If Biden Fails To Win CNN’s Presidential Debate Tonight, He Will Not Likely Be The Nominee June 27, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 5 11:13 am Biden must convince Democrats that he can defeat Trump If President Biden fails to win CNN’s presidential debate tonight in Atlanta, he will not likely be the nominee chosen at
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If Biden Fails To Win CNN’s Presidential Debate Tonight, He Will Not Likely Be The Nominee
June 27, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 5 11:13 am
Biden must convince Democrats that he can defeat Trump
If President Biden fails to win CNN’s presidential debate tonight in Atlanta, he will not likely be the nominee chosen at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August to take on former president Donald Trump. If Trump fails to win tonight, he will still be the Republican nominee chosen in Milwaukee in July.
The reason tonight’s debate is a must win for Biden can be seen in new polling results released today by Gallup revealing that “nearly twice as many Republicans (79%) are pleased with Trump being the GOP nominee as Democrats (42%) are with Biden leading their party’s ticket.”
The number one priority of Democrats in 2024 is to defeat Donald Trump. If, after tonight’s performance, the most influential Democratic insiders are persuaded that President Biden simply lacks the physical strength and mental acuity to be competitive against a street brawler like Trump, they will have no choice other than to initiate the process whereby Biden announces he will not seek a second term.
The Democratic Party needs a winning national ticket; they need a ticket that can re-energize the Democratic base, stop the erosion of heretofore loyal Democratic constituencies like minorities and young voters, and a ticket that can win a majority of Independent voters.
Most Americans say Biden lacks presidential leadership qualities
Biden’s politically influential numbers, like job approval and favorability, are dismal. Per Gallup’s new study, 56% of Democrats would prefer another candidate. Biden’s favorability rating is 37%, “his lowest since 2007.” The same survey shows Trump’s favorable rating at 46%.
Looking only at the favorability ratings among partisans towards their presumptive nominees, 91% of Republicans view Trump favorably; 81% of Democrats view Biden favorably.
On the question of who voters think “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have,” the Gallup results show only 38% agree with that statement as applied to President Biden; 46% agree that former President Trump has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.
Among Independents, Trump leads Biden by 43% to 35% on the question of who has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have. And on the issues, Independents say that they agree more with Donald Trump (46%) than Joe Biden (34%) on the issues that matter most to them.
Note: It’s critical for you to know that the new Gallup survey was conducted after Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and through June 23.
Most Americans say Biden is “too old” and “too liberal”
Simply put, Biden’s biggest problems are he is seen by most Americans as too old to be president and too liberal. Per Gallup, an overwhelming 76% of Americans are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” that Joe Biden is too old to be president (including 44% of Democrats). Comparatively, only 38% of Americans feel the same way about Trump’s age.
As to ideology, 56% of Americans say President Biden is “too liberal.” Comparatively, only 44% of Americans think Trump is “too conservative.” As to Independents, 56% say Biden is too liberal, while 43% say Trump is too conservative.
Everywhere you look, there are flashing caution lights about Biden’s competitiveness. Today’s New York Times polling averages show Trump ahead of Biden in every battleground state, including Wisconsin (+1), Michigan (+2), and Pennsylvania (+2). Trump is ahead of Biden by four-points-or-greater in the battleground states Nevada (+4), Arizona (+4), Georgia +5), and North Carolina (+5).
Per today’s Real Clear Politics polling averages, former President Trump leads President Biden 47.4% to 44.2% in polls conducted in the same seven battleground states.
If Biden loses tonight, look for President Harris and chaos in Chicago
The bottom line is that President Biden has failed to gain traction in his race for a second term and must be replaced as the party’s nominee if he fails to win tonight’s debate in Atlanta. Trump is simply too strong a contender for a challenger weakened by age who has lost not only the confidence of the American people, but who has lost the confidence of his own party.
If Biden chooses not to seek reelection, then Democrats face the politically fragile matter of the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris is even weaker than Biden and also must not be the party’s nominee. No Democrat wants to see a repeat of the Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race of 2016.
Vice President Harris absolutely must be in on any deal in which she helps select and promote the ideal Democratic Party ticket in exchange for something really big, like a lifetime appointment.
Of course, the biggest barter exchange that Kamala Harris could demand is the opportunity to serve as president the last five months of the Biden administration. Biden could resign the presidency, thereby ushering Harris into the Oval Office as America’s first woman president. A Kamala Harris presidency would certainly energize Democrats.
(If Harris becomes president, the odds are as good as not that North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper would be on the short list of those likely chosen by President Harris to be Vice President. They became friends when both served as Attorney General of California and North Carolina respectively. She has been in the state six times this year.)
If the President-Kamala-Harris-in-exchange-for-her-enthusiastic-support-of-a-Democratic-Party-winning-ticket scenario plays out, Democrats still have to get past what could be a chaotic convention.
No Democrat wants to see a convention in Chicago in August like the one 100 years ago. That’s when in 1924 the Democrats finally nominated John Davis, a prominent lawyer and diplomat from West Virginia, after 103 ballots. The convention, the longest in US political history, was held at Madison Square Garden in New York City from June 24, 1924, to July 9, 1924. Davis was defeated by Republican Calvin Coolidge that November.
If President Biden fails to win CNN’s presidential debate tonight at 9 o’clock EST in Atlanta, he will not likely be the nominee chosen at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
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John N. Davis
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