Swing State Republicans Create Model for Winning in November 2022 by Managing “The Trump Factor” June 3, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 6 3:13 pm Republicans Quietly Shift Priority to Winning Over Loyalty to Trump GA Republicans Have Winning on Their Minds: After losing the presidential race in 2020 and both US Senate races in 2021,
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Swing State Republicans Create Model for Winning in November 2022 by Managing “The Trump Factor”
June 3, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 6 3:13 pm
Republicans Quietly Shift Priority to Winning Over Loyalty to Trump
GA Republicans Have Winning on Their Minds: After losing the presidential race in 2020 and both US Senate races in 2021, Georgia Republicans are now putting winning over all other considerations, including former President Trump’s vindictive primary endorsements. A May Fox News poll asked Georgia Republicans what was more important in their choice for governor, “winning,” “Trump,” or “abortion.” Those who said “Can win in November” totaled 65%. Those who said “Supports Georgia abortion ban” totaled 35%. Those who said “Is a strong Trump supporter” totaled only 25%.
Trump’s Favorability Unfazed: Now get this, the same poll that showed Georgia Republicans rejecting Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue in the race for governor by 2-to1, opting instead to stick with incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, also showed Trump with a higher favorability score than Gov. Kemp (Trump 78% favorability; 72% for Kemp).
Managing “The Trump Factor:” Republicans learned a great lesson on how to manage “The Trump Factor” from Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 campaign. The key: Youngkin neither repudiated Trump nor kissed his ring. Youngkin focused on issues important to Virginia Republicans, like the economy, taxes, virus mandates, and K-12 education issues. That strategy helped Youngkin hold Republican voters in the General Election, including Trump voters, without alienating suburban swing voters.
Trump Attacked GA Gov. Kemp Relentlessly: Ever since former GOP President Donald Trump lost his race for a second term in the White House, he has attacked Georgia GOP Governor Brian Kemp for not accepting his claim that the election in Georgia was stolen. Trump called Kemp a “fool.” He said Kemp was “a disgrace to the great people of Georgia.”
This Time GA Republicans Weren’t Having It: Despite losing 61 lawsuits claiming voter fraud and numerous recounts in states like Georgia, Trump insisted Kemp cost him the Peach State. He even told a MAGA crowd in Perry, Georgia, last September, “Georgia must replace the disaster Brian Kemp.” He even said the Democratic nominee for governor, “might be better.” But this time, Georgia Republicans weren’t having it.
May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race over 21.8% for Trump’s challenger Sen. David Perdue. Four of Trumps statewide candidates lost.
Republican Turnout Up; Most Trump-Endorsed Candidates Win
Republican Turnout Up; Democrats Down: Per The Washington Post, turnout among Republicans in the 10 states that have held primaries is up 32% over 2018; Democrats down 3%. In North Carolina, 55% of the May 17 primary voters voted Republican (only 43% voted in the GOP primary in the 2018 midterm elections). And, despite the high-profile losses of Trump-endorsed candidates, most are winning (list includes Trump picks with no opposition):
March 1, TX: 32 of 33 Trump candidates won. Trump-backed AG Ken Paxton won a runoff election on May 24 against George P. Bush.
May 3, OH and IN: All 22 Trump Endorsements won, including J.D. Vance, a long-shot Ohio GOP US Sen. candidate.
May 10, NE and WV: 3-of-4 Trump candidates won (lost NE gov primary).
May 17, NC, PA, ID, KY: 23 of 25 Trump candidates won, including North Carolina GOP Primary picks, US Senate candidate Ted Budd (defeated fmr Gov McCrory), and US 13 pick Bo Hines (defeated K Daughtry/R Elmers). US 11: Rep. M Cawthorn lost to Sen. Chuck Edwards, while all other GOP incumbents endorsed by Trump won their races (Reps Greg Murphy, Virginia Foxx, David Rouzer, Dan Bishop, Richard Hudson, and Patrick McHenry).
In PA, Trump’s GOP US Senate candidate Dr. Oz won following a recount; PA State Sen. Doug Mastriano won GOP nod for Gov. In ID, Sen Mike Crapo won, while ID gov Trump pick, Lt Gov Janice McGeachin, lost. KY Sen Rand Paul won.
May 24, GA: Gov. Brian Kemp won 73.7% in GOP primary race, trouncing Trump’s hand-picked challenger. Trump’s favorability score among Georgia Republicans? 78%.
Republicans in swing states have created a new model for winning in the 2022 General Election. They neither repudiate Trump nor kiss his ring. Instead, they focus on issues most important to their voters, thereby keeping loyalists enthusiastic without alienating independents.
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John N. Davis
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