North Carolina’s Democratic Islands are Surrounded by a Sea of Republican Precincts in Exurban Counties October 1, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 11 12:13 pm Democratic islands in a sea of Republican precincts So, how is it that Republicans won 13 of the 17 statewide races in North Carolina in 2020? The 2020 US Census results
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North Carolina’s Democratic Islands are Surrounded by a Sea of Republican Precincts in Exurban Counties
October 1, 2021 Vol. XIV, No. 11 12:13 pm
Democratic islands in a sea of Republican precincts
So, how is it that Republicans won 13 of the 17 statewide races in North Carolina in 2020? The 2020 US Census results show the biggest population gains were in Democratic-friendly urban counties and most of the population losses were in Republican-friendly rural counties. The reason is that exurbia, the regions just beyond the big city suburbs, are Republican-friendly areas that grew exponentially too!
As to the population losses in Republican-friendly rural counties, they have so few voters that their political impact is minimal. Those losses are offset by Republican gains in exurbia.
The only four statewide races won by Democrats in 2020 were Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor. Republicans won 6 of 10 Council of State races, including Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Public Instruction, Agriculture, Insurance and Labor.
Republicans won all five of North Carolina’s statewide appellate judiciary races in 2020, including two Supreme Court races and the race for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Republicans also won the U.S. Senate race (Tillis) and the presidential contest.
Republicans held both chambers in the North Carolina General Assembly in 2020 and won 8 of 13 races for the United States Congress.
North Carolina is a swing state … period. Neither party has a structural political advantage.
The fact is, urban growth is regionwide growth, including the surrounding Republican precincts, not just the Democratic-friendly precincts in anchor counties like Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, Buncombe, Cumberland and New Hanover.
North Carolina’s big cities are like Democratic islands in a sea of Republican-friendly precincts.
Population losses in rural counties have minimal political impact
Population losses in the state and nation in conservative, rural areas have a minimal political impact because the total number of voters in rural counties is so small.
The best illustration of that conclusion can be found in the following series of facts: The US Census shows that 1,636 (53%) of US counties lost population in the last decade, almost all of them rural. President Trump won 90% of all counties that lost population. However, that 90% represents only 19% of Trump’s total 74 million votes.
So, where did the rest of Trump’s 74 million votes come from? From that sea of Republican-friendly precincts in those exurban counties surrounding many of the Democratic-friendly urban anchor counties throughout the nation.
You can see the same results here in North Carolina. The US Census shows that 51% of North Carolina’s 100 counties lost population in the past decade, most of them conservative, rural counties. Trump carried 39 of the 51 counties, or 76% of North Carolina counties that lost population.
However, the 39 counties Trump carried that lost population were only 20% of his total vote in North Carolina (558,101 of 2,758,775). The other 80% of Trump’s votes in North Carolina came from counties that grew, especially those exurban areas that grew exponentially since 2010.
For example, Democratic-friendly Mecklenburg County added 195,853 people to its population during the past 10 years. Surrounding Republican-friendly counties, like Gaston, Union, Stanly, Rowan, Cabarrus, Lincoln, Iredell and Catawba, grew by a combined 159,044. They all went for Trump, giving him a total of 451,346 votes. Mecklenburg County gave Biden 378,107.
Urban growth in North Carolina is positive politically for both Democrats and Republicans.
Implications for redistricting in October and candidate filing in December
Public hearings on redistricting ended on Thursday, September 30. Congressional and state legislative maps will be drawn and litigated in October and November, all in time for candidate filing from December 6 through December 17. Primary Election Day is March 8, 2022.
Criteria adopted by a joint meeting of the Senate and House Redistricting Committees in August stipulates that “data identifying the race of individuals” and “partisan considerations and election results” shall not be used in the drawing of districts. Those are rare concessions by both sides.
My sense, based on population growth patterns, is that neither party is in a position to make some sort of lopsided power grab through remapping. At best, the parties will end up with an advantage in a little less than half of the districts. Meaning they will have to battle it out for the majority every two years for the rest of the decade.
Such is life in swing states like North Carolina, where either party can win or lose it all in 2022.
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John N. Davis
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