Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

by johndavis, October 27, 2022

Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime October 27, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10 8:13 am NOTE: This is Part 1 of two reports under the title, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part
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Part 1: GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime

October 27, 2022 Vol. XV, No. 10 8:13 am

NOTE: This is Part 1 of two reports under the title, GOP to Gain Power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats Pay Dearly for Economy and Crime. Part 1 focuses on how Democrats lost the moral authority to lead the nation, with implications for the US Senate majority and North Carolina’s US Senate race. Part 2 will cover the US House, the North Carolina General Assembly, and the North Carolina Appellate Judiciary races.

#1 Political Mistake Made by Democrats

DEMOCRATS’ #1 MISTAKE: The number one reason Democrats are now on track to lose majorities in both the US Senate and House, taking down many North Carolina Democrats with them, is that they have governed as if most voters are “very liberal,” when in fact, only 14% of Americans consider themselves “very liberal” (total “liberal” is 28%), per the new NBC News October poll, released Sunday.

Democrats will pay dearly on November 8 because they allowed their agenda to be dictated by the radical “woke” liberal extremists who say voters are racists if they raise concerns about rising violent crime rates and declining education achievement scores.

Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Jim Messina, former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, acknowledged the problem with Democratic extremists when he said, “We’ve got to stop listening to a very small minority of the party.”

DEMOCRATS WERE WELL WARNED: Pollsters have reported all year that voters were more concerned about the cost of living, immigration, and rising violent crime rates than about the January 6 Committee, abortion, or climate change. All year.

In my report on January 28, 2022, North Carolina Democrats Will Suffer Politically If Biden and DC Democrats Continue to Claim Liberal Mandate, I wrote, “Many North Carolina Democrats will lose their campaigns in 2022 if President Biden and other national party leaders continue to disappoint their base and alienate independent voters by governing as if they were given a liberal mandate by voters in 2020.”

The #1 problem facing the nation then and now? Inflation. The cost of living.

The new NBC News poll, jointly conducted by Democratic and Republican firms, Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, respectively, reveals that 71% of voters surveyed still say the country is “off on the wrong track,” the same number found in the March NBC News poll, with only 20% saying the country is “headed in the right direction.”

Democrats drove the country off on the wrong track by governing as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate to govern as they pleased without regard for the most important concerns of American voters.

There never was a Democratic mandate in America. Only 4-in-10 Americans think of themselves as Democrats/Lean Democratic. And, there certainly never was a “very liberal” mandate, as only 14% of Americans claim the “very liberal” label.

The GOP is about to gain power from DC to Raleigh as Democrats pay dearly for putting the priorities of a small minority of “woke” Democrats ahead of those of most voters.

Final 2022 Big Picture Forecast: US Senate

US SENATE MAJORITY: On November 8, 2022, Republicans will retake the majority in the U.S. Senate, thereby elevating 80-year-old GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell back to the enviable position as the most powerful Member of Congress.

The average midterm election year loss of the party in the White House is four U.S. Senate seats, giving the GOP a potential majority of 54 to 46 Democrats (includes independents who caucus with Democrats, Sen. Angus King, ME, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, VT).

REPUBLICANS LIKELY TO HOLD WI, PA, OH: Republicans are now on track to hold seats once thought vulnerable, including Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson), Pennsylvania, where GOP newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz is now, after Tuesday night’s debate, likely to defeat Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who was weakened by a stroke in May, and Ohio, where polls show Republican J.D. Vance now leading with 47.3% in the Real Clear Politics average to 45.3% for Democrat Tim Ryan.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican Ted Budd, who leads Democrat Cheri Beasley by 48.5% to 44% in the RCP average, is now likely to win North Carolina’s US Senate race.

The latest North Carolina Marist poll, conducted from October 17-20, shows inflation as the #1 “top of mind” issue facing voters and President Biden’s job approval at only 38% overall among registered voters. Even worse for Beasley, only 29% of independent voters approve of Biden’s job performance, contributing to Budd’s growing advantage in the race.

THREE GOP US SENATE PICKUPS: Three US Senate Democratic incumbents are so clearly threatened by the growing national Republican momentum that they are now more likely to lose. The three most at-risk Democrats are Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

GEORGIA: Not enough has been said about the fact that Georgia Republican US Senate nominee Herschel Walker will benefit greatly from the fact that Georgia Republicans know that they cost the GOP the U.S. Senate majority by not turning out in the two U.S. Senate runoff elections in January 2021. They will not make that mistake again.

Biden carried Georgia by only 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Look for lower turnout among likely Democratic voters for three reasons: one, cost-of-living is the number one issue on the minds of voters, two, Atlanta is number two on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 11.7%, and three, President Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average.

Walker also benefits from a well-executed campaign by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who leads Democratic challenger Stacy Abrams 51% to 44.3%, per the RCP average.

ARIZONA: Biden also carried Arizona by a slim 0.3% in the 2020 presidential election. Biden’s job approval on inflation is 33.8%, per the RCP average, at a time when Phoenix is number one on the list of highest inflation rates among metropolitan areas at 13%.

Arizona Republican Blake Masters is also likely to defeat incumbent US Sen. Mark Kelly because of the added factor of the crisis at the border with Mexico. Only 35.6% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of immigration, with 60.2% disapproving.

NEVADA: Nevada GOP nominee Adam Laxalt is now leading in the polls with 46.3% to 46% for Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, per Real Clear Politics. An incumbent running behind a challenger bodes ill for Cortez Masto, especially with Republicans gaining momentum nationwide as voters lose confidence in the ability of Biden and Democrats to manage the triple threats of inflation, immigration and crime.

Democrats are likely to lose the US Senate and House because they governed as if they had a partisan or ideological mandate. No one has a partisan or ideological mandate in 2022.

The mandate is to focus on solving the most important problems on the mind of voters.

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