Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage

by johndavis, July 20, 2022

Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage July 20, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 7 1:13 pm Three Ticks to the Right of Center is Not Enough North Carolina is Middle America: Per the Cook Political Report’s just-released 2022 PVI (Partisan Voter Index) study, there are 25 states
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Only the Strong Survive North Carolina’s Darwinian Politics in the Absence of a Partisan Advantage

July 20, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 7 1:13 pm

Three Ticks to the Right of Center is Not Enough

North Carolina is Middle America: Per the Cook Political Report’s just-released 2022 PVI (Partisan Voter Index) study, there are 25 states more Republican-friendly than North Carolina and 25 more Democratic-friendly (includes DC). North Carolina has a slight but not failsafe advantage for Republicans (PVI score is R+3, meaning the statewide Republican average for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections is 3 points higher than the national Republican average).

For comparison: Wyoming, the most Republican of all states, has a PVI score of R+25. On the other end of the partisan spectrum, the District of Columbia has a PVI score of D+43, meaning the Democratic average is 43 points higher than the national Democratic average. Any idea how many Registered Republicans in DC? A whopping 5.37%.

More Republican than NC: The 25 states where the GOP has a greater advantage than North Carolina are Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota, Alabama, Tennessee, Nebraska, Utah, Louisiana, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, Kansas, Missouri, Alaska, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

More Democratic than NC: The Democratic advantage is greater than in North Carolina in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Hawaii, California, New York, Washington, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Connecticut, Oregon, New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

Democrats/Republicans Share Statewide Wins: In North Carolina, Democrats and Republicans have practically an even chance of winning statewide. We have a Democratic Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor on the Council of State, along with a Republican Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, and Commissioners of Agriculture, Labor, and Insurance.

Other examples demonstrating North Carolina’s shared partisan advantage: We have a Democrat majority on the Supreme Court with a Republican Chief Justice who won by 401 votes of 5,391,501 cast; Trump (49.93%) barely beat Biden (48.59%) in 2020, and GOP US Sen. Thom Tillis won only by 1.8% despite his opponent’s sensational sex scandal.

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Race is Ted Budd’s to Lose

R+3 PVI + Red Wave Election Year = Advantage Republican: North Carolina is only three ticks to the right of center politically, not enough to give the GOP a predictable advantage in the U.S. Senate race to replace Sen. Richard Burr. However, the following facts from a July New York Times/Siena College Poll argue for a red wave election year, which combined with the R+3 PVI, give Republican Ted Budd the edge over Democrat Cheri Beasley:

Biden’s overall job approval is only 33%; disapproval 60%
77% of Americans say the US is heading in the wrong direction
64% of Democrats prefer another presidential nominee in 2024
An astounding 94% of 18 to 29-year-old Democrats want someone else

Most national forecasters agree that Budd has the advantage:

FiveThirtyEight says the odds Ted Budd wins is 74 in 100
Cook Political Report gives Budd “the edge” over Beasley
RealClear Politics average of all polls shows Budd 45.6%; Beasley 41.8%
UVA’s Sabato Crystal Ball says “Leans Republican”
Inside Elections says “Lean Republican”

North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is Ted Budd’s to lose.

The positive side of being a swing state square in the middle of all states on the partisan political spectrum is that our 35 statewide races are so competitive that we are blessed with strong leaders. Only rarely do political circumstances allow a weak candidate to prevail.

Oh sure, Democrats think all the Republicans are weak and Republicans think all the Democrats are weak. Thankfully, they are both wrong.

In the Darwinian world of North Carolina politics, only the strong survive.

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