race. Democrat Ossoff improved his vote share in the top five most populous counties by 2.24% while Republican Purdue improved his vote share in those same five counties by only 0.22%.

Republican US Sen. David Perdue lost by 49% (2,214,979) to Democrat Jon Ossoff’s 51% (2,269,923). At the same time Democrats were doing everything they could to turn out their vote, including outperforming Republicans with absentee voters by 57% (1,783,877) to 43% (1,374,090), President Trump was discouraging GOP turnout by dividing Georgia Republicans against each other and undermining the integrity of Georgia elections by demeaning the Republican Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State, suggesting that they were complicit in election fraud.

Ousting Rep. Liz Cheney this week carries little political risk, but pinning your 2022 hopes on Trump is the biggest risk of all.

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Thank You for reading the John Davis Political ReportJohn N. Davis

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