Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17?

by johndavis, April 13, 2022

Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17? April 13, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 5 8:13 am Why Only One-in-Five Republicans Support McCrory in GOP Primary NC GOP “Trump Republicans:” 60% of NC’s likely GOP primary voters consider themselves more a “Trump Republican” than a traditional
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Can Pat McCrory Disarm Gun Dealer Ted Budd Before the US Senate Republican Primary Shootout May 17?

April 13, 2022       Vol. XV, No. 5       8:13 am

Why Only One-in-Five Republicans Support McCrory in GOP Primary

NC GOP “Trump Republicans:” 60% of NC’s likely GOP primary voters consider themselves more a “Trump Republican” than a traditional conservative, per an April Civitas poll (Apr 1-3). Those saying, “More traditional Republican,” totaled 34.7%.
US Senate Race: This explains why 65-year-old former Gov. Pat McCrory has only 21% support in the GOP primary race, trailing Trump-endorsed candidate, 51-year-old US Rep. Ted Budd, a Davie County gun store owner, who leads with 32%. Undecided: 39%. (Only 30% is required to win the May 17 Republican primary.)
Key Question: Why does someone as well-known among Republicans as former Gov. McCrory have only 21% support in the GOP primary? Here is the either/or answer:
Either his campaign team is saving its ammunition for a specific date to launch ads (timing is everything in politics and McCrory’s team knows what they are doing, having helped both Senator Richard Burr and Senator Thom Tillis win all their races);
Or, likely GOP primary voters, the most conservative of the party faithful, think McCrory is a RINO (Republican In Name Only) who has lost two races for governor (2008 loss to Beverly Perdue and 2016 loss to Roy Cooper) and made the “mistake” of saying that Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election was “destroying democracy.”
WRAL-TV Poll: A new WRAL-TV poll (Apr 6-10) also shows Budd leading McCrory by 10 pts (Budd 33% to McCrory’s 23%; 33% Undecided).
Endorsements: In addition to Trump’s endorsement, Budd has the primary support of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Club for Growth Action, a conservative political fund that has spent $3.7 million on Budd’s behalf this election cycle.
Betting Odds: Bet against McCrory? Maybe. But I would not bet against his team of seasoned pros, led by Paul Shumaker, Capitol Communications. Look for a barrage of well-targeted, data-driven ads about three weeks out.

Political Implications of New CPI Report for Cheri Beasley’s Chances

CPI Politics: The two most politically devastating numbers in the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released Tuesday, April 12, are the 10% increase in “food at home” prices since March 2021 and the 48% year-over-year increase in gas prices.
Biden’s Job Approval: High food and gas prices will drive down job approval numbers for all Democratic US House and Senate incumbents and weaken the potential of their newcomer candidates. Biden’s job approval, already in a downward spiral (Real Clear Politics average April 13 is 41.3% approve; 52.7% disapprove), is about to drop below 40%.
“Putin did it!” No one is going to believe the Biden/DNC line, “Putin did it.” Bad news for Democrats in close races, like former Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court Cheri Beasley, the presumptive Democratic nominee for US Senate.
Democrat Cheri Beasley, who lost the 2020 race for NC Chief Justice to Republican Paul Newby by only 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast, will likely have an even more difficult time in 2022 considering Biden’s lousy job approval.
Forecasts: There is a growing consensus among the nation’s leading prognosticators that the GOP nominee in NC’s US Senate race is favored to win this fall. Cook Political Report says North Carolina’s US Senate race is “Lean Republican;” Inside Elections says “Lean Republican,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball says “Lean Republican.”
The new CPI report from the BLS, showing a year-over-year increase of 10% in “food at home” prices and 48% increase in gas prices, is what is driving the #1 problem facing the nation, “High cost of living/inflation,” so says Gallup’s March 2022 national survey.
Bottom line: If the GOP primary were held today, Congressman Ted Budd would win with greater than 30% of the vote. If the General Election were held today, the GOP nominee would defeat the presumptive Democratic nominee, Cheri Beasley.
Voting Information: North Carolina’s Democratic and Republican primaries are May 17. Vote by mail instructions here. In-person early voting begins Thursday, April 28, 2022, ending on Saturday, May 14, 2022. Find your early voting site here.