Rare Dual Conservative Dominance on US & NC Supreme Courts Likely for Years to Come May 31, 2023 Vol. XVI, No. 3 10:13 am Dozens of federal and state precedents will be overruled Conservative Through 2028: This is a unique era in which both our federal and state Supreme Courts are solidly conservative at
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Rare Dual Conservative Dominance on US & NC Supreme Courts Likely for Years to Come
May 31, 2023 Vol. XVI, No. 3 10:13 am
Dozens of federal and state precedents will be overruled
Conservative Through 2028: This is a unique era in which both our federal and state Supreme Courts are solidly conservative at the same time, and are likely to stay that way for years to come.
The NC Supreme Court is 5-2 conservative. Conservatives will have an advantage on the state Supreme Court for a minimum of the next five years.
Not including Republican Chief Justice Paul Newby, two Republican Justices, Berger and Barringer, do not have to stand for election until 2028; two Republican Justices, Dietz and Allen, do not have to stand for election until 2030. That guarantees the court will be a minimum of 4-3 conservative through 2028. But it’s more likely to stay 5-2 conservative through 2028.
By law, Republican Chief Justice Newby faces mandatory retirement at the age of 72 in May 2027. If there is a Democratic governor, a Democrat will be appointed Chief Justice, leaving the state’s high court with a four-seat Republican majority: Justices Berger, Barringer, Dietz and Allen.
However, odds are that the North Carolina General Assembly will change the mandatory retirement age from 72 years to 75 years before Chief Justice Newby faces required retirement in 2027. If that happens, Republicans will be guaranteed a 5-2 majority through 2028. Maybe even more.
The only justices to stand for election in 2024 and 2026 are the two lone Democrats, Justices Morgan and Earls respectively. Morgan has announced that he is not seeking another term next year. A GOP win would mean the court would become 6-1 Republican through 2028. (Context: Democrats enjoyed a 6-1 majority on the NC Supreme Court in 2020.)
New GOP-Friendlier Maps Certain: You can count on new federal and state maps soon. That means the 14 congressional districts will shift from 7 Republican friendly, 6 Democratic friendly and 1 tossup, to possibly a 10-seat Republican-friendly delegation with 1 tossup seat and 3 safe Democratic seats. Safe Democrats: Rep. Adams, Metrolina Region; Rep. Foushee, Triad; and Rep. Ross, Triangle.
The Republican General Assembly will also likely gerrymander new legislative districts that will guarantee GOP super majorities for the remainder of the decade. And you can count on the 5-2 GOP-majority NC Supreme Court to rule that any new GOP-gerrymandered districts are constitutional.
On April 28, 2023, the 5-2 Republican NC Supreme Court overruled last year’s 4-3 Democratic NC Supreme Court’s decision against GOP-gerrymandered maps. They have also overruled the Democrat-majority court’s ruling against voter-ID law.
The governor has no veto authority over anything to do with reapportionment, and the US Supreme Court is no longer taking partisan gerrymandering cases. So, Republican-friendlier maps are inevitable.
US Supreme Court on a Conservative Tear: The US Supreme Court is 6-3 conservative, and on a precedent-altering tear. Last year, they overturned abortion rights, struck down a New York law that limited guns in public, rejected Maine’s ban on state aid to religious schools, and sided with a coach over a right to say a prayer on the 50 yard line after the football game.
Before June is over, the court is likely to overturn a 2003 ruling allowing race to be considered as a factor in college admissions in cases involving policies at UNC and Harvard. The court will also likely rule conservatively on a religious liberty issue, whether a website designer is required to design a wedding website for a same-sex couple despite religious convictions against homosexuality.
All in all, a unique conservative era on the state and federal Supreme Court, both at the same time, and likely for years to come.
If you are conservative, break out the champagne. If you are not, my only recommendation is Goody’s Extra Strength Headache Powder.
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Thank you for reading the John Davis Political Report
John N. Davis
Check John Davis’s availability to speak in 2023 at www.johndavisconsulting.com
