Labor Day Forecast 2024: Look for Divided Executives and Legislators Checked by GOP Courts September 2, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 8 1:13 am Great News! Extremists checked by divided government! The best way to give you an idea of what to expect on November 5, 2024, is to remind you about what happened 28 years
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Labor Day Forecast 2024: Look for Divided Executives and Legislators Checked by GOP Courts
September 2, 2024 Vol. XVII, No. 8 1:13 am
Great News! Extremists checked by divided government!
The best way to give you an idea of what to expect on November 5, 2024, is to remind you about what happened 28 years ago on November 5, 1996. Here’s a summary:
On November 5, 1996, voters in North Carolina chose GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole for the White House and conservative firebrand Jesse Helms for the US Senate. But then, the same voters on the same day elected Democrats to all 10 state executive positions, including progressive Democrat Jim Hunt for governor. Then, the same voters who elected Senator “No” (Helms), passed a $1.8 billion bond for public school construction projects and passed a Constitutional amendment giving the Democratic governor veto power for the first time in state history.
Wait, it gets better. On that same day, November 5, 1996, North Carolina voters elected a Republican majority to the state Supreme Court, a Democratic majority to the state Court of Appeals, a Republican-led House of Representatives (Speaker Harold Brubaker), a Democrat-led state Senate (President pro tempore Marc Basnight), and split the 12-member Congressional delegation right down the middle, six Republicans and six Democrats.
At the federal level in 1996, Democratic President Bill Clinton won a second term, but had to contend with a Republican-led House of Representatives (Speaker Newt Gingrich) and a Republican-led US Senate (Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott). Clinton also had to deal with a 7-2 Republican-appointed US Supreme Court (Republican appointees: Chief Justice Rehnquist, Stevens, O’Connor, Scalia, Kennedy, Souter, and Thomas. Democratic appointees: Ginsburg and Breyer).
So, now you know what to expect on November 5, 2024. Extremists on the left and right will be checked by divided government. That’s great news on this Labor Day 2024!
Republicans will dominate judicial branch no matter what
US Supreme Court: In 2024, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the US Supreme court. That will not change this November, no matter who is elected to the executive and legislative branches in DC.
NC Appellate Judiciary: Likewise, there is a 5-2 Republican-elected majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court, and an 11-4 Republican-elected majority on the North Carolina Court of Appeals. Democrats have no chance of winning a majority on the state’s appellate courts in November due to limited opportunities. There is only one NC Supreme Court race (Democrat Allison Riggs vs. Republican Jefferson Griffin) and three Court of Appeals races. For profiles see State Board of Elections Judicial Voter Guide here.
North Carolina General Assembly
State Senate & House: Republicans have become masters at gerrymandering state Senate and House districts to their advantage and successfully litigating the constitutionality of their maps. Per Dave’s Redistricting site (click left column “Partisan Lean” under Districts), Republicans have an advantage in 26 of the 50 Senate districts. Republicans can win the 30 seats needed for a supermajority if they hold their districts and pick up four more from the five competitive districts or 19 Democratic-friendly districts.
Per Dave’s Redistricting site (click left column “Partisan Lean” under Districts), Republicans have an advantage in 69 of the 120 House districts. Republicans can win the 72 seats needed for a supermajority if they hold their districts and pick up three more from the three competitive districts or 48 Democratic-friendly districts.
Regarding fairness in mapmaking, those standards were set by Democrats long ago.
NC Governor & Council of State
NC Governor & Council of State: Here in North Carolina, a divided government picture is unfolding. If the election were held today, Democrat Josh Stein would win the keys to the governor’s office, good news for the Democrats, but, as noted above, there is no scenario whereby Democrats can win the majority of seats in either the North Carolina Senate or House of Representatives.
You can expect big turnover on North Carolina’s 10-member Council of State, with at least seven new executives in the offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Labor Commissioner, and Auditor (incumbent appointed).
Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, first elected in 1996, is certainly favored to win her race for another term, as is six-term Republican Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler. They are well-know, highly regarded North Carolina leaders. Republican Mike Causey, Commissioner of insurance, also has an advantage thanks to experience gained in two successful statewide races.
The other down ballot statewide executive races feature Democrats and Republicans who are relatively unknown statewide. As North Carolina is a swing state where neither party has a statewide structural advantage, those races are simply too-close-to-call.
Although Republican presidential nominees have won all but one race in North Carolina since 2000 (Obama 2008), Republican gubernatorial nominees have lost all but one race in North Carolina during the same time frame (McCrory 2012).
Welcome to North Carolina, the nation’s #1 state for ticket-splitting (and basketball).
NC Republicans may have buyers remorse in governor’s race
Mark Robinson, Republican candidate for governor, has a big problem. Republicans.
Per today’s Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, Democrat Atty. Gen. Josh Stein is leading Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by 48.2% to 39.5%. Polls used in the RCP average include those sponsored by conservative groups like Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation) and FOX News.
Robinson’s weak support among fellow Republicans can be clearly seen in the results from the Carolina Forward North Carolina poll released August 12, 2024. The poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 46%. In the governor’s race, the poll shows Robinson losing to Stein 36% to 46%. Here’s why:
- Trump has 91% Republican support; Robinson only 69%
- Trump has 42% Independent voter support; Robinson 29%
- Trump has 40% women voters; Robinson 30%
- Trump has 60% rural voters; Robinson 45%
Robinson’s own unchecked words are his Achilles Heel. Throughout July and August, videos of Robinson preaching in churches have been featured in TV attack ads in which he makes politically insensitive statements like, “Christians are called to be led by men, not women.”
Perhaps the most self-destructive TV ad is one in which Robinson implies that women are to blame for unwanted pregnancies because they “weren’t responsible enough to keep their skirt down.”
Although there is still time for Robinson to recover, at the starting gate it appears that his own party is having buyer’s remorse regarding his candidacy. Odds favor a Stein win.
The only existential threat to our democracy
On September 10, 2024, at 9:00 pm Eastern, the National Constitution Center will host the 2024 ABC News Presidential Debate. If there is a clear winner, one or the other will establish winning momentum. But it doesn’t end there. I was certain in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced on October 7, that Trump could not recover politically from his lewd comments about women. It was over.
But then, on October 28, Hillary Clinton’s winning momentum was dashed by a letter to Congress from FBI Director James Comey reminding voters that she was suspected of having kept classified documents on her personal email server. That she may be as dishonest as many suspected.
On November 5, 2024, American voters are more likely than not to choose divided government in defiance of the doomsday prophets on the left and the right who foster political intolerance and legislative gridlock by proclaiming that those who disagree with them are an existential threat to our democracy. The only existential threat to our democracy are those who foster political intolerance.
Happy Labor Day 2024!
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John N. Davis
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