John Davis Consulting

Democrats’ Loss of National Moral Authority Threatens Their Candidates in North Carolina this Fall

March 31, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 4       1:13 pm

Biden is the Democratic Party’s Biggest Problem

I’m not quite sure how President Biden and congressional Democrats get out of the political hole they’ve dug themselves into in time to stop a Republican takeover of the US House and Senate this fall. On their watch, per the March NBC News poll, a staggering 71% of Americans said the country is “off on the wrong track.” Democrats have lost the moral authority to lead the nation.

The #1 problem facing the nation? Inflation. The cost of living.

Per the NBC News poll, “cost of living” is the #1 problem facing the nation, with six-of-ten (62%) Americans who said they are “falling behind” the cost of living; 31% said they were “staying about even.” Only 6% said they were staying ahead of inflation.

And who or what do voters blame for the rising cost of goods and services? “President Biden and his policies” leads the list in the March NBC News poll. Only 33% of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the economy; 63% disapprove. Not good for Democrats when historically the results of midterm elections are driven by presidential job approval.

Following “Cost of living” and “Jobs and the economy” on the most important problems list is the “War between Russia and Ukraine.” How much confidence do Americans have in Biden’s ability to manage this crisis? Only 12% say “A great deal of confidence; 16% say “Quite a bit of confidence.” That leaves 71% who have either “Very little confidence” (44%) or “Just some confidence” (27%).

President Biden has become the Democratic Party’s biggest problem.

Growing Likelihood of Biden Resignation; President Kamala Harris

The lack of confidence in Biden’s ability to manage the nation’s reaction to the war in Ukraine will likely be even lower after the President’s recent gaffe-prone trip to Belgium and Poland, gaffes that even the Washington Post described as “a frightening pattern.”

Biden set off alarms worldwide when he suggested to members of the North Carolina-based 82^nd Airborne Division that they would soon be fighting in Ukraine, saying, “You’re going to see when you’re there ….” Biden shocked his own White House staff by saying that NATO would respond “in kind” with chemical weapons if Russia used them first.

There has been an ongoing pattern of behavior that suggests Biden is not physically fit or mentally acute enough to effectively serve out his first term as president, much less a second term. Many polls have documented voter concerns about Bidens fitness, including the NBC News poll this January that found only 33% of Americans who thought President Biden had “the necessary mental and physical health to be president.” Observations like these over time led to my July 9, 2021 report titled,  Why Americans Can Expect and Republicans Should Prepare for President Kamala Harris Before 2024.

Democrats simply cannot take the risk that an 82-year-old Joe Biden will be strong enough to win a second term in 2024. Nor can they risk another Hillary Clinton disaster in the event Vice President Harris proves lacking as a presidential contender.

Unfortunately for Harris, playing second fiddle to a weak president jeopardizes her candidacy in 2024. Harris is likely more capable than the Biden White House staff will allow. She has been given the Administration’s worst self-imposed problems, like the crisis at the border with Mexico, without the authority or resources to solve them for fear she will upstage the president.

Responsibility without authority. That’s what this White House has given Harris. It’s no wonder she too is struggling with low job approval numbers.

On the other hand, to achieve the party’s aspirational goal of having a woman in the Oval Office, look for Biden to resign after the 2022 midterm elections, giving the Democratic Party what will likely be his greatest legacy, the first woman President of the United States of America.

Biden’s resignation will also give Harris the opportunity to develop the presidential timbre needed to be an effective candidate in 2024 for a full term in the White House. Frankly, it’s her only hope after being severely weakened politically by her association with Biden and his White House staff.

Weak Democrats in DC Threaten Party Nominees in NC

 A year ago, the April 2021 NBC News poll showed President Biden’s overall job approval at 53%, with only 39% disapproving. Today, only 40% approve of Biden’s job performance; 55% disapprove.

Will Democratic voters turn out when their top party leaders are such a disappointment?

The April 2021 NBC News poll showed Biden’s job approval among Black voters at 83%; it was down to 62% this March. Biden’s job approval among Latinos has dropped 20 points from 59% last April to 39%. Women from 61% approval last April to 44% in the latest NBC News poll.

Worst yet, among independent voters Biden’s job approval has plummeted 36 points from 68% last April down to 32% this March. Politically, it’s very difficult to get voters back after you lose them.

These negative trends are bad timing for Democrats everywhere, leaving little doubt that Democrats’ loss of national moral authority threatens their candidates in North Carolina this fall.

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John N. Davis

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